Formula to equalize acca profit

£500.

Worth it, just sign an NDA and it’s yours. 😉

I don’t know how you can guarantee profit on an acca. Or equalise profit on the acca insurance. I’ve never really bothered getting my head around it as I just never bothered laying them, just took the long term value approach. I understand sequential lays etc but to adjust stakes for equal profit or guaranteed profit i never bothered. But if I take this to the shops then I could have huge liabilities and its not an option any more to just leave the variance average out.

For a £50 acca refund offer. You have spent £50 in the bookie to qualify.

1. If you lay the full £51.02 on the first leg to reclaim the bookie loss then when the first leg wins your liabilities will start growing too high by the time you get to the end.

2. If you lay less than the £50 then when the first legs wins you are down a little bit. But you have the value in the potential of a free bet to make up the small loss. But how to unlock or extract the value in the potential free bet is another thing. The work required to extract this value too would mean you would be probably laying small amounts on the acca even after it is dead.

Can someone give an example of oddsmonkey or an online tool that does this.

For example of what I mean if you start with a £50 acca first leg is 5/5.1 and then next four legs are 1.2/1.25. Total bookie odds is therefore 10.37 and return would be £518. Probability it wins based on exchanges lay odds is 8% and probability only one leg loses would be 40%. The value of the actual acca is (probability it wins * payout if it wins) £41.63. The value of the free bet offer is (probability you qualify for free bet * value of free bet) £16.38. So in total its a value bet, you have about £58.01 expected value.

If the first leg wins the value of the acca goes up and the value of the free bet offer changes too, either up or down as it can become less likely you hit the free bet. So you can equalise the first lay so that the value you have is the same either way – win or lose.

So lay £41.80 @ 5.1. If the leg wins then you are £171.38 down plus the £50 you spent on the acca – but the acca is likely still worth about £212.34 (based on payout and probs) and free bet offer still worth £16.38 (based on value and prob) – so your position would be +£7.34. If it loses then you are £40.96 up (your stake minus commission). You are £50 down that you spent in the bookies (now lost). But you have 4 short legs which if all win (40% prob) you have free bet – this is still about £16.38 in value – so your position is again +£7.34. Same value whether first leg wins or loses.

But these positions are all contingent on being able to extract value from the “potential” of winning a free bet. And the value will differ slightly depending on which leg loses. I don’t see how it’s possible to over lay the first leg to realise instant profit if the first leg loses and still keep your liabilities down enough to be able to lay to the end with still profit…

Can someone give an example of what the online tool says that you should lay for an acca like 5/5.1 and then four 1.2/1.25? Do you still continue to lay small amount to realise the potential of winning a free bet even after one leg loses?

What do ppl mean when they say guaranteed profit on acca’s?

5/5.1 and four 1.2/1.25

Profit, £6.48. (£50 stake, your odds aren’t that tight)
Laying £41.19 on the first leg.
If it wins, lay £209.31 on second leg and expanding with every consecutive win.
If it loses, lay £16.45 on second leg and expand with every consecutive win.
Any point you have 2 losses, stop laying and you’re still in profit.

Don’t ask me how this works, I just blindly follow the sheet and the profit logs (little I have had, making an effort now) do show good stuff.

Hope this helps.

Thanks felt. Makes sense. So you do have to keep laying your acca even after the first leg loses – until you have two losses. In that case my numbers are close enough – probably just need to account for commission on the free bet value.

mwilks. I have done the paddy power shops before, you have to take the matches on the coupon which can be limitting but at the same time they have all the popular matches like Bayern, Barca, Celtic, Chelsea, Man City, PSG etc who are usually good odds. The odds are printed in fractions but you can just convert to decimal (15/8 in fraction convert to 15/8+1 = 2.875). The free bets work by handing in your losing acca bet slip and they hand you back a coupon. You can use the free bet in any paddy power but i think its best to use it in the shop you won it as it might be suspicious if you start spreading it around.

On a sequential lay, anyway of reducing loss if odds of each leg moves against you?.

Yeah I do all that FOG – still get my FB’s wiped out, especially when I win!. I usually get bookie odds just over 3, yet a small movement in lay odds against me can significantly increase my QL.
Think you are right about punting. Looking back I’d be quids in rather than laying

Correct match betting principals is definitely LAY. I don’t want to be responsible for anyone losing 100’s on unlayed acca’s. Favourites lose every day.

Two weeks ago I had an odds on favourite 3-0 at HT up and still 3-1 up with 10 mins to go. They went on to draw. They were 1.25 prematch. Ten mins to go you could have got 100/1 for the draw.

Jeepers FOG did you just write this out yourself?.
How long did it take?. I assume you’ve some maths qualification.

Right or wrong this is impressive – what’s your job?.