Formula to equalize acca profit
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Hi, I just recently got into matched betting. I’m laying off five and six fold accas in order to profit from the free bet refund when just one fails.
I have seen spreadsheets which calculate stakes such that you make a decent profit should you earn the free bet but a small loss in all other eventualities. I would really like to see a spreadsheet or better still know the formulas for equalizing the profit no matter the outcome.
I do have access to such a tool in a web based software, however I would really like to incorporate it into a vb program I have written to manage all of my matched betting including results etc. It would also allow me to quickly calculate lay stakes for a leg that I might have in as many as ten or more accas at once without having to go and do them all individually.
I’m pretty good at maths but I can’t fathom the formulas needed! Anybody have any ideas??
Many thanks
Rick
+0December 14, 2016 at 12:00 pm
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Thanks sleepless. Yes I have a bit of a maths background. It might be right or wrong but I have it in a spreadsheet and have sanity checked it with some examples and the stakes/profits seem to add up.
Did take some effort figuring it out. Took a couple of evenings messing around with a spreadsheet…
I may tidy up the spreadsheet and share it too. But at the mo it’s just got calcs all over and not very friendly.
+0Hi,
My strategy in the scenario you outlined would be to underlay the first leg significantly whilst weighing the potential loss from the first leg losing against the probability of the next 4 legs winning (based on the exchange odds). So a roughly 40% chance of the next 4 legs winning (0.8^4) equating to decimal odds of 2.5 or so. So if the loss from the first leg was to be £5 from a £50 stake I would accept that as value as the return from punting £5 on a 2.5 shot would be c. £7.50 as opposed to a £50 free bet should the acca win the remaining legs. I find the odds on selections that have a high probability of winning are generally undervalued at the bookies especially days and days out therefore you would want the second leg onwards to be as low as possible when bet is laid. Also, from bitter experience it hurts if the first leg wins and the last (odds on!) leg loses and you forget to lay it. 🙁
+0Hi FoG
That’s a fantastic piece of work and your efforts are much appreciated!
The online calc gives the first stake as £41.70 rather than the £41.19 you suggest – however that is assuming the online calc is perfect but if the values you are getting seem to produce the desired equal profit it may be that yours is perfect and the online calc is slightly out!
Unfortunately I have a ton of stuff to do today but I will study your maths as soon as I get the chance!
Does your formula take account of the amount staked on previous legs? I mean, for legs 2-5 we have to take account of what was staked on leg 1 etc – and as the lay prices inevitably change then so will these figures – indeed, one bet might even potentially be missed if we can’t get to the computer, so if that wins then we’ll have to enter a zero for the stake and that will also affect future stakes.
Many thanks again for your efforts!
Rick
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No problem Rick.
The 41.19 matches with the figure that felttip said oddsmonkey online tool is calculating.
The formula is what it is – maybe it is the unreliable inane ramblings of an online stranger or maybe it works. Test it yourself and adopt it for your use if you want (we’ll talk about the fee later).
But if it is not matching with your online calculator then maybe I am missing something subtle. I won’t stand by my calculations if you come back next week fuming at me that you’ve just lost £1000 because of my formula!!
It should be adoptable for all the other legs and to account for changing stakes, odds etc but will leave that up to you. 🙂
Anyway, you can send the cheque for £250 after your next big win, and to think felttip was going to charge you £500! Thats half price!
+0Cheap at half the price lol!
Don’t worry I will not use anything until I have checked it out thoroughly first. I think it might be that yours is right and the other tool is out a little, like I said I will have a good look later.
Whether right or wrong, thanks again for your efforts!
Rick
+0Hi guys,
new to the forum and have been following this thread with interest.
ive been doing some accas recently and wanted to start doing them in the shops, but the in-shop odds seem much worse than online. Is this usual, or am i missing something? – never even been in a bookies before this week!
the only thing i can think is that the coupons are outdated because of price movements, but even the touch screen thing had worse odds than online?
+0Wow FOG!
It seems your maths is perfect and the online tool I was using is actually slightly flawed!
There is one slight error in your layout – where you write LS = (P – FB) / (1-c), the P should actually be AV as it’s the Accumulator Value we want to subtract the Free Bet Value from, not the Profit. Once I sussed that bit out, the figures all seem to fall into place nicely!
I’ve laid it out on a spreadsheet to check it all – like yours it’s certainly not pretty but it does show me the maths in stages. Annoyingly I have a lot to do the next few days as I am now very keen to turn this into a full-on vb.net function – I already have the formulas for the other three situations (what do do after a loss, what to do if a postponement or abandonment means the acca can no longer earn a free bet, and how to lay off a free bet if it has to be an acca.)
Thanks again for your help!
Rick
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kitkat – the thing with the coupons that I found was yes sometimes the odds are a bit out of date. So what I would do is if the odds were too low then get them to check and they would correct them on my slip, if the odds were too high then I would stay quiet and accept the small arb sometimes.
Rick1 – glad the formula worked. I had been meaning to figure it all out for a while because like I said if I am going shop to shop I can’t throw 500 out there and just leave it to variance, I need a sound laying method. I’m kind of at the end of what I can do as I am sooo gubbed that I think the only outlet for me now is the shops.
+0Hi FOG
Might sound like a silly question but how can I send you a PM? I can’t seem to find any obvious way on this site or in your profile!
Rick1
+0Thanks for the reply FoG,
didnt realise this was something they might do!
liverpool were 1.95 on the web monday lunchtime, the shop was offering 1.83! looking back i wonder if the odds on the draw or everton would have given me a small arb?
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Rick. There is no PM thing on this forum. I am probably not that hard to find other ways anyway.
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