Gubbing

For bookies, the expected value (long term mean return) should be positive, ie they make profit in the long run. Whenever you take part in these promotions, if you look on say any of matt’s blogs posts, we are taking positive expected value on these events. In a sense we are gambling, but when we are doing these promotions we are taking effective odds higher than the actual odds of the event occuring. So in a sense, we are taking the value away from the bookmaker and long term we will be in profit with them, not the other way around. The only way a bookmaker is going to make profit is if they undercut the market and offer odds less than the expected probability of it occuring. They offer a high overround on say the 1×2 market so that whatever event happens, they will try and balance the book so that they are in a profit regardless.

So it doesnt matter if you are taking higher odds and its less likely to happen, most of the time when we use these free bets, we are betting on high odds events that are say 1 point apart on the exchange, so the true probability of them occuring is close to what we are taking at the bookie. Basically in a sense, we are taking value with each bet we are doing that is long term going to make us an unprofitable customer for them.

Hopefully that makes sense and isnt too long winded. Someone correct me if im wrong but thats how I understand it.

If you want some solid proof, start recording your 30 day profit/loss record on Smarkets.

I think Matt’s log is party theoretical. There is no way he could keep doing every offer the bookies put out at maximum stakes and maintain all the accounts; unless he’s mugging like a bastard – but the log doesn’t give any details of mug bets.