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Help with calc most profit on combo bet

  • Hi guys,

    I’m new here and I’ve some trouble on how to calculate the most profit on a combo bet I need to make.

    This is the info from the bonus offer:
    Combo Bets with minimum odds of 2.25. Combos must have a minimum of 2 selections, with minimum odds of 1.50 for each selection.

    So on what type of bets should I bet? Close numbers like 1.6 to back or should I opt for a draw in the bet so I have more chance to lose the combo and extract more from the free bet?

    If I calc some If I place the 30€ free bet on a combo on 2 games which 1 is played today and 1 tomorrow. Match 1 is 1.58 and match 2 is 1.83 to back so I’m getting a combo odds for 2.91 on the website.

    Match 1 I can lay for 1.7 atm so how can I calc now what’s my best option?

    I calc that if I lay match one at 18.5€ @1.7 my liability will be 12.95€. And If I lay the 2nd match for 29€ @ 1.95 odds then no mather what happens with both games I’ll have 16 to 17€ of guaranteed profit.

    Is that good or can I have some more profit extracted from the free combo bet?
    And can someone help me please and explain it to me with an example please on what’s the best way to calculate the lay bets? For how much should I lay the 1st game and if it wins, then how to calculate my bet for the 2nd game.

    Thanks in advance guys!

    +0
    Silverspeed
    1
    July 28, 2017 at 5:44 pm

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    Ox 0 July 31, 2017 at 11:44 am

    Your calculations seem correct to me.

    In general if you are laying off a double placed with a free bet, the lay stake for your first leg is:

    c * ls2/(lx1 – r)

    And the lay stake for the second leg is:

    bs*(bx-1)/(lx2 – r)

    Where:
    ‘r’ is your commission rate (eg .02 if using smarkets, or .05 on betfair)
    ‘c’ is 1-r (eg .98 if using smarkets, or .95 if using betfair)
    ‘lx1’ is the lay odds for the first leg
    ‘ls2’ is the lay stake for the second leg.
    ‘bs’ is the back stake (30 euro in your example)
    ‘bx’ is the combined back odds (2.8914 in your example, not sure where your got 2.91 from)
    ‘lx2’ is the lay odds for the second leg.

    Hope this is clear, let me know if it isn’t.

    +0
    Ox 0 July 31, 2017 at 11:56 am

    Forgot to add that, as with all free bets, betting on a double with higher combined odds will yield more profit than a double at lower combined odds.

    +0
    Silverspeed 1 July 31, 2017 at 4:57 pm

    Ox,

    Thank you very much man.

    Also with the example! I’ll recalculate it with yours and see where it differs from my random calculations :p

    I got the 2.91 from a bonus, the more bets in my combo the more % profit they add. Like 3 bets = 5%, 4 bets in the combo = 6% etc…

    Although reading through you post you say that the first lay stake =

    c * ls2/(lx1 – r)

    But you say I need to do c * ls2. But how do I know my ls2 when I need to first calculate my first lay stake? This part is not clear to me. Hope you can help me out with this one.

    With kind regards.

    +0
    Ox 0 July 31, 2017 at 5:53 pm

    You need to calculate the lay stake for the second leg first, and then based on that you can calculate the lay stake for the first leg. Of course, you don’t actually place the lay bet for the second leg until you need to (if at all).

    So with your numbers (and assuming 2% commission), you work out that your lay stake for the second leg should be:

    30*(1.91)/1.93 = 29.69

    And for the first leg:

    .98*29.69/1.68 = 17.32

    Now for all possible outcomes you would make 16.97 profit.

    +0
    Silverspeed 1 July 31, 2017 at 8:13 pm

    Hey Ox,

    Thanks again man, now it’s starting to get clear now.

    Although with the example where my lay odds of game 2 are 1.83 and with the 2% smarkets commission I don’t get how you get “/1.93” value as I do 1.83*0.02= 1.866 here so that’s 0.06 difference here. Did you made a quick calculation error here or am I doing something wrong?

    Also with the first lay stake you get “/1.68” but it’s 1.58 lay odds and 2% commission doesn’t comes out to 1.68 here but only 1.58+0.03=1.61 so again 0.07 difference.

    If I know this then all would be crystal clear I’d recon 🙂

    Greetings.

    +0
    Ox 0 July 31, 2017 at 9:32 pm

    Are you confusing back and lay odds here? Remember that lx1 and lx2 in the formulas i posted refer to the *lay* odds of leg1 and leg2, not the back odds.

    Just to be clear, in your original post your bets details were:
    Stake: 30 euro (as a free bet)
    Leg1: back @ 1.58, lay @ 1.7
    Leg2: back @ 1.83, lay @ 1.95
    And the combined odds of the double were boosted to 2.91

    If that’s correct, then the example calculations I posted are as they should be. For the second leg the lay stake is:

    30*(1.91)/1.93 = 29.69

    30 here is your back stake and 1.91 is your combined back odds minus 1. The 1.93 here is the lay odds of the second leg 1.95 – 0.02

    And for the first leg, the lay stake is:

    .98*29.69/1.68 = 17.32

    This is 98% of the lay stake from the second leg over 1.7 (the lay odds of the first leg) less 0.02.

    The back odds of the individual legs are irrelevant to the calculation, you only need to know the combined odds of the double (in order to calculate the second lay stake).

    +0
    Silverspeed 1 July 31, 2017 at 9:37 pm

    Ox,

    I misread and now thanks to your very detailed explanations with examples it’s clear to me how I need to calculate my future free bets :).

    Thank you very very very much man!!!

    +0
    Ox 0 August 1, 2017 at 4:47 pm

    Nice. The only other thing to mention is that the lay odds of the second leg may have changed by the time you come to lay the second leg. In that case you can recalculate the lay stake for the second leg using the same formula:

    bs*(bx-1)/(lx2 – r)

    in order to ensure an equal profit regardless of the outcome of the second leg.

    +0
    Silverspeed 1 August 1, 2017 at 5:23 pm

    So it’s just lx2 that might go up or down by the time the game get’s underway and by dividing into the new odds before playing the lay bet then the profit is all evenly matched again on all outcomes.

    Just for my interest if I place a 3 combo bet then I need to calculate the 3rd lay stake, then the 2nd lay stake, and then the first lay stake with the formula’s you’d given here and go on from there on again match after match until the combo is lost or won.

    +0
    Ox 0 August 1, 2017 at 9:36 pm

    >>
    So it’s just lx2 that might go up or down by the time the game get’s underway and by dividing into the new odds before playing the lay bet then the profit is all evenly matched again on all outcomes.
    >>
    Exactly.

    For three or more legs the formulas extend in the obvious way. For three legs:
    ls1 = c*ls2/(lx1 – r)
    ls2 = c*ls3/(lx2 – r)
    ls3 = bs*(bx-1)/(lx3 – r)

    i.e you work out your lay stake for the last leg and then work backwards from there. If you have to lay any legs after the first you may need to recalculate the next lay stake to take account of lay odds having changed.

    +0
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