How about trading like this
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Friends at work do the following…
Research a horse that will have a good chance(chris you should be good at this) then at betfair.
Back £10, 5 mins before race at lets say 5.0
then lay – doubleyour back stake (£20) at half so 2.5 but click keep so at in play will match it if horse is doing well.
they currently hit maybe 8 out of 10,and half of these don’t win just have to race near the front to get a match.
worse case you lose £10 but at current stakes mentioned above make £10 a race.
You could try yourselves with a £5 back stake and see how you go?
If all us horse racing tipsters join forces we may have an excellent strike rate.
+0May 1, 2016 at 5:07 pm
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Thanks mark. Didn’t know betfair had downloadable data….
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@Tony: Not sure what you’re asking, but yes I have downloaded data before. I haven’t looked into Kjillman’s strategy, though.
@Dave_Jones: Yeah, I completely agree with you. There are potentially inefficiencies within betting markets that can be exploited… But it’s certainly not easy to find them!@FoG: The data from Betfair is in its raw form. One of the downsides is that there aren’t timestamps for bets (this would make the data files too large) – only prices and volume etc.
+0Just been trying to put some form of spreadsheet together for this. Using the Bet365 4/1 offer you could overlay to make a few extra pennies. Eg:
Back at 6.0 stake of £50 to return £300
Lay at 3.0 stake of £115, as oppose to £100, for a profit of £109.25 after 5% commission.If you horse wins you make a profit of £20, plus £40 extracted from £50 risk free bet, so £60 in total.
If horse doesn’t win you make profit of £59.25.And here is the risky bit, if the in play lay isn’t matched you lose £50.
Something definately worth looking at. I won’t whack £50 on this straight away but try £5 here and there.
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Oh, one last point relating to the initial strategy: It’s not simply evens as the_don says. Basically, the probability that a horse which started at odds of 5 goes to 2.5 in-play isn’t 50%… That would be a naive claim. If the probability of an event occurring was initially 20%, it may go on to occur but never actually be a 40% chance of occurring (i.e. it’s not necessarily a linear distribution of sorts). Hopefully that’s fairly trivial.
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https://www.fracsoft.com/ also have betfair data but looks out of date ….
Betfair you need 100 points to download their data. What is 100 points?
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I’ve attempted this a couple of times when I’ve failed to get a match due to a drifting price.
The first time it worked like a charm. I gave myself a pat on the back and thought I was invincible. However, the second time I tried I backed a horse at 4/1 and fully expected to get a good match in-play until I saw it got off to an awful start and slowly drifted away into the sunset, taking with it my ego and £25.
It’s gambling and it makes me uncomfortable.
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I think you missed the point of the initial post, John. Of course if you are randomly selecting horses (in your case not actually random as you say the horse drifted prior to the race, which could in itself be a signal), then you will lose in the long-run – this is gambling. The strategy would be dependent on selecting horses based on specific attributes, such as the horse having a tendency to be a front-runner. I personally think the strategy is a loser in the long-run, regardless, but you can’t dismiss it based on a random sample that totals 2 observations.
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Just thought I would give my 2 cents. I had a brief dabble in trading prices but realised I was out of my depth a little. Another common method used is on the shorter races, let’s say 7furlongs. Lay every horse at odds 2.00. These races are usually quite tight. If 2 horses bets match then you break even (less commission) if 3 or more horses match then your in profit
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regarding my original post, people at work follow a paid service where a guy tips them 4 to 5 races a day where the horse will come in. it’s a paid service £20 a month. the tipping service has done all the work/research and they’ve been very profitable so a far. You pay £15 for odds monkey so £20 a month for this seems pretty good.
I’ll update you all over the next week or so but currently they are up about £170 since last Monday
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Clearly from what I read you bet £10 lay £20 so your either £10 up or £10 down? So obviously you need more than 50% to come in to make money, I assume you can clearly up the stakes a lot higher to make more money? Obviously the risk increases though.
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Yes. The profit in this is going to come from the quality of the tips.
I have downloaded some of the data as Mark suggested. My horse selection criteria was just pick the favourite each time.
My strategy was as suggested bet 10 on sp and lay 20 when the in play odds halved I didn’t pick any favourites less than evens because then you would never get to lay them (lay odds cant drop less than 1).
I saw from 2405 favourites for 1079 horses their min in play odds were at least half of their betfair sp odds – so you win 10 the rest would have just lost you 10. So that would have been a good way to lose £2470, but there is probably commission charges in there too?
+0I tried this today on 5 races. Didn’t get a match on one but only by a whisker. Got matched on the other 4 who all went on to lose, so will try this again. I used the pace figures on Patternform using the last 3 races only and found the likely front runner.
+0I always think about tipping services this way:-
If I came up with a system that proved to be very profitable then I would use it myself to clean up the last thing I would do is offer it to other people for a small fee. If I found it difficult to get bets on due to bookies banning me (not the case in this example as exchanges are being used) then I would use friends and family to place the bets.
Perhaps I am just being sceptical but I always imagine tipping services are at best only slightly plus EV.
+0Dave Jones – you are spot on.
But the number of clowns who constantly pay silly money for these services astounds me. If a tipster is so good why advertise this – why not clean up first??
Bulk of them are straightforward scams I’m afraid.+0A promising start Dave143 is it possible to back test your ideas, making money four out of five times is great, but such a small sample size is meaningless. If you had lost on four and won just once it wouldn’t really mean anything either.
I think if the data is easily available then there might be some merit in this method but as Mark pointed out you really need to test over a large sample before you can have any confidence that you have a profitable system.
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