How about trading like this
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Friends at work do the following…
Research a horse that will have a good chance(chris you should be good at this) then at betfair.
Back £10, 5 mins before race at lets say 5.0
then lay – doubleyour back stake (£20) at half so 2.5 but click keep so at in play will match it if horse is doing well.
they currently hit maybe 8 out of 10,and half of these don’t win just have to race near the front to get a match.
worse case you lose £10 but at current stakes mentioned above make £10 a race.
You could try yourselves with a £5 back stake and see how you go?
If all us horse racing tipsters join forces we may have an excellent strike rate.
+0May 1, 2016 at 5:07 pm
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Very true Dave its a small sample to draw conclusions from. Theres loads of other things to take into account when doing this, the effect of the draw, track configuration etc. Its something l take into account in my own betting so maybe l had a bit of pre trainning in this anyway even though lve never sought to try this before.
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I did a bit more digging. Some horses come out of this quite well.
For example Captain Dunne has only won 9 of 75 races that I have, but 49 of the 75 his minimum in play odds were less than half of the betfair starting price. So you would have matched your dob lay and won a tenner.
This is just fitting a strategy to the data though, you would need to be more thorough and train the model with a subset of the data to form a strategy and test the strategy on the remainder of the data.
Here is a bunch of other horses that you would have won money on them dobbing over their career and are still racing today (raced since start of April 2016).
Don’t know much about horses to understand if these guys are front runners, or stayers or whatever reason they should have done quite well dobbing on them.
1 Captain Dunne
2 Ocean Legend
3 Lord Ben
4 Noble Storm
5 Solar Spirit
6 Twirling Magnet
7 Lancelot Du Lac
8 Links Drive Lady
9 Best Trip
10 West Ship Master
11 Phare Isle+0
And a list of horses where they have raced at least 5 times and their min in play price has ALWAYS been less than half their betfair starting price. So in the past these have always won you your tenner.
I am missing some races though, only took the Ireland and UK races and some old races seem to be missing data.
Ballyboker Bridge
La Vaticane
Ballyandy
Bondi Beach
Cherry Kool
Triggywinkle
North Hill Harvey
Lady Macapa
Illuminate
Mix And Mingle
Eleuthera
Simonsig
Le Prezien+0
@kiljmann what service are they using? Do you have a link?
@our members dissing tipster services, yes you’re right that there are some absolute scammers out there. But do you really think if a tipster was good that they wouldn’t try to generate an extra income stream by selling their advice? Why wouldn’t they? They’re in the money game after all.
Depending on the sport they might not be able to get their own bets on like before (if it’s horse racing or women’s Isreali Divison 2 games). So they tip to make up the difference.
In the past I followed some great tipsters who earned me great money and by studying why they chose the wagers that they tipped I figured a lot out for myself and about how things really work.Of course they’d sell their services. Who doesn’t want more money.
+0Just a thought. Do the markets move much when a tip comes out? I mean if a respected tipster gives a prediction for a winning horse, aren’t the odds on that horse going to shoot up? Could be potential for some real market manipulation there.
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remember unlike other so called tipping services they are only tipping the inplay to go down by half. Example yesterday they had a horse at 20 and another at 22 in the same race both came in at 10 and 11 in play. These horses tailed off in the end but still got matched.
I can go back and check which horses actually went on to win the races when they matched,def under 40 %
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What were the tips yesterday that came in?
Is it this guy? https://www.dobbinday.com/dobs/?
You have to be careful, if you have enough data you can see whatever patterns that you want.
For example if I sit here tossing a coin ten times, if you have enough tippers then one tipper is going to predict everyone toss. Doesn’t mean he is good, just lucky.
If I see a thousand horses and one of the horses in play drops to half his sp 10 times in a row that doesn’t mean that he is particularly more likely to be a successfull dob, it just means that I sampled enough horses that one of them was bound to have 10 dob successes in a row…
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no facebook trading group, sign up they do horse racing,football,rugby.
+0I e-mailed them and got the following response:
“Thanks for getting in contact with us, the unmatched bet will remain active until the market halts before going into in-play. If the bet is unmatched when this takes place, it will be cancelled and the stake returned back to the account balance.
Unmatched lay bets will remain in the In-Play market until the end of the race. If the bet is not matched by the end of the race the bets will be cancelled as the market halts. “
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Kiljamn what’s the facebook group link?
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Of course an interesting topic in itself, but the publicity of a tipster depends on their tipping ability/strategy. For example, there are plenty of profitable tipsters who find value in early market odds. They are unable to take advantage of this themselves as they are quickly restricted by bookmakers and therefore choose to sell the service (sufficient liquidity is lacking on exchanges at this time). Conversely, a strategy such as the one discussed in this thread is not reliant on extracting value from early market odds. I’d be surprised if any were profitable in the long-run. If you have a strategy which genuinely beats SP (whether trading out in-play or not), you have no reason to sell the service… You can make more than you will ever need with correct bankroll management. I’d be sceptical of any tipsters (especially groups on facebook) that claim to have a strategy which beats SP – there’s thousands of these created every week and FoG has explained the rest: variance will allow many to be profitable in the short-run.
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You seem to be getting a bit wound up Mark.
Could it be that you are jealous of other people getting their ‘d|ck in the dob’ ?
😉
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