How successful are you with the acca promos
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I’ve been looking to diversify with my match betting, and the acca promos having been catching my eye. You know the ones, “free bet if one leg loses” etc.
I’m looking to find games with big favourites, (making sure I hit the minimum cumulative odds) , not bothering to lay off. And rely on the acca wins and free bets to make a profit
Is anyone doing this sort of strategy or are you all laying your acca bets
+0November 13, 2016 at 4:45 pm
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I pretty much lay. If ur looking at min odds of 1.2 or selective coupons (where they miss out the dead certs) then 1 of the 5/6 can quite often let you down.
I’ve got 1 I’m letting run at the moment on the internationals where I managed to get a load of (hopefully) dead certs, then plan to lay some of the 6th leg in the week+0
Hi BillHill. I am trying your strategy. I don’t advise doing what I do.
Just lay everything. When you have some profit from the week through laying then yep feel free to take £25 or £50 out of that and have a punt on an acca. Maybe build up a punt fund from there……
I find you either win big or lose big every weekend because if you are doing a number of accas then you likely have the same team in a few accas and if they lose it takes down half your chances. If you have a bad run failing to win anything significant for a few weeks running it will stress you out.
My history is something like this for the last month-ish:
So this weekend probably +£220 so far.
Last weekend probably +£228 profit.
Previous to that midweek -£207 loss (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juve and a few more odds on favs failed to win)
Previous to that weekend +£120 profit
Previous to that midweek -£100 loss
Before that weekend -£140 loss
Before that midweek -£10 loss.So I was down £250 after first three weeks and then pull some back to £130 down and then lost big again to -£337 …. And now finally up a £100+ or so. I reckon though I have been quite unlucky in that I had a streak of 15 accas all lose in a row at one site, all with cumulative odds of about 2/1 to 3/1. But then I have had some good luck on other sites … so hard to know. In theory there should be a 10% to 20% return on investment long term. I have been investing £300 to £400 per weekend so in theory should be £30+ profit per week so should be averaged out to £210+ profit by now, but am a little bit behind that unless I get some more wins this weekend. Also gubbed from some sites so restricted in that way too. I’ve done okay in the end but was ropey for a few weeks. Not a roaring successful strategy though.
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I do a similar thing bill, I usually wack £50 on a 6 fold acca. I try to pick the games so the the first 3-4 games are very strong odds 1.01-1.25. Depending on the odds/profit available I start laying round the 4th game to guarantee a profit of about£20. Most times I forget about the acca and end up doubling my money on the bet. Only really use will Hill atm for accas as I have so much going on day to day it does get hard to keep track of
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I’m trying a mixture of both at the moment. I’ve always laid, but have been giving the not laying a try for the last couple of weeks.
My acca’s where I haven’t laid have gone OK so far, but the sample size is far too small to get any meaningful results from.
But, where I don’t lay, I then don’t have to set up the acca to have games that don’t overlap, and I can fire off a lot more bets.
Also, just a question to anyone who does the Ladbrokes insurance offer in store:
I saw it mentioned on a poster that the acca insurance applies to bets placed on their terminals as well as the printed coupon, but was unable to find the 5 team acca insurance coupon on the terminal. Is it just a case of selecting five matches on the terminal, and then doing them as an acca? (Subject to the matches being in certain leagues, as per their website coupons).
If so, that would open up a lot more opportunities as they can be a bit selective about which matches they put on the coupons.
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Having had a dig around on the Ladbrokes website, it looks like I’ve found the answer but it also raises another question.
The following extracts from the T’s & C’s state:
2. Maximum free bet refund of £/€25 per customer per day. If multiple qualifying bets are settled on the same day, only the earliest bet placed will be refunded.
5. For shop customers betting over the counter, the offer applies to all matches listed on the 5 Team Acca Insurance coupon only.
6. For shop customers betting on BetStation, the offer applies to all football competitions but there are minimum odds per selection of 1/5.
So coupon only over the counter, and minimum odds of 1.2 on the terminal. Simple enough.
But, I’ve never used a terminal before, so really don’t know the answer to this: If I do a bet on the terminal and get 4 out of 5, do I get my free bet from the terminal by scanning my receipt or something, or do I still have to see the staff behind the counter? In other words, can I circumnavigate clause 2 by claiming a free bet from the staff after doing a coupon, and then getting one (or more) anonymously from the terminal, all on the same day?
Thanks.
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You can do them on the terminals too yes
+0I was told by a employee it applies only on the coupon at laddies, but that was over a month ago.’ll ask a different person later.Great if you can.My area is mostly laddies.
Was chatting to a employee at Jennings. You can do £25 from the terminals,but only on selected games ie no international games.FB has to be over evens.I know theres not many of these smaller bookmakers but is positive they trying to keep up with the big boys
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In Ireland you can 100% do them on terminals in Laddies. Maybe UK is different.
+0I have always been of the opinion that the acca insurance is not the greatest of offers, when you take into account all the laying that needs to be done
For example I like horse racing offers on Saturday because it is solely focused from like 1.30pm to 4pm, so you can plan life around it etc (cue the matched betting is my life posts lol)
It probably does not help the matter that my windows phone is not the greatest for apps and mobile sites, so if I am out on a Sunday then it is easier to just punt any free bets I have available, for example like the Ladbrokes £20 get £10 free bet (never mind this is an in play offer…)
Therefore the not laying appeals to me, naturally only placing bets on genuine short prices, so that the 2% Smarkets is saved, not laying for example the Bet365 horse racing offers would be too crazy, the variance would be huge, but also the value on them offers comes from backing horses with tight odds, if I did do the not laying method, then backing something at say 6.0 with Bet365 when it is 9.0 on Smarkets is a disaster, most 1.2 football prices are going to be more or less 1.2
So, I have decided to do a basic example to work out how worth it the acca insurance might be, taking the long term view (on average etc), here it is:
6 matches all with odds of 1.2, that means it is basically 6/4 to hit 5 and 2/1 to hit all 6, so lets take a sample size of 30 (because the numbers make it simple)
Of the 30 attempts, 10 would win (hit all 6), 20 would lose, of the loses 12 would hit 5
So at £25 a pop:
10 wins of 2/1 x £25 = +£500
8 loses of £25 = -£200
12 loses of £25 = -£300From the losses 12 free bets of £25 each, say 80% extracted so £240 profit
30 bets at £25 each = £750 total stake, £240 profit gives on average 32% profit on every £1 staked
The on average profit of every £25 acca is £8
Just for comparison compare this to a 5 leg acca
Again price of 1.2 then 6/4 to hit all 5 and 11/10 to hit 4, use 210 attempts so 84 would win (hit all 5), 126 would lose with 100 of them being 4 out of 5
So at £25 a pop,
84 wins of 6/4 x £25 = +£3,150
26 loses of £25 = -£650
100 loses of £25 = -£2,500From the losses 100 free bets of £25 each, say 80% extracted so £2,000 profit
210 bets at £25 each = £5,250 total stake, £2,000 profit gives on average 38% profit on every £1 staked
The on average profit of every £25 acca is £9.50
Now I would expect that if you changed the prices and did all 1.3 shots, the return would still be same as it is all relative, only the variance would change
Conclusion – (IF MY WORKINGS ARE CORRECT and they are probably best case scenario too when taking into account overround and things like that), £100 of accas a week to make time worthwhile in my opinion
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Marv, good post but a couple of points.
1. You accept that the overround wasn’t taken into consideration. You can’t discount this especially with acca since the overround increases on each leg like compound interest. I find at 1.2 you should be finding a lay at about 1.25. You have estimated the chance of winning the the 5-fold at 6/4 which is 1.2*1.2*1.2*1.2*.12 which is right if you ignore the overround and assume bookie odds is accurate. But if you use truer odds 1.25*1.25*1.25*1.25*1.25 then you get 2/1 or 33% chance instead of 40% chance. A bit of a drop.
So with 33% chance instead of having 84 winning acca’s you only have 68 and your
84 wins of 6/4 x £25 = +£3,150
now becomes
68 wins of 6/4 x £25 = +£2,550So that’s £600 difference in profit on the winners by ignoring the overround. Bookies love acca’s because the overround end ups being HUGE when you multiply multiple legs together. That is why they are always trying to push them and why almost every bookie has offers on acca’s.
2. You make quite a leap going from 1.2 per leg = 11/10 to hit 4. 11/10 assumes about 48% chance of hitting four and getting a refund. In your example the chance of a refund would be more like 40%. Yes it is 11/10 to hit four legs, but after hitting four legs the fifth leg is more than likely still going to win so hitting 4 legs at 11/10 doesn’t necessarily mean hitting a refund. You have to basically work it out P[WIN1st leg]*P[WIN 2nd leg] * P[WIN 3rd leg] * P[WIN 4th leg] * P[LOSE 5th leg] and repeat for each leg losing and sum up all probabilities. I get 40% instead of 48%. This will mean that you will hit less refunds than you have estimated … So now
“From the losses 100 free bets of £25 each, say 80% extracted so £2,000 profit”
Becomes
“From the losses 84 free bets of £25 each, say 80% extracted so £1,680 profit”
because you won’t be getting the refund as often as you have estimated. That is another £320 chunk eaten out of your estimated profit.And you will have more just straight losses of -£25 than you have estimated.
3. The value in this kind of offer is hitting the refund. Your sums clearly show that you are breaking even on the real bets (because you ignored the overround, but that’s fine as a very rough estimate) and ALL the profit is coming from the free bets. So when you say “Now I would expect that if you changed the prices and did all 1.3 shots, the return would still be same as it is all relative, only the variance would change” you are wrong. If you increase the odds the chance of hitting two losses increases and the value of the offer decrease as you are steadily becoming less and less likely to hit a free bet. The KEY to this offer is maximising the chance of one leg losing.
You have overestimated the value of this offer by at least double in my opinion.
If you find 5 legs at 1.2 then for every £100 bet the real return on investment is more like £14.31 by my calculations (accounting for overround, accounting for accurate probability of Only One Leg Losing). Dropping to about £12 back on £100 if you are looking at odds about 1.3 and dropping to £5 back on £100 if you are backing each leg at 1.5. So you can see the KEY is to finding really short odds – not just because they are generally tighter, but because it maximises your chance of hitting at least 4 legs.
The ideal scenario is if you get 4 legs like 1.05/1.09 and last leg at 5/5.2. This really maximises your chance at hitting the free bet. I reckon that would be worth £30 back on £100 invested. BUT with the high odds leg adding huge variance.
Hope this helps.
+0Fog, thanks for the post
Yes my examples were deliberately very basic to try and proof some point but indeed not initially that practical
My thinking is using my examples to then apply a 50% discount factor, to take into account things such as the overround and that
Therefore giving a rough return of what say 15-20% on the original stake
+0I don’t fully understand why people say hitting the freebet is the key, the freebet gives the value but not sure you need to hit it. If you clear 4 low ql legs then you can use the last leg to maximise return either way. Freebet is preferable as it doesn’t empty the exchange, but you should be able to guarantee a reasonable return whatever the result
+0Interesting to see how many different ways there are to attack these acca offers. I’ve been doing the Paddy Power in-shop coupon for a couple of months now, and the way that works best for me is as follows:
1) Pick a first match where the win/draw/win have relatively similar odds, such as 2.5/3.2/2.5. It doesn’t matter how close the back/lay odds are.
2) Choose 4 other matches with very short odds that can be laid sequentially. On the coupon, there is no minimum, so the shorter the better. Try to pick ones with similar back/lay odds.
3) Place three £50 accas in three different shops, each acca covering one of the the outcomes of the first match, with the other four selections identical.
4) Don’t lay the first match. We already know one of the accas will win its first leg and the other two will lose.
5) Lay about £145 on the second match. This way, if the second leg is a loser, you are down £5.
6) Continuing laying £145 plus whatever you have already lost at the exchange from previous legs on the acca until either the acca loses or you get to the final leg. If you get to the final leg, adjust your lay so that if it wins, you get a small amount in profit from the acca plus two £50 free bets, and if it loses you get a bigger amount in profit from the acca plus one £50 free bet.I’ve done this about 7 or 8 times now. Twice I’ve got to the end of the acca with 2x£50 free bets, and the other times I’ve come out with one. I know that sometimes I’ll come out with nothing, but I’ll only be down about £5, so no biggie.
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betman, its not really that hitting the free bet is key. Picking acca’s that maximise the chance of hitting the free bet though is key in my opinion.
Think about it – if you got a five fold of 1.01, 1.01, 1.01, 1.01, 10.0 – then its basically a risk free bet on the long shot and in theory then 80% return on investment. Whether it wins or not doesn’t matter if you are laying, but you have picked an acca which maximises the chance of winning a free bet – i.e. one which is almost certainly going to lose by one leg…
Same with not laying. If you don’t lay you are hoping to break as close to even as possible on the real money bets. Then it will be all about how many free bets that you hit that will determine your profit. So again you want to pick acca’s that maximise the chance of a free bet but you won’t be hoping to hit the free bet, you will obviously be hoping to win every acca since you’re not laying….
That’s how I see it.
I like Neilogisms strategy exactly because of that, you have one longer leg thrown in with 4 bankers. And you have variance controlled because you have all outcomes on the hard to call leg covered. But yeah, you can’t use that online (unless across different bookies) because it will stand out straight away that you are guaranteeing profit and abusing the promotion.
+0I personally would not do the option with a big fifth leg if was not laying, just huge variance, plus the overround advantage for the bookies might be even greater at big odds anyway, tighter matches less overround
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