Life e/w arbing after restrictions
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There have been a lot of you saying lately that you’re losing accounts fast and trying to make the same money because of restrictions on accounts. A sense of doom and gloom almost. A lot of you e/w arbed after you lost the offers on guubbed accounts, but then these account became stake restricted. But you can still continue on these accounts and make on average 500 profit a month from 1quid each way bets.
Some of you might have already heard of Mike Cruickshank, he was a pioneer in Matched Betting, he had acca and e/w arbing software out years ago and was always ahead of the curve. Anyway his Each Way Sniper software has a 2 week £1 trial which features his”value” system. This is a nutshell is a set of parameters for doing e/w way arbs where you don’t lay the bets on the exchanges.
It utilises your restricted accounts (can use fresh accounts if you want too, they’re last much longer as you’re only placing 1 quid e/w bets. Can obviously do higher stakes if you wish or want).
This isn’t risk free, but if you’ve come to the point of restricted accounts in your matched betting career then you surely understand value and edge at this point. The math will work long term, as long as you follow the plan and use good bankroll management you’ll make a nice sum every month. Think about all that money given to the exchanges in commission. It’s all cut out, no more giving value back over the exchange.I do a bit of e/w arbing with higher stakes and I’ve staked to stop laying off some of the place parts as it seems like madness in some races, like the 8:20pm at Bellewstown last night. I won’t post the link because I’m not sure if it’s allowed but it’s called ‘Each way Sniper’ by Mike Cruickshank, just google it and there’s a £1 trial (make sure you cancel your reoccuring payment on paypal), and it might give a lot of you life back into some dormant or useless accounts and boost your profits again.
Just take 200 quid that you made from Matched Betting to try it with. I don’t do it myself because I’m still plugging on otherwise but it is pinned to the board as a Plan C for later down the line. I think once you see his method too, maybe it could be done using OM’s each way matcher which a lot of you will already have.+0July 9, 2017 at 10:24 am
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Yes Deej. That’s exactly it. It’s slow going.
Best is bet365 on the big weekends and big festivals where they go price promise AND enhanced ew terms. And you tend to be able to get bigger stakes on. Plus they do bog even if gubbed so can get another little advantage there.
Also good are extra place race and extra place offers like golf.
+0Thank for that Fog. Do you strictly go for value bets or sometimes just put whatever you fancy on? I understand value bets over time should pay off but there is still no guarantees surely? And do you cover numerous horse per race?
Sorry for all the questions. I am demo-ing this at the moment with fake bets to see how I get on and you’re right it is slow. Do you have much flucuations in your profits and losses?
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Just value bets. I stay away from stuff that I “fancy”. It’s a purely objective process.
There is some wriggle room though. If there is no liquidity on the place on the exchange as often it doesn’t come in until just before the race then I do a fair estimate of the true odds based on the mid point of the back and lay odds, or the lay odds divided by the over round to remove….
It’s handy as you just back the horse, no hanging around watching the place part to drop.
Variance is big. I do the US Racing on sky too (max stakes on the win if there is an arb against the exchange) and my profit loss for the last five days looks something like: £20 loss, £100 profit, £50 profit, break even, £10 loss…. so a 20 loss at small stakes of about £3 per horse, imagine if I had been punting £30’s then that would have been a big loss of £200 in one day on value!!
And yes back lots of horses in the same race if I can.
Have you just lost sky and ladbrokes? Is that all. There is easier ways to make money. Different methods suits different ppl depending on the lifestyle and attitude. This suits me because I can get everything done in one go and after hours when I’m not working and kids in bed. I don’t think it’s a great earner. It’s my last resort to be honest – I’ve lost all my accounts worth speaking of.
My progression,
1. Basic bet x get x free, basic money back offers. Slowly got gubbed. Probably the easiest to do and less stressful. And lots of offers when you start so you can choose the ones that suit you.
2. Bet365 4/1+ offer. I seemed to get more juice out of this than the basic offers so carried me for a few months. It’s worth about £5 per race or 10 per weekday, more on weekend. £100 per week, £400+ per month.
3. Acca insurance with some bookies I hadn’t already burned in phase 1, got maybe 6 months out of that before I lost the accounts with the best offers. Again each acca is worth about £5-£10 so get 2 or 3 done each day to make £500 per month…
4. Had a look at ew arbing, but find it time consuming and maybe I don’t have enough active accounts left.
5. Max stakes value bets. I don’t really recommend it. It’s good fun. It’s a last resort. It’s just a way to stick it to the bookies after all is said and done. Just to prove that they haven’t beaten me yet. A personal crusade that is slightly profitable. If you’re getting good value then 10% long term return on investment is likely. So to make £500 per month you are looking to stake £100 to £200 per day. Say your restrictions are about 5 to 10 max stakes, that means finding 20 to 40 bets per day – less bets though if you’re finding better value than 10% and less again if you are allowed bigger stake and you probably will be allowed bigger close to the race and on shorter odds. My max stake on sky US racing varies from £1 to £10, max on bet355 varies from £0 to £20 or more (they were giving me 50 today on a slight arb on one of the short favs at Newmarket), so I can tick along a bit longer at those levels but just about ….
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Very interesting post 78nad , think i might try the trial run.
There’s plenty casino / bingo offers to get your teeth into fog if you’re still game.
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Thanks minister. I’ll have a look. Haven’t seen much on casino. Ladbrokes sent me a free tenner last week but it won nothing…
+0Thanks for the reply Fog, that’s really made things clear for me. I have lost a fair few accounts, I’ve found Sky awesome for the 2nd/3rd and this week 4th places, Ladbrokes tend to be the best ones for the bet x get x offers. So probably two of my biggest earners for easy options. I have lost a handful of others, but a lot I am not so worried about such as Boyles, Betway, Coral and Vernons. I still have Paddy, William Hill, Bet Bright, BetFred, Totes, Leo and lots others to tick me along.
I work a hell of a lot, that amongst three children hasn’t really given me much time to look at acca’s as yet, but I have a basic understanding of how they work and this forum as well as oddsmonkey tutorials and I’ll have that nailed for the new football season.
I’ve also not done Bet365 horse offer as petrified of losing them as I love the risk free £50’s they do through out the football season!
And I am with you on each way arbs, I have done a few and found some fantastic guaranteed returns but I know this is a sure way of getting gubbed quickly and tend to do the odd one here and there to cover qualifying losses if I have had bad luck with the horses.
I am for sure going to try out the value betting, possibly with pretend bets to begin with, although I don’t have to rely on this yet and I know the bookies are technically correct for gubbing me but they are crooks all said and done and the idea of rinsing them even more is great!
I really appreciate your time to reply, great help mate, thank you.
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Update: I stopped laying off the place parts on a good number of e/w arbs this week with high enough stakes, where the place parts lower 2.0 or lower with bookie. Saw a night better return. Will continue with it and will try to increase as time goes on.
+0Great post FoG, that’s the sort of information so useful to many people reading these forums.
Deej, I assume you’re a member of OddsMonkey (you mentioned the tutorials), if so I found the Acca Finder tool excellent at the end of the last football season. Only used it for William Hill, but the tool made it so easy to find acca’s and gives options to ‘lay at start’ or ‘sequentially’ etc and easy to keep track of the acca. Well worth the monthly subscription price just for that. Just wait until the football season starts though as I’m sure placing bets on the obscure leagues now will lead to a quick gubbing.
I have had a quick read through this thread, and from what I can see this is the same method that’s been discussed for a few months on OddsMonkey. On the General forum, there is a thread titled ‘EW (Each way) Value, and using the EW matcher to help’
People have been posting a summary of their bets each day so may be useful to read for people on OddsMonkey.+0Thanks Tornado, I will be having a look at the Acca tutorials for sure in the lead up to the new season! It seems to be a good source of income for a lot of people.
I have been reading a lot on the Oddsmonkey thread you have mentioned and it’s certainly giving me a great insight into how to play this. It does seem the best way is just to not lay anything as long as you are backing horses with +EV. There can be a bigger swing in variance doing it this way but having faith in the value over time seems to yield good profits from small E/W stakes in every instance and the Oddsmonkey matcher just does all the hard graft for you.
To reduce variance to a lot of people seem to be laying 80% of the odds on the win part and are getting the matches at the exchanges 95% of the time meaning a small arb before you’ve started and profit if the horse places.
I am for sure a rookie when it comes to this but it is definitly something I think that we should share success and failures here on the forum with as it seems a great way as Dan says to stick it to the bookies who have restricted us one last time before we get hit with £0.00 stake restrictions!
+0@ Foggy, you wrote “There is some wriggle room though. If there is no liquidity on the place on the exchange as often it doesn’t come in until just before the race then I do a fair estimate of the true odds based on the mid point of the back and lay odds, or the lay odds divided by the over round to remove….”
Could you expand a little bit on this, in particular the last line, I am not sure what this means. If you have the time could you make up an example to show what you are doing.
When the footie season starts again I will be hitting the accas hard, but this means my accounts wont last long and I will then be in your situation and looking for ways to carry on making around £1k a month from all this. Like you I love sticking it to the bookies, lets face it they have stuck it to millions of people over the years, its nice to get a little something back from them.
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I just mean that because I am not laying the actual lay value available is not important. Usually I use it to estimate the true odds, but if the market is not fully formed I still do an estimate.
For example say the 3-balls Mickelson’s group, their is some money in there but not lots.
101.7% ………………………………97.8%
Mickelson 2.61 … 2.76
Molinari 3.25 … 3.30
Leishman 3.05 … 3.2Matched 2,174
So you can see there is a bit of a gap between Mickelsons back and lay. So what is the true probability that he will win his three ball? Is it 1/2.61 or 1/2.76, ie 36% chance or 38% chance. It will matter when trying to calculate EV.
1. Midpoint
So you can estimate the true odds for Mickelson as (2.61+2.76)/2 = 2.685. Or you can get more scientific and weight the midpoint so if there is twice as much money at 2.61 then you can pick a point closer to 2.76.2. Divide by overround
So you can also estimate by dividing by the overround. For true odds the overround adds up to 100%, but in this case on the lay side it is adding up to 97.8. So I can multiply the odds 2.76 by 97.8 to get 2.76*.978 = 2.69928 to give a different way to estimate the true odds. You can do the same with the back odds 2.61*1.017=2.65437.I usually just do it in my head to get a very rough estimate, because without a lot of money in the market you can’t have too much confidence in the numbers. I think ppl that do a lot of ew arbs will get a better feel for where the market is going and where the eventual back/lay odds will settle.
The exchanges have a way for calculating reduction factor based on the odds even on not fully formed markets and its gotta be something similar to this for estimating the true odds.
Thats all I mean Dave. So it means if you are betting on value you have wriggle room and can get on bets you wouldn’t be able to if you were strict match betting because of lack of liquidity at the time you want to make your bet.
+0Thanks for the explanation Foggy I will need to read it through a couple of times before I understand it completely. Did you work all this out yourself or did you come across this information somewhere on line?
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I’ve probably made it sound complicated Dave by how I explained it, but really its mostly common sense.
With ew arbs especially where you find a good match on the win part early in the day its a bit of a guess on the place part how far it will move from the lay odds as the place market might not be fully formed. Where the lay odds on the place ends up determines how much profit you can guarantee if you’re laying, or how much value there is if you’re just taking value bets. It’s just a guess that it will fall somewhere between the current back and the current lay. But unless someone puts decent money up and someone else matches it then you can’t read too much into the numbers, but all the same its the best information available to make a best guess at what the true odds might be or might end up at.
+0To switch to horses u might have a massive odds on favourite. 2nd favourite is 6.0, so place odds 2.0
The other horses are all rubbish, so in reality our 2nd favourite will finish in top 3.The lay market may well be 1.2 Back, 1.9 lay on its infancy. Some people will probably lay at 1.9 to make a few pennies, but as we know there is a high chance our horse will finish top 3 we can be pretty sure the lay odds will come in.
Overly simplified but in short fields u can guage the chance of placing, which should translate to the place odds+0Thanks Foggy and betman for the explanations. Have you guys looked into actually trading the place market on the exchanges. I’m just thinking that sooner or later even using restricted stakes the bookies are eventually going to get fed up and either ban you or limit you to pennies.
I assume liquidity is going to be the big problem, but that also might be an advantage in that it is likely to keep away the pro BF traders away from this market until the very last few minutes.
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