Mad Few Days!
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With the Ryder cup, prem footy and the odd horse race I have made £170 quid since Friday and have £105 free bets to convert.
I have a £2000 float, at what point I had £20 in my current account and a fiver available in Smarkets! Anyway, back to real life today!
Hope you all had a similar weekend.
+0October 3, 2016 at 9:56 am
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Good spot, cheers Fog!!
I also missed Sportingbet and StanJames from the list, will pull a full one together this afternoon 🙂
Will also try the Paddy shop offer, although I wished they printed a ‘decimal’ version of the sheet, those old-school fractional odds do my head right in!
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Thanks loads for this info I’ll look in more detail tonight! Any tips on good starting sites…I’m gubbed from Vernon’s but partner might start an account ha fact
+0Either the acca winning or getting a free bet the majority of the time, i decided to not bother laying. I just pick 5 matches all short prices. Saves the hassle of laying each leg and don’t have to worry about matches overlapping.
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@MbPunter tried that approach for around 6 weeks and ended up binning it off.
My experience was that the modern game was throwing up too many underdog victories/draws….. just look at Barca, Real, Man Utd, PSG of late. I ended up with a few free bets but had lost my stake so was still down, only won one in 14 attempts (mabe my bad luck?)….
Selecting a high odds 1st match gives me my stake back most of the time, then I just leave the rest of the games to run through.
+0Cheers Fog as always. Last week I did them from 2/7 to 4/9 on and laid off leg by leg. My tactic has been laying 70% of my stake at the start and then continuing leg by leg. Last week did 8 x 50 across the 8 shops along with my PP half time offer. I worked out that worst case scenario is being £120 down plus commission so £130 tops. That was if 0-3 won. Anyway my acca got to leg 5 with all the first 4 winning and the situation I took by laying extra was +300 if Barca won or if they didn’t break even with 400 free bets to come. Barca didn’t win so have been using these up throughout the week.
I am hoping to do a similar tactic in future weeks. I did a Binomial distribution with the lay odds at an average of 1.36 and it calculated that I would either win the acca or get a free bet 58% of the time.
With FOGS news I could hopefully get this average lower and thus increase my chances of getting a free bet or winning the acca albeit I may win a little less should I get to leg 5 like last week intact!
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I’m doing MBPunter’s method.
But my experience is similar to sub_tone. For example Bayern, Man Utd, Real Madrid and Barcelona all failed to win and screwed me up. So no bonus and no payout from Stan James, Paddy Power or Bet Victor. Also my NFL on betstars all odds on favourites acca down the drain. Just stakes lost on 4 acca’s for about €150 loss in one day.
It works out the opposite some weeks like the previous week collecting €300 in the shop from acca’s/acca refunds but its not for the feint hearted.
If you don’t like taking a gamble, or don’t have a big bankroll to sustain short term losses and variances well then stick to laying.
+0I like the idea of not having to lay each leg, but I seem to remember Mark looking into this and concluding that the variance could be much bigger than one would at first imagine.
I am also wondering (have not looked at any stats about this), but are the big teams (Real, Barca etc.) more likely to lose or draw in the first few games of the season rather than after a few weeks?
@Fog, I think this is why a lot of matchbettors pack it in after a year or so, once they have picked all the low hanging fruit. You find that you have to work harder and harder for less and less return. Eventually you realise your not doing much better than minimum wage, and decide to get your life back.
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Thanks Dave_Jones.
Well most of my in-shop accas are 2/1 or as good as evens total odds, so variance can’t hit too hard on that even on a bad run you would expect to be picking up a winner once in 4 or 5. I could sustain 10 losses in a row and that would be highly unlikely (about 1/2 ^ 10, is that about 1 in a 1000?). I guess in the real world if there are 1000 ppl reading this forum and 1000 of them try the same method (no laying) then one would be expected to hit a massive loss and wipe out their bank roll. Hope its not me!
I agree about the low hanging fruit. But beesty, matchedem and others have managed to find ways of making money on gubbed accounts using arbs, ew arbs, extra place offers and bog. Dan has forged the way for proving there is a lot of money to make in shop betting.
And I think you could easily make 100+ per day (about 3000 per month) using shops and arbs and ew arbs. But its not something I can do to get around to 10 shops per day and/or spend my weekends tracking ew opportunities when I have a full time job and family …. So I just do what I have time for and its a little bonus money at the end of the month but nothing like this time last year.
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Just to weigh in here lads with my method. I do accas in Paddiesss and Laddiesss. Mainly Paddiesss though because odds on bankers on coupons are better.
My method I’ve being doing successfully for some time is similar to something mentioned in this thread, I am looking to lose the 1st leg and have 4 bankers after that to get the free bet. This means I don’t have to lay leg by leg. I do a lot of these so try to keep laying time to a minimum. Had more than 30 for the weekends action at the moment going on.
What I do is try to pick an evenly priced game for the 1st game of the five on my acca. Let’s say Team 1: 11/10 Draw: 5/2 Team 2: 2/1 (these are rough figures I don’t want some nerd saying they don’t add up, it doesn’t matter).
I’ll back each of those results on separate coupons so I’m guaranteed that 2 of the accas will have lost on the 1st bet which is what I want, I’m also saving on commission, most of the time I pay no commission. I underlay these so that the one that wins costs me nothing.
Also, I don’t care about have the odds have drifted or changed. I don’t get bothered about qualifying losses these days, i’m doing this on a large scale with great profits so a few quid here and there doesn’t bother me. Perhaps if I put my head into things more I could make a bit more but I’m more than happy and the less time I have to think about things the better.
Obviously one of the accas will win on bet1 so I’ll have to keep an eye on that throughout the acca but it’s only 33% of the accas I’ve put on so it saves a lot on work load.
IMPORTANT NOTE HERE: I don’t do all 3 results on bet 1 in the same shop, I spread it over 3 shops, 6 shops, 9 shops or whatever. But I will choose another game for bet1 in the same shop.
Anyway this works, really well, for me. Everyone will have their own method on this. I’m already going shop to shop for other offers so it ties in well and I look like a mug doing lots of accas!
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Another point for the above. I used to do the method of finding 5 heavy faves and lay sequentially and hoping for the best but I found it often hard to get 5 games on a coupon with times that suited. Doing it my new way means I only need 4 faves at different times which often is easy.
And I’m always laying the 1st game in the above by the way,a nd any other games that win I lay the next.
@FOG, have you noticed the betting machines that they have in the padddiessss shops. They’re not the same as the FOBTs the Brits have in their shops, you can only bet on sports, you know the ones? I’ve noticed that they are now offering acca insurance on footie accas of 5+ more selections. I can’t make out the T’s and C’s but if it’s as easy as padddiesss coupons then this opens up a whole other level. You could go to town altogether on this and really milk it as it’s machine issuing the free bet. I try to claim my free bets from different staff members on different days so that it’s not obvious. A machine giving you free bets though? and 4/5 machines in each shop…???? Oh MAMA!!!
+0Agree with FoG about variance, i aim for an accas around 2/1. Five 1.25 shots for example is around 74% for either winning bet or free bet, assuming true odds. Take off a few percent for odds in bookies favour etc, and it still feels tough to go broke if you have a decent roll behind you.
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Thanks for all the information Dan. I have seen those machines. Always figured you had to log in or something to use them so stay away from them since my account is gubbed. I will have to have a check around how they actually work.
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Loving the information here….ive tried 1 online and 4 in shop accas this weekend so wish me luck!
Quick question…I wrote out 2 accas on the same coupon today. Is that a big no no? Just thinking if both win would I only get the free bet on one of them? Talking laddies and paddies in particular. Not that ill be too gutted as Ill still win!!
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@fog, no you don’t need to enter any info on the machines, just pop your money in, bet and get your printed ticket. That’s why I’m thinking if you can get the acca insurance on them it opens huge doors. I done one today where the 1st game lost so I’m waiting to see what becomes of it.
@matchedem, I always use coupons for the accas, I avoid the handwriting because my know mine at this stage. If you done 2 of the same then obviously don’t collect both on same day and try to collect on different staff too.+0
@Dan87 noticed my local PP has also had these machines installed so would be really interested to hear how they work. I have been using the ‘lose 1st leg’ method for a while now and getting a healthy return from it, never thought of backing all three outcomes of the first leg to guarantee 2/3 advance and reducing volume of liabilities on the exchange.
I have a couple of questions before I hit the shops to try and replicate the method, appreciate any insight you can give….
How easy do you find extracting cash from the Free Bets in-shop, are you able to get 80%+? I am struggling with this at the moment…. any tips?
Realistically, how many accas can you have running without rousing suspicion in the shops and/or running out of cash on the exchange? Again, any pointers or indicators of potential weekly profit would be really useful!
Keep up the good work, sounds as though you are storming it!
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