Make your own arbs
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After watching the effect that the first goal has on the odds for a draw, it got me thinking. If while the score was still a draw, I was to feed a stake value into the calculator along with the expected higher bookie odds that would result from a goal being scored and enter the lay odds prior to a goal being scored, I could place the lay bet on that basis in the knowledge that as soon as a goal was scored, I could place the bookie bet to guarantee profit. Tried it successfully a couple of times already. In fact, on one occasion, I decided not to place the bookie bet after a goal was scored because it was late in the game and I decided to risk it for higher profit.
+0March 21, 2016 at 8:24 pm
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Unless it’s 0-0, and you lose god knows how much liability (£50 @ 3.5 = 125).
So covering yourself by backing 0-0, often around 9.0 means risking at least £10-15. Which then has to made up by the odds change and more for profit…
+0It’s called lay the draw one of the oldest trading strategies going on Betfair. Used to be good now there’s too many people doing it. Also if one of the teams are odds on and the underdog scores first the odds usually go against you
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Could this be protected by taking advantage of the Will Hills ‘Bore Draw’ offer in some way?
Just a thought?
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And if a goal isn’t scored? Watch those ‘Draw’ odds plummet along with your funds and while your there bottom lipping it, praying someone will score because all your liability is about to go down the toilet.
8% of premiership games end up 0-0 which means that every 12-13 games you will hit a goaless draw with this method risking a big chunk of liability in the process. Are you going to be able to make that liability in profit over games where a goal is scored? Sounds like a long term loser IMO
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I made this rookie mistake when I first started – wanted to maximise my in play free bet extraction in a game by laying the draw then placing the back bet as soon as a goal was scored. After the match ended in a 0-0 draw I felt like a complete idiot; lesson learnt.
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I have been doing a similar thing every now and then. I pick a game where I think there will be goals, then wait til about 15-20 mins in, if its still 0-0 then I back over 1.5 match goals. Wait for a goal and lau for profit.
Can easily go wrong though but the way I see it is gambling with minimal risk as if the odds get too high you just lay for a small loss and try again on another game+0
As per the above comment, this is “laying the draw”. Oldest football trade in the book! What your talking about here is essentially trading, and it’s a totally different area from matched betting. That said, plenty of people make a decent earning on it. However, in my opinion it’s far more difficult to master than matched betting. You need a real insight into how odds change etc and a depth of knowledge into stats.
For example, if the away less favoured away team take an unexpected lead, the odds for a draw may not actually change very much as everyone expects the home favourite to score. Therefore you wont be back in profit until the home team scores at least twice.
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Is this not just plain gambling?
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It’s worth a look in my opinion. I love this matched betting lark, but I have a horrible feeling that gubbings will one day catch up with us all and i’ll be back trying to figure out trading!
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It’s just plain gambling in my opinion.
Nothing in this….
When you lay the draw, the odds on the exchange represent a true probability as determined by the market of a draw. So you will win the lay sometimes and lose it sometimes and more or less break even on the lay bet since it represents something like the true prob…. But then subtract commission and you’re on a loss on that bet…
Then you back the draw. The back odds represent close to the true probability at the time. So you wil also win this bet sometimes and lose it some times and in the long run will break about even … But this time subtract the bookie’s edge that they built into the odds you took and you’re on a loss on that bet too long term….
So it’s a double whammy. You lose lose… Any value/profit you get using this strategy is coming from the free bet value and nothing to do with your trading strategy…
Trading is something totally different. I’m sure it’s about spotting trends and value. It’s not as simple as this strategy.
+0To be a successful trader it’s about getting news first and knowing how to react to it. For example if your watching a cricket match on sky if you listen to the radio you will hear about the shot or wicket before it’s been seen. So if you know a team has hit a boundary it’s possible to get your money in before everyone else. Problem is it’s awkward and very rarely works for a couple of ticks in your favour. Doing matched betting though has given me a much better indication of odds in relation to the bookies. I have a strategy I am thinking of using with horse racing. Just need to track a few more horses and if more go the way I want them to then I may get involved.
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You’ve cracked it. Better delete your post now before the bookies see it.
+0Thanks for the advice guys. Only doing this to small stakes at the moment to test the water. The 8% stat on 0-0 results is interesting, as is the comment regarding the outsider team scoring first which has less affect on the draw odds than if the favorites scored first. I had already noticed that myself. The Bore Draw comment wouldn’t apply, because there would be nothing to refund if no bookie bet had been placed. What might be possible though is if the game looks like it is going to end 0-0 place a bookie bet at low odds to offset some of the liability and hope that if there is a late goal you could get the late goal bonus too. This would further offset liability. To date, I have been conservative with my predicted increases in bookie draw odds once the first goal has been scored. Often the actual increase has been larger than expected. This has enabled me to reduce the size of my intended bookie draw bet, thus increasing the profit if the result is not a draw. I am going to continue with my experiment for now and will update you all later on the outcome.
+0Further to my previous post, I note that the 888Sport late goal bonus returns your bookie stake if the late goal would have resulted in your bookie bet on the draw loses. So if the score is 0-0 late in the game, you could place a large bet on the result being a draw to cancel out your lay liability. If however, a late goal is scored, the bookie draw bet would lose and the late goal bonus would return your bookie draw stake. The lay bet will have won, so guaranteeing a profit. Please let me know if I have overlooked anything but it looks good to me.
+0I think a return to the drawing board altogether is going to be needed here.
Many major flaws in what you are proposing but il just pick on the most obvious one.
without looking at the terms and conditions of the 888sport promo regarding a late goal. I very much doubt it counts on an in running bet on the draw! otherwise wouldn’t everyone in the world just put a ton of money on the draw every match that was a draw near the end knowing they would get there money back if there was a goal in those final couple of mins??? why would you even bother with laying it at all, you would just focus all your money on that gold mine!! lol. like I said some major flaws.+0
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