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Maths brain fart help

  • All,

    I’m having a total brain fart with a bet did today. I keep writing down the maths but can’t convince myself I’m correct.

    So, I bet a total of £125 today EW on a horse at 8.5 (place 2.5). The place initially was 1.7 so I thought I’d lay off all my liability on the place and give me a free shot at the win. I got greedy expecting the odds to come in which never happened so I eventually watched it drift and layed £225 at 1.87 and £30 on the win at 12. It came second.

    I thought I’d ended up winning just over £20. However, I keep thinking I may have lost £100 or so…!!!!

    So. I won the place bet and won £312 .50 at the bookie, but lost £196 at the exchange. I also won my £30 I layed on the win. However, I can’t decide if I’m £23 up or £103 down….

    What am I missing.

    +0
    beaser
    7
    February 21, 2017 at 10:34 pm

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    beaser 7 February 21, 2017 at 10:36 pm

    So my total stake was £250. I can’t decide if I need to subtract £250 or £125 from my winning total, basically…

    +0
    MbPunter 24 February 21, 2017 at 10:42 pm

    +62.50 bookies
    -165.75 exchange.

    So you’re -103 is right.

    +0
    beaser 7 February 21, 2017 at 10:56 pm

    Arse. Luckily I’ve had a brilliant week or I’d be pissed off. I’ll consider it yet another expensive lesson.

    What have I don’t wrong then? My theory was if I bet £125 ew at 8.5 win and 2.5 place if the place odds are 1.75 I can simply lay all £250 at 1.75 and it gives me a risk free shot at the win. What have i missed?

    +0
    MbPunter 24 February 21, 2017 at 11:11 pm

    When the horse places but doesn’t win you aren’t counting the win bet at the bookies as a loss?

    Say it came 3rd. You’d win £187.50 on the place at the bookies. Lose the same on the place lay. But then lose the £125 on the win at the bookies.

    Obviously if the horse was to win you would be massively up.

    +0
    beaser 7 February 21, 2017 at 11:15 pm

    What I’m saying is that at 2.5 I win £187 for a £125 bet. But at a 1.75 lay of £250 I have a liability of £187. I thought they would cancel each other out effectively offering a free shot at £125 on the win at 8.5.

    +0
    beaser 7 February 21, 2017 at 11:18 pm

    My head hurts. And I’m too drunk now. £330 up for the week. I’ll take it……

    +0
    MbPunter 24 February 21, 2017 at 11:23 pm

    Nope because if it places, your place profit has cancelled your place loss. You still have the £125 on the win at risk.

    If the horse was unplaced then yes the £250 exchange win would cancel the £250 bookies loss.

    +0
    MonkeyTennis 3 February 21, 2017 at 11:30 pm

    I see what you were thinking but you would need the place lay odds to be less than half of the place back odds to be in with a risk free shot of the big win if the horse wins.

    +0
    beaser 7 February 21, 2017 at 11:37 pm

    I thought I was though?!?!?

    2.5 back = win 1.5 your bet

    Lay 1.75 = risk 0.75 your lay

    +0
    Mr Crispy 33 February 22, 2017 at 7:15 am

    It needs to be half the decimal odds, ie 1.25…

    That way your liability on a £250 lay is £62.50, which is the same as your overall profit from the bookie if the horse places (returns £312.50 less your original stake of £250 = £62.50)

    +0
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