Not laying anything
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I’ve been doing some calculations and it seems that you get around 1.5% more value if you don’t lay arbs/price boosts. I’ve recently stopped laying them.
But it’s just occurred to me that maybe we shouldn’t lay anything at all? I’ve done more calculations and it seems we still get 1.5% more value even if the lay odds are above the bookie odds.
Does anyone never lay? How does it work out in reality for you? For those that never lay, are there any times you WOULD lay?
To me, it just seems to take away value in the long term.
+0May 7, 2017 at 4:08 pm
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What sample size are your stats based on? What kind of sports? Are you talking about ALL bets or just free bets? Don’t mean to belittle your research, but unless you have gathered that data over a VAST amount of bets then you cannot really draw any meaningful conclusions from it imho.
Interested to hear if you used to lay with Smarkets when you did lay as your extra value is roughly equal to the commission you pay them.
I have records of every single bet I have placed whilst MB, so I know for a fact that I have lost a LOT more bets than I have won, and I am a net loser across almost all individual bookie, but we all bet on different things and on different offers, so what suits me won’t suit you, etc…
For what its worth I think you would have to have a chunky bankroll to outlive variance – risk of ruin and all that…
The only regular offer I do (did) where I think not laying would have been hugely more profitable was Hills High 5
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I never lay free bets under £50 anymore and its been very profitable in the long run. Only need one horse at 14/1 to come in.
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… but presumably you always lay your qualifiers?
OP not clear whether he means all bets or free bets, which is a significant distinction – as you say Chris, no harm in not laying freebies as you are literally risking nothing other than the forgone opportunity cost
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@Tony I am talking about all bets, both free and not.
There is no sample size of previous bets. I simply used a matched betting calculator to work out the what I would win/lose and multiplied by the chance of winning/not winning the bookie bet to work out the bet’s long term value. I changed the commission on the matched betting calculator to compare the bet’s long term value if laying on smarkets, laying on betfair, laying at 0% commission, or not laying the bet at all. The value of laying at 0% commission and not laying at all was always equal. The 1.5% figure I quoted was roughly how much more value it was to not lay at all (or lay at 0% commission) than to lay on smarkets.
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Yeah always lay my qualifiers but do sometimes dable in 50% lays too like on Churchill yesterday. It just depends on how well I’ve done in a given week and confidence in a bet. But yeah, dont bother laying free bets.
+0I think you’ve done the algebraic equivalent of proving x = x there!
Not everything is as simple as that, but generally we take the value and laying hedges against variance but giving some value up in commission and to ppl on the exchanges.
Variance can be huge, my 30 day gain/loss has swung between over 2k both sides recently.
If you build up to it you’ll work out what you are comfortable not laying and have the bankroll to back it. If you jump into not laying too quick you risk variance covering poor strategies.You should layed Churchill 100% Chris then backed it again on exchanges! I laid most of it, and just missed backing more at 2.74 when it started – think it went 2.44 then constantly down in running
+1Every one of my Bookie accounts is showing a profit, my exchange accounts are showing a loss. In my case it would have been 2% extra profit.
Coincidently I came on this forum to start a new thread about bookies profits this week in particular.
This week I have won £4500 with bookies, unfortunately I have lost £3750 at the exchange. I couldn’t pick a losing bet if I tried (which I did on numerous occasions). Here is a summary:-
Won 4 365 feature races on the bounce, promptly got restricted to £10 stakes.
Opened another 365 account and won 3 Feature races on the bounce!
Won 4x£20 bets at sky-all at odds over 8/1.
2 e/w arbs at high odds won at Stan who have now gubbed and restricted me.
Ladbrokes, don’t get me started-won over £1500 with them this week. Just checked the Arsenal V United result and of course I won a huge amount! I have just e mailed them and restricted myself from future promotions, save them the bother.I would never stop laying bets, but my current data goes back over a year-how much of a sample do you need to prove a theory?
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I think with horse racing and arbing/EW arbing, not laying at all is by far the most profitable in the long term…well I don’t think that, I know for sure based on months worth of results.
If you place an arb bet, even if the exchange price stays the same, the SP at the bookmaker will almost always be less than the price you took, hence this edge in the long term would be profitable.
The problem is variance, April was the first month since I have been matched betting that the exchange has been in profit but May so far has quickly rectified that with bets winning at a rate most pro gamblers could only dream of!
Incredibly ironic really, people could spend a lifetime studying form and stats, when to make a profit all you have to do is take a value bet (revealed as an arb between a bookmaker and exchange!).
THAT SAID, what if some people are just unlucky when they bet…so you arb and want losers and they win…yet when you back only all of a sudden the winners dry up…perhaps there is a lot more going on in this world than what we can consciously understand.
I don’t even think you need to arb to show a profit, just simply looking at a betting market and taking whatever selection is the closest match to the exchange price yields profits, which basically means that when we are finding the lowest QL, we are finding VALUE.
I was in a competition with work over Cheltenham and I won (I lie, I came 2nd :)) it without even looking at the form of any of the horses. At 11:30 am, I simply went through the card looking for the closest matches to the exchange, that was how I picked my selections and the frequency of winners/placed efforts was incredible!
+0Whilst you’re right about commission etc and giving away value.
If you weren’t to lay anything at all, you’d miss out on value by having to stake within your roll for some offers/arbs etc.Say i have a 5k bank, i might he happy to value bet 50-100 on an arb of 3.0/2.75. Whereas if i was laying off i could put on alot more and guarantee in excess of your EV of not laying.
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I’ve thought about this and on Saturday, I had 9 horses and 2 won, Sunday, 5 horses, 2 won. Normally if I win 2 horse races in a row, then I punt the next race (if I feel confident).
I do a few accas which I punt, won £34 today, but horse races are too random, rather take a guaranteed profit. Not been too bad since Friday, £340 profit with a mix of free bets, slots, punts and the odd arb.
+0well….i just had a look at my betfair profit and loss over 3 months and it shows -£4181!!!! So that money must have at least gone into bookie accounts as everything was matched, if i’d never laid those bets off…..!?
+0I use a spreadsheet that shows me all the info. If you don’t, simply look at your bank statement. Are the majority of you deposit amounts at the bookie or at the exchange, are the majority of your withdrawal amounts the bookie or the exchange?
+0steve, i hear what you are saying, at times i have felt like if only i was not laying
yes the statistics say that we should not lay anything, because over a long period of time it should be profitable
however, while i am not disagreeing with the above, a few practical points can make your decision for you
-have you got the bankroll to not lay to avoid variance, which could be big swings at points, or are you building a bankroll from low
-how long might you be at this, you could unfortunately get an account gubbed quickly just way it is, that means variance is a bigger issue as what if you didnt lay those free bets and they didnt come in
-another point in variance is this, if you have a £20 free bet, compared to a £50 free bet, and you keep backing 10/1 shots, what if every say 8 races your £20 free bet wins, however you never win the £50 free bet one, also if you mix up betting 8/1 and 10/1 and 12/1, this is variance that you can not even avoid if you went at it super strategically
if you can make peace with the fact that slightly reducing your profits avoids variance then stick at it, however if you change your method, be prepared for whatever happens
i started out from scratch having to build a bankroll, and making profits for me is like a second job, not a form of having fun, so for me i lay nearly everything off apart from silly little small free bets and those ones not easy to lay, for example the ladbrokes in play free £10 bet, must have done 20 plus of them if not more just punting them and cant ever remember a winner lol
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Well I have been doing a lot of no lay acca’s. And working out okay so went for other no lay methods. So I haven’t layed a bet in 2017 so far.
Advantage is probably not what you think.
Good:
1. Bank management. You don’t have a big float tied up in the exchange. Instead you can have smaller balances in a lot of bookies. Can operate with a smaller bank.2. Time saving. Obvious enough saving time not laying. Not making the lay, not checking the lay is matched, not stopping what you are doing and logging in to lay the next leg.
Bad:
1. Variance. You can easily burn through £500 with no return. And the longer you do it, the more likely it is to happen at least once.
2. Profit. Although intuitively you think you will make more money, and theoretically even. You won’t. You will find other ways to handle variance. You will have to. So you will extract your free bets on 6/1 horses for even 75% theoretical long term extraction as you cant wait 20 free bets on that 20/1 horse that is 90% extraction. You will do an acca with all very short odds legs even though the acca with 4 short legs and that very close match long leg you found say 8/8 would be worth much more. You just can’t cope with that kind of variance. Variance can be bad enough waiting for 2/1 acca’s to win, never mind starting to throw in 10/1 or 20/1 total odds accas because they can be optimal value. And as mbpunter said you will go in smaller stakeson an arb or ew arb to cope with variance. Where as if you were laying you could drastically up your stakes.+0
Since yesterday I’ve also stopped laying the place in Sky and Paddy Power extra place races. £25 each way only, lay off the win part and let the place run. Yes it is gambling but great value bets especially if there are two extra places being paid. Three out of three so far:
2.55 Newmarket (yesterday) – East Street Revue – 4th (10/1)
3.35 Newmarket (yesterday) – Talaayeb – 4th (14/1)
3.00 Ayr (today) – Secret City – 4th (14/1)Now theres an argument to be made that I’ve been very, very lucky but I choose my races carefully, non runners helped in two of those races as bookies reduced their place terms to 1/5 in line with the extra place offer. Todays race at Ayr was paying 5 places so that was a shot at two extra places.
I’ve got one more tonight, Casement in the 7.20 at Windsor backed and layed at 20/1. Avoiding the 6.20 race.
Of course, I am missing out on winning both bets but it doesnt always work out if the horse wins, comes second or third and theres a strong possibility I could do another three and just lose £75.
Just thought I would add to this as its kind of on topic.
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