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    Chris 19

    Nice one harris, well done mate.

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    deathstar 25

    Actually, without being all matchdem on everyone, I said Richter at 11am. And of course I underlaid and of course it came nowhere! managed to get on Englishwoman though.

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    Dr_Ryan 3

    @FoG_BLoG Thank you for the tip 😉

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    sleepless 9

    Set up a twitter feed for a premium betting site FOG!

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    FoG_BLoG 49

    I didn’t win much. I’m experimenting with small stakes on the early prices. Seems to be going well. Hard to do wrong, either the price shortens and you get an arb or you’re on a great price for the favourite or the price lengthens and you get bog or bog plus.

    I started on Stephens day and I made money 6 out of 7 of the days I’ve tried.

    They only gave me €1.79 ew on it. I don’t bother laying for such small stakes, just take it as a value bet.

    Deathstar you also mentioned clubland if I remember right. I took him at 14/1 and his SP was 7/1 so not a bad tip there either. Sure he didn’t win or place but that’s just the luck.

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    Chris 19

    Its easy when you know how.

    I should have taken the guaranteed money on that one which was £18 but got the dollar signs in my eyes and went for £60. Lesson learned although it cost me nothing.

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    deathstar 25

    yes, I had richter, clubland and Englishwoman, and even though that one placed, I would’ve made more fully laying and taking the guaranteed cash. then again, I only did £25 stakes coz there wasn’t much liquidity, if I’d bet more it would’ve been different. ifa woulda shoulda coulda etca !

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    supert 4

    I had a small £25 ew clubland too 17.0 layed win 12.5…. went for a free shot at £112.50 on the win… laid place 3.5 for chance of £37.5… and yes…. Sod all!!!

    Richer sounds… 4th 🙁 nothing 🙁

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    Chris 19

    Ah that makes it harder knowing he came 4th.

    Back to work (the real job) tomorrow so taking a few days off.

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    pbetts 2

    Richer sounds ???
    No wonder you’re on a losing streak supert
    You’ve probably just bought a 27inch and a beta max with your Christmas money ???

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    betman 41

    So the unanswered question seems how you are picking the horses- some scientific approach or just look at the horse itself for what you feel is value?

    I toyed with this trading approach on alpine secret in the 1.50 at Plumpton. Backed at 20, saw it drift to 33 then accordingly came right in to 14SP ….but zero liquidity and it ran poorly so didn’t get matched in running. Place would been a good arb, but I only covered my place stake hoping that would come in

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    FoG_BLoG 49

    What it is for me betman is mostly checking the exchange and oddschecker.

    Nothing more than that.

    Before Christmas I started trying to make some money off BOG. So I found horses with close back and lay odds that I could cover for zero QL the night before. So like Lady Nayef last night could back and lay for actually qualifying profit. They are not hard to find. Last night I found 8 horses…

    So I used to back and lay and gamble on the price drifting and so making profit just off BOG. But it never happened, 90% of the time the prices shortened.

    So I changed my approach. Backing the horses with the tight matches but not laying them. And so far over a week on bet365 I am up €200 profit. Which might not be lots but my stakes are restricted to winning €12.50 per horse mostly on early prices. I can usually lay 90% of my horses the next day for guaranteed profit but when you have 3/1 on an evens favourite I just let it run. My stakes are so small that it’s not worth laying anyway. It’s not high risk..

    I’ve backed about 100 horses, some win, most lose. I’ve only had BOG on two winners which shows that the prices shortened on most of my selections..

    It’s pretty crazy. Like I say. Get on some early prices and with the bog guarantee then the next day you either have an arb or worst case you should close to break even by laying at the levelled off market rate which the bookie is going to pay you close to regardless (or even over that price as with BOG +).

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    betman 41

    So you’re still looking at the bad each way races, but on something with close odds the night before?
    Presumably on betfair as smarkets has poor liquidity, but commission doesn’t matter if not laying then

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    deathstar 25

    I use pretty much the same tactics as Fog, but look in the morning as I’ve found a lot of horses get pulled out overnight, obviously affecting the place markets. Also, as I use my gubbed accounts for this I don’t get BOG so if I see a horse drifting I lay the win part and either see if the place comes back in or maybe let it run. usually the place is not too far off because the odds *should* be an arb anyway.

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    orlandosteve 2

    So Fog, Deathstar any tips for tomorrow’s races?

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