The Bookie Angel-Twitter.
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Has he gone? Can’t find any trace of him?
+0December 25, 2016 at 2:59 pm
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Very interesting Mr. Fog. I remember months ago you you saying about trying to get BOGS, so I tried very tight back and lay odds on favourites and 2nd or 3rd favs in the mornings . So many won but i hit hardly any BOGS. Therefore my bookie accounts increased a lot and my smarkets got hammered. I then stopped doing it and got a few gubbings.
Fog has also hit many winners so I might also try backing to small stakes on gubbed accounts without laying them off and see how it goes.
Fog do you pick any horse that has tight back and lay odds, even say 20/1, or are they all fancied horses like favs and 2nd favs?+0
Betman some I do e/w others I just bet single to win. Depending on the runners and prices. If the tight match is on a horse in a bad ew race I’ll probably go ew, so long as I think there are enough runners that a couple of non runners won’t upset the place terms.
I’m learning as I go along and not much expertise on horses (I’m not stupid though either, have picked up a few things over the last year or so) that’s why I asked pbetts opinion on lady Nayef last night…
But some signs I look for.
1. Obviously tight lay odds on exchange
2. Odds on oddschecker where one bookie is out of sync with the rest, probably means that bookie has mispriced it.
3. On the exchange the amount of money. Obviously if you see 50p available to lay at 8.0 you won’t have the same confidence in the price shortening as if you saw £100.I’m beating SP 90% of the time so following this will probably get you restricted. That’s why I’m trialling my approach on bet365 where I am already stake restricted.. It helps that they give bog plus too so if I get one wrong it softens the blow.
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Ratlover, that’s interesting that you saw the same thing.
I’m backing 20/1 too. Especially at e/w these horses give a good chance of returning something. I had one horse at 50/1 and he went off 18/1 sp so well worth having a shot even if the odds are high because they can come in a lot.
I think oddsmonkey or some odds matching software would be useful.
I don’t want to give out too many tips because I have an uneasy feeling that ppl are following me and I’m not an expert on horses and would feel awful if someone lost a lot of money following one of my tips – sorry!
+0Thanks Fog.
I feel fairly confident of beating SP myself over the long term, but without liquidity to lay its still gambling albeit value betting. By finding the ones with plenty liquidity and a close match you are in theory latching onto horses where people way smarter than me are confident to back, hence the lay offering.+0Thanks for a great reply fog. If we don’t lay them off then in fact it is gambling but I suppose it’s worth a bash to small stakes. A lot do win when there is a lot of money to lay in the lay box compared to other horses in the same race. It must be from people in the know wanting to back the horse.
I’m not sure if you get BOG on restricted accounts.
Fog I don’t think anyone or a bookmaker is following you as you are not naming the horses or race times or stakes.+0
I used to find horses and back them the night before in my early matched betting days… i learnt the hard way… quick way to get accounts restricted/gubbed…. same with straight forward win arbs…. gubbings come fast… the great thing with ew arbs is usually you are taking the win odds slightly higher at first which doesnt flag up as quickly!!!
You can still get great value on the day of the race and you wont flag up as quickly
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I’m not really saying not to lay it off. I think watch the lay price and when the value is there ie when the price shortens significantly then lay it off for guaranteed profit. If the price never shortens then lay it off just before the off, if you get bog or bog plus then you should be about breaking even in this scenario.
Only reason I haven’t been laying off is because my stakes are small I don’t mind taking the risk. I’m a bit of a risk taker when it comes to bookie money. With my real money I’m the opposite. I treat my bookie money like Monopoly money until I withdraw it….
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Thanks for the heads up supert…
+0My Mistress 10.0 win 3.25 e/w
Club House 15.0 win 4/5 e/w
Lotara 11.0 win 3/5 e/wThree for tomorrow. Don’t shoot the messenger if it goes tit’s up. 🙂
+0@Bazza got a massive £2.50EW on your selections
Club house@8.35AM 8.8/4.4
#Legend
Keep em coming mate, all worth a little flutter IMO.
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Hereford 3.55 has an arb on most horses – be VERY careful though, one non-runner and the places are cut to 3
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…aaaaaand theres the non-runner…..
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I see Richer Sounds did the business on the Sky Bet extra place race today.
+0Thanks for your kind words Orlandosteve. I noticed as well Club House came in to 8.8 this morning but drifted back out to 13.0 later in the day. :-/. The other two prices didn’t really move that much.
Difficult to know when to lay these beasts.
But as someone once said Tomorrow we go again ;-D
+0I placed my lay on club house just before I posted, small loss on the other 2 so I owe you a pint ?
Looking forward to tomorrow’s…..
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