Totesport sign up offer question
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So i did the totesport sign up offer Bet £25 set it as stake not returned as to underlay. If win at the bookie thats it, and if i lose i get the stake refunded as a free bet. How do i calculate my actual profit if i win at the bookie though? my calculator says 17.49 profit but im not sure if thats correct. Just wonder how i go about working out loss/profit etc
+0November 10, 2016 at 5:09 pm
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Potential profit at bookie (A) minus exchange liability (B) = profit if it wins at bookie.
This is why you underlay it making (A) bigger than (B) so as to even out the profit regardless of the outcome. It does of course rely on fairly accurate estimation of how much you will extract from the free bet, if the qualifying bet loses.
What back and lay odds did you get? If you post them up i’ll write out the 2 scenarios with numbers to make it clearer.
These “refund if it loses” offers can be a little tricky to get your head around at first, especially if you have been used to simply Bet X Get Y offers.
HTH
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Thanks for that tony, heres my odds and stakes..
Bookie stake £25
Laystake 17.49
Back 3.75
Lay 3.95
Comission 2%+0
Ok, so with those numbers…
(A) = £68.75
(B) = £51.61…leaving you with a profit of £17.14 if the back bet wins.
Now, if the back bet loses you are £25 down at the bookie and £17.14 up at the exchange, giving you a net loss of £7.86 but with your £25 free bet to come.
IF you get 100% extraction from the free bet then you will be £17.14 up on the whole offer, which is what you would expect as you must have used £25 as the “cashback” value in Matt’s calculator.
The trouble is, you are unlikely to get the full £25 out of the free bet. It can be done but not always. Most people work off an assumed extraction of 80%.
Therefore, you could have put £20 in the cash back box (80% of £25 free bet) which would have given you a lay stake of £18.77 and a balanced profit of £13.39
HTH
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Thanks tony, i understand it a little better, turned out i won at the bookies.
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Good stuff! ?
Totesport has the same price boosts as Betfred on horses and footy (keep an eye on their twitter feeds tomorrow), so you might find that you can put your new balance to good use on an arb. Their price boosts are £100 max so you could even get the whole balance on a good one if you have the exchange float to cover the lay bet.
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