Trading Technique?

Maybe something people would not like me sharing, or could be something that is well known already, but I thought it was quite interesting.

Coral this morning boosted Aguero to score anytime to 3.0, I looked at the lay on betfair and the back/lay was around 2.4/2.44, which usually I wouldn’t have queried, however, I noticed underneath Kelechi Iheanacho was laying for around 2.1/2.12. Which seemed odds that he was more likely to score anytime then Aguero.

Clearly what happened was due to the Coral offer everyone was laying Aguero, and therefore this made the lay price artificially increase to a price which wasn’t accurate.

I decided to wait and right now the lay price is more realistic of 1.92/1.92, which is quite a considerable difference to the 2.4/2.44 earlier this morning.

The question is, I was almost certain that the lay price would drop to the more accurate price once the Coral offer had been removed. Therefore I’m pretty confident I could have backed a nice sum on Aguero at 2.4 and waited until around now to lay it off at 1.92.

From my limited knowledge of Trading (if this is even classed as trading?) it can be quite risky if the odds were to have drifted the opposite way, but in this scenario I was almost 99.9% sure the odds would move in my favour.

Open to suggestions on whether this would have worked if I had gone for it?

Cheers lads.

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RyanB
14

November 5, 2016 at 2:08 pm

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Johnbo 15 November 5, 2016 at 2:17 pm

I think on that market given aguero is almost certainly going to be the favourite, it would have been an excellent call, you would just have to make sure there was plenty of time from the coral offer dropping to the off time (as there was in this case).

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Pickle 60 November 5, 2016 at 2:20 pm

Strangely ive just had a quick scan on Bet365 and theyre both the same price for first goal and anytime. Id have thought Aguero would deffo be shorter.

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RyanB 14 November 5, 2016 at 2:20 pm

Currently laying at 1.86, i’m not sure how much you would have been able to back at 2.4 etc but for example £1,000 would have given profit of £260 which isn’t a bad sum..I’ve noticed it with quite a few times when bookie boost odds..one to keep an eye on definitely.

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Johnbo 15 November 5, 2016 at 2:25 pm

Aguero 1.86 to lay right now…definetely something to consider.

What time was the coral offer up?

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RyanB 14 November 5, 2016 at 2:27 pm

I put the bet on at around 10:15, so when the offer went live & got removed i’m not sure, guess that depends on how many people took up the offer.

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sub_tone 0 November 5, 2016 at 4:34 pm

I was thinking of a similar approach, but avoided is as Aguero has not always been starting the Premier League games, and this would have impacted the price pre-kickoff.

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beesty2016 3 November 5, 2016 at 5:19 pm

Interesting Ryan did the price take a sudden dip at 2 when the team news was announced?

It is something I’ve seen a lot in the past with the horses. Not got involved but it’s on my list of strategies if I get to the point I’m struggling from my ew arbing.

The pattern is if you find the boost straight away and it suits MB then you can lay the horse. Let it go up in the period the offer is on then when it hits a point or you think the offer is about to be pulled back even bigger and then lay off before the race.

I reckon if you time it perfectly there is a decent chunk to be made but even if you find the time the offer is pulled backing it seems the perfect chance.

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FoG_BLoG 59 November 5, 2016 at 8:04 pm

I did track this for one horse boost and it put me off. It was a few months ago and a betfred boost. The horses odds on the exchange started drifting way out as the match bettors clambered to get their lays on. I did consider backing on exchange at the high price and prepare to lay it when the price boost was pulled. I decided to jus keep an eye on it instead. What happened was betfred boost finished and the odds on the exchange continued to drift and drift and drift. I would have taken a big loss if I had got on.

So it’s obviously not without risks. I would like to do more research before recommending this strategy. I see the merits in it and probably can make it work but don’t expect guaranteed profit every time.

I think with the horses esp the bookie probably already have a feel for which horses odds are going to drift and they are more likely to boost these horses as they probably know the SP is going to be bigger anyway….

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RyanB 14 November 5, 2016 at 8:08 pm

I think its different to compare a horse drifting to this event of Aguero to score anytime but its one to watch definitely

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MbPunter 24 November 5, 2016 at 8:13 pm

Ryan, i’m sure i told you before not to give your edge away!

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RyanB 14 November 5, 2016 at 8:15 pm

I’ve never done this, nor do I really have the time so if anyone else can benefit from it all the better!

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MbPunter 24 November 5, 2016 at 8:21 pm

But seriously it was massive. I actually backed at average odds of 2.22, but didn’t want to risk being over exposed so didn’t take more at 2.4+. I expected him to be 1.7ish around kick off, but had to lay off at average of 1.86 in the end.

There’s no way Aguero doesn’t go off at odds on at home to Mboro.

The issue is if he doesn’t start then you are struggling to even close out for a loss if you have a decent sized bet on. Once coral pulled the offer the odds did drop slightly but so did liquidity so not easy to lay off prior to team news.

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RyanB 14 November 5, 2016 at 8:24 pm

Yup, I felt there was no risk here I couldn’t see Aguero odds drifting they were always going to shorten, definitely lower than 2.4 odd to at least break even if needs be.

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betman 41 November 5, 2016 at 8:59 pm

I read somewhere else about the betfair boosts that run twice a day, the exchange price jumping out 1 minute before both times.
For some reason never thought of trading even though it was all but spelt out!!
I suppose you can play with that by backing the boost, overlaying in the afternoon then greening out on the exchange during 2nd boost

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dingodollar 8 November 6, 2016 at 5:14 pm

A very interesting post and something I had been thinking about a few months back as you can bet any amount that your float can handle. I was also looking into the betfred price boosts I did a few £50’s to get started but I did not gain or lose that much and thought the risk/reward was not great.The boosts have been pretty awful of late but I like your angle on the fixed nature of a first goalscorer or other type of similar bet.

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