WH jockey/trainer boosts
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Hey, just a heads up post really… 2 trebles on will hill, Nicky Henderson boost: 3 horses 2 to be placed and 1 to win; and Brian Hughes treble 3 horses to be placed (similar to Richard Johnson one yesterday)
Not done any figures or shit yet to see if they are of value, but just thought I’d post for a heads up for people!
+0February 12, 2016 at 10:19 am
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Ran the numbers and there is no value in the Trainer treble, but a bit in the jockey one.
On a £20 bet, Underlaying all legs you come out with £8.09 at current prices. However, if you don’t lay the first race (and therefore assume Bollon Ace WILL place) and then underlay the last two legs you can squeeze £44.69 total profit out of it.
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Whats the scoop (place) 1.35 Kem
Josses Hill (win) 3.15 Kem
PeppayLePugh (place) 4.25 KemOn betfair can lay at 1.52 * 2.44 * 1.43 = 5.3
Will hill offer is for 6.0 – so yes maybe some value here depending on commission and we all seen yesterday how the lays went up and up as the horses came in.
Lets see if I can work it out.
20 on the treble wins 100.
You have to lay Whats the Scoop to place to cover your initial stake so 20/.95
21.05 lay @ 1.52 = €10.95 extra down if he places, if not your break even.
So now you have to also recoup your 10.95 loss … so (10.95+20)/.95
32.57 lay @ 2.44 = €46.91 down if he wins, if not you break even.
Final leg you are down your initial 20 + first leg 10.95 + second leg 46.95 = 77.90 then divide commission. So
82 @ 1.43 down 35.26 if he places, if not you have broken even.
so 100 – 20 – 10.95 – 35.26 = 33.79. Can that be right? Looks to good to me … someone correct my mistake please!
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Okay I keep mixing up my lay values and my liability.
Need to do these by spreadsheet I think.
On my spreadsheet now I have a small profit off the trainer one of €6.90 if it wins and break even if any leg fails.
But with the lay odds going up quickly it is disappearing – so probably like tony says no value in the trainer one.
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Number for Jockey treble, when I ran them earlier (note – prices may have changed already!):
Back treble for £20 @7.5 = returns £150
Race 1 – lay £21.05 @1.33 = £6.95 liability
Race 2 – lay £28.37 ([20+6.95]/0.95) @2.24 = £35.18 liability
Race 3 – lay £65.40 ([20+6.95+35.18]/0.95) = £79.78 liability£150 – 20 – 6.95 – 35.18 – 79.78 = £8.09 profit
If you don’t bother laying the first race then you get:
Race 2 – lay £21.05 @2.24 = £26.10 liability
Race 3 – lay £48.53 ([20+26.10]/0.95) @2.22 = £59.21 liability£150 – 20 – 26.10 – 59.21 = £44.69 profit
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Thanks tony.
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I think we need to be careful with these enhanced trebles guys…
‘If the sum of the rule 4’s add up to 15p+ the market will be settled as a SP treble. If any of the selections are non runners the bet will revert to a SP double.’
Therefore, there are no guarantees that we will get paid out at the enhanced price and so we could get ourselves into difficulty…
Probably best just to leave it or do it as a value bet, rather than laying them sequentially.
+0Odds are getting worse by the minute. Definitely not worth it unless you choose to punt one of the legs 🙁
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The lay odds on the place market are jumping all over the place … there is no depth.
For example the last race at Wetherby you can back on betfair Turtle Cask at 2.3 but the lay is 9.0!
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@Matt – would you read that to mean that they will settle it as an SP treble on the “to place” market, as opposed to the “to win” market?
@FoG – that race doesn’t go off for 4 hours yet! Fairly sure that there will be plenty liquidity in the exchange market by then (just hope the odds don’t shoot up!)
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At current prices you can now underlay all three races in the Jockey offer and come out with £35.13 profit
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I made the point yesterday about the rule 4 on the third race. It didnt place so did not matter in the end but it would have brought the profit down.
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By how much, Chris?
(Edit – laying all 3 races now offers a potential profit of £48.06 on a £20 bet at Hills, thanks to the fall in odds on the 3rd race)
+0Tony, is the lay price based on top 3? Because I think there’s been a non-runner so only top 2 for place now on WH?
Edit: this is for the last horse of the treble
+0Says 10p rule 4 deduction on the last race or the 3!
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Betfair says that Non Runners do not change the Place Terms (i.e. top 3 for the 3rd race). Off to see what Hills says now…
Note that the second race was only ever top 2 “to place” according to Betfair, as there were only 7 runners to start with. I presume the number of “Place” positions is always driven by the number of runners, and is considered the same across the industry (i.e. bookies and exchanges)?
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