WH jockey/trainer boosts
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Hey, just a heads up post really… 2 trebles on will hill, Nicky Henderson boost: 3 horses 2 to be placed and 1 to win; and Brian Hughes treble 3 horses to be placed (similar to Richard Johnson one yesterday)
Not done any figures or shit yet to see if they are of value, but just thought I’d post for a heads up for people!
+0February 12, 2016 at 10:19 am
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Betfair has a 2 place market for 1st and 2nd finish.
Turtle Cask is 3.05 to lay on that market which destroys profits.
Waiting to see what tony says Will Hill count as a place.
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I think that Hills shows the Place market for the 16:40 as 2 spots only (i.e. first or second). I am not going on Live Chat to ask, as its will raise all kind of flags tbh.
I will just stick to my orignal plan of letting the first race go unlayed and then lay the second and third races, using Betfair’s “2 TBP” market to lay the third race. Even at 3.05, it will still throw out a £23.02 profit
Still 10 runners in the middle race, so provided no more pull out of that one it should be fine 😉
Think this will be the last of these I do mind – not worth the headaches, haha!
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To me it looks like the value has totally gone because Turtle Cask has to place and according to Will Hill looks like top 2.
Betfair you can lay this on the “2 Place” market but at 3.05 instead of 1.81 to place according to betfair which is now different from Will Hill’s rules!
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If you haven’t placed the bet at Hills already (which I have!) then I agree that this is better left alone now. However, if anyone else has, then the following might be of use:
Race 1 has 10 runners (and 1 NR) – Both Hills and Betfair classify a “place” to be 1st, 2nd, or 3rd
Race 2 has 7 runners (0 NR) and Hills AND Betfair classify a “place” to be 1st or 2nd
Race 3 is the issue as it now only has 7 runners (and 1 NR). Hills classify a “place” to be 1st or 2nd only, whereas Betfairs “To Place” market views 1st, 2nd and 3rd, so (like you said) you would have to use Betfair’s “2 TBP” market to lay this safely.
Really what should be happening is that the Back price at Hills should be increased given that the horse in the last race can now no longer come 3rd and meet the criteria for the bet to win, as stated when struck, but as this obviously won’t be happening then you have 2 options:
1 – Don’t bother laying anything and cross your fingers!
2 – Accept the situation and attempt to still extract some profit from the bet. I will be going with the strategy of NOT laying the first race at all as I am confident that Bollin Ace will come top 3, then I will lay the second race (odds currently 1.96 for King of the Woods to place) and then lay the third race using Betfair’s “2 TBP” market (odds currently 3.05 for Turtle Cask).
If all goes to plan, then even at the increased odds the I will have to accept on the last race, due to the NR, this will still give an overall profit of £23.02
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Just for the sake of completeness, you would make a net loss of £14.41 by underlaying all 3 races using the strategy outlined at point 2 above. Given that punting the first race can only cost £20 (the lost initial stake) I think it is the lesser of 2 evils! haha
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I agree the terms of the bet that was struck have changed!
But even so the price is still very competitive and I’m happy to let it ride. The combined odds to BACK on the exchange is 7.46 and if you consider these odds to be fair then the 7.5 from Will Hill is more than fair.
Turtle Cask Place 2 market might move yet. There is not much depth in it.
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Well here goes Bollin Ace.
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3rd!
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So you can lock in a profit now but be quick because King of the Wolds lay price is climbing… 2.08 so far.
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Letting the second race ride as well FoG, hopefully to lay the third race only for a decent profit (c.£86), even at 3.00+ odds!! 😉
Pure gambling this btw – not anything like Match Betting… sincere apologies to the purists out there, haha!
+0I just punted £5 on it at the start haha! Didn’t want to risk doing all the lays…
I think King got second? Just need the last one
+0But well played tony, you got away with it haha… You can now lock in good profit it seems!!
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Yeah, lucky, but calculated risk 🙂
Not a lot of liquidity in this 2 TBP market on Betfair mind – have had to take a shitty price on Turtle Cask, but profit is profit!
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Yes 2nd and as seems to be always the lay prices start rising for the next leg.
This is the least fancied of the horses in the treble though. More likely than not to place. Fingers crossed.
+0Hi, for future reference regarding what bookies pay out on placed horses:
No of runners 1-4 – win only
5-7 – top 2
8-15 – top 3
16+ (handicap races only) – top 4The only change to this would be if a bookie did a special on a particular race because they sponsor it etc.
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