£100.00+
Potential Profit
£160.99
Actual Profit

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Offer – Bet365


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 10/03/2020 13:30

The Cheltenham Festival 2020 gets underway on Tuesday and you don’t want to miss this Bet365 offer! Simply back a winner at odds of 4/1 or more in any live ITV race and Bet365 will give us a risk-free bet equal to our stake, up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £100.00+ and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • Offer applies to first win or each way single bet placed on each race shown live on ITV Racing.
  • If our horse wins at odds of 5.00 (4/1) or greater, we’ll qualify for a risk-free bet to the same stake, up to £50.00, on the next ITV race.
  • Risk-free bets must be placed using our own funds and if it loses, Bet365 will refund our stake in cash.

Qualifying Bets:

This offer is available on the first five races each day (13:30, 14:10, 14:50, 15:30 and 16:10).

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

We know that if our horse wins, we’ll be able to extract 75% cash from the £50.00 risk-free bet. We can therefore add 0.75 to the back odds to get our effective odds…

5.50 + 0.75 = 6.25

Overlaying like this is an option, but the guaranteed profits are likely to be small. Therefore, it may be best to lay our bets as normal and hope a couple of our horses win for bigger profits.

The back and lay odds should tighten up as the start of each race draws near. Having looked at the odds available for the Arkle Chase (14:10 on Tuesday), we could place our qualifying bet on Fakir D’Oudairies.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Betfair gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

Betfair are currently offering new customers 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days.

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

If you’re an existing Betfair customer, you can opt in to pay just 2% commission by selecting their Basic reward plan.

For more information about My Betfair Rewards and how to opt in, please see my Betfair 2% Commission page.

We can calculate our stake using my matched betting calculator…

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £49.28…

Bet365 logo

Place £50.00 on Fakir D’Oudairies @ 5.50 = Potential profit of £225.00

Betfair logo

Lay £49.28 on Fakir D’Oudairies @ 5.60 = Potential liability of £226.68

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeExtractedProfit/Loss
Fakir D'Oudairies wins+£225.00-£226.68+£37.50£35.82 profit
Fakir D'Oudairies doesn't win-£50.00+£48.29£1.71 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £35.82 if Fakir D’Oudairies wins, otherwise we’ll lose £1.71. Risking £1.71 to make a profit of £35.82 gives us effective odds of 21.95. So, given that Fakir D’Oudairies is odds of just 5.50 (9/2) to win the race, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

ITV are covering 20 races across Cheltenham Festival 2020, giving us an overall potential profit of £100.00+ on this Bet365 offer!

If any of our selections win, our risk-free bet will be valid on the very next ITV race. We must place our risk-free bets using our own funds and if our selection loses, Bet365 will refund our stake in cash, up to a maximum of £50.00. If our risk-free bet wins, we’ll qualify for another risk-free bet on the next ITV race.

If you’re unsure how to extract £37.50 cash (75%) from a £50.00 risk-free bet, check out my Risk-Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

I’ll update the following table with some actual selections at the end of each day…

RaceSelectionBack OddsLay OddsProfit/Loss
14:10 TuesdayFakir D'Oudairies5.505.60-£1.71
15:30 TuesdayCilaos Emery8.508.60-£1.47
14:10 WednesdayChamp5.005.30-£3.60
14:50 WednesdayDame De Compagnie5.505.80+£63.14 *
15:30 WednesdayDynamite Dollars8.009.60+£35.79 **
16:10 WednesdayEasysland5.005.00-£0.80
13:30 ThursdaySamcro5.506.00+£36.85 ***
14:10 ThursdayRelegate6.006.60+£37.23 ****
13:30 FridaySolo5.005.30-£3.60
14:50 FridayThyme Hill6.006.00-£0.84

* Champ won the 14:10 on Wednesday and Dame De Compagnie won the 14:50 on Wednesday at starting price (SP) odds of 6.00 (5/1), resulting in a profit of £63.14, courtesy of Bet365’s Best Odds Guaranteed promotion.

** Dame De Compagnie won the 14:50 on Wednesday, resulting in a profit of £35.79 on the 15:30 on Wednesday.

*** Easysland won the 16:10 on Wednesday, resulting in a profit of £36.85 on the 13:30 on Thursday.

**** Samcro won the 13:30 on Thursday, resulting in a profit of £37.23 on the 14:10 on Thursday.

Comments


  1. Beth

    Guest user

    Hi Matt,

    Do you know if you get a notification that you definitely have a risk-free bet on the next race? Just want to be sure that I’m eligible. Thanks.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      294

      Yes you should do Beth.

      +0
      Reply
  2. Chris

    Guest user

    What happens if I put all of my bets down in the morning? If, say, the first bet wins, do I need to place another bet on the second race for my risk fee bet? Or is my risk free bet the bet I already placed on the second race from the morning?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      294

      Your risk-free bet would be the bet you already placed in the morning Chris.

      +1
      Reply
      1. Wingman

        Guest user

        Although you would want to reduce your associated lay bet to the risk free lay bet (assuming you’re able to).

        +1
        Reply
  3. Bruce T

    Guest user

    Hi.

    What is the highest qualifying loss you would suggest taking?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Wingman

      Guest user

      Depends on your approach really. I tried to do some research to make it less of a shot in the dark, in which case you might be happy with a slightly higher QL, but I was generally aiming for £2.50 or less on a £50 bet. Sometimes you have to let that sit on the exchange as an open offer to get a match (which risks the market going against you).

      Other times, you struggle for a QL under £5 – in these cases you might be best passing.

      As an aside, it’s probably worth placing a couple of tight matches on races that don’t qualify for the 4/1 bonus – so you’re less obviously doing what you are doing!

      +1
      Reply
      1. Matt

        294

        Agreed, solid advice @Wingman.

        +0
        Reply
      2. Bruce T

        Guest user

        Cheers mate

        +0
        Reply
  4. Stephen H

    Guest user

    Thanks for the tip. I noticed there were 5 races today, should I have bet on each one to maximise the chance of the free bet?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Wingman

      Guest user

      Technicality (potentially) but it is a risk free bet, not a free bet. The second bet still has to be wagered out of your funds.

      But yes, you can win multiple risk free bets per day.

      +0
      Reply
    2. Matt

      294

      It’s unlikely you’ll be able to find a suitable match on all five races Stephen.

      +0
      Reply

Post a comment


Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *