ACCA Insurance: To lay or not?
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As matched bettors, I recommend that you should lay unless you fully understand the risk involved. It’s not uncommon to lose several accumulators in a row. If you place a standard acca with 6 legs at 1.25, you only win 26.2% of the time, get a free bet 39.3% of the time and you lose 34.5% of the time – you’re expected to lose more accumulators than you win. Quite seriously, I’ve ran a few Monte-Carlo simulations (varying parameters, expected value etc.), and the risk of ruin is very high if your bankroll is not suitable.
For example, if you place 100 accumulators at £50 per wager, and your bankroll is £500, your risk of ruin is as high as 75-80%.
If, however, your bankroll was £2,500 (yes £2,500!), your risk of ruin is still as high as 20-25%.
Only when your bankroll is in the region of 100x your stakes does your risk of ruin fall below 5%.
+0January 13, 2016 at 2:20 pm
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Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
I don’t think old Tony needs to explain new Tony. If you’ve read as much as you say you have its there in black and white…. and in all too many posts to some degree so let’s keep to the merits of this post.
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I always happily admit that I was condescending and polarising on here. Pretty simple really: this forum was a tool for helping people to make money and nothing more for me, so I’d rather be blunt and honest. I remember a few months ago I posted about Sky accas and got bad feedback; I routinely back these on the exchange at inflated odds. If you stake optimally (Kelly), you can achieve an expected return of over 100% per annum (based on the average boost etc.). This is literally scalable up to a bankroll of over £100k. But I guess Sky are good at choosing their games as some people think (even though 3 accas won in a row in December). So yes, I do find it amusing – as I said in that thread – when people lay the acca and give most of the value back to others on the exchange. Betting markets are no different to financial markets. A bet is merely an option.
This forum actually ended up helping me discover several trading strategies which I use… I’ve gained loads from being on here. I notice most of the people from months ago have disappeared, barring a few regulars. I’m really not surprised given the lack of opportunities these days. It’s not hard to work out that bookmakers are struggling (relatively), and the potential for FOBTs to be limited in the next couple of months could bring an end to offers altogether.
If you’re willing to think critically about your time matched betting, you can find profitable chances that don’t require offers…
Hopefully this helps someone. Sorry if it’s condescending.
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Mark Corrigan can’t be bothered messing about with chicken feed!
He is the best I’ve seen on here!Anyway Mark, Thomas Hobson 3.75. Was that you gobbling up the lions share? ?
+0Do you use kelly full stakes? Always seemed aggressive to me.
Out of interest, would you still be against running accas?
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Haha! I wasn’t on Thomas Hobson, but I was backing a couple of other horses in that race!
+0Wrong log in Tony C!
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It’s certainly optimal to not lay the accas if you ensure the legs are good value as FOG mentioned. As long as you have the bankroll and are willing to endure downswings, then go for it!
Regarding accas on the exchange, I never stake full kelly and I actually lay individual legs in order to minimise variance.
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You’re so smart MbPunter how did you catch me?????
+0Aye follow them methods. Was just wondering because i think you didn’t lay price boosts. Which feels more at risk to variance than short priced accas.
+0So the sky acca you-
1) were pretty condescending against anyone laying, which you contradict here
2) said that all these boosts were always giving value, which is just basics really
3) said that the exchange prices are all spot on for likelihood of something happening, which again u contradict here.You could call it bad feedback or you could say “Pretty simple really: this forum was a tool for helping people to make money and nothing more for me, so I’d rather be blunt and honest.”
I don’t think anyone doubts u know a lot, but it is a forum to help ppl so don’t discourage ppl or post unhelpful crap
For example several users were proudly punting things of crap value in the new offers forum after your sky post paraphrasing your advice. Helpful? No+0Tbf he means the individual prices are spot on but the acca is inflated on the exchange due to MBs laying.
I noticed this in past and tried backing the acca with the expectation of it shortening by ‘the off’ to the correct odds but it never did.
+0The individual prices aren’t always spot on though, or sky couldn’t be good at choosing games or it would just be variance.
Although that’s less relevant as they are mostly accurate and a good indication of the market….. could been an area to debate being a forum rather than just disappear became of bad feedback, especially in light of the other poor advice given at that time
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Really? I’m unhelpful for trying to get people to think for themselves?
I’m trying to be constructive. Anyway;
1) How did I contradict myself? Sky accas have low max stakes (£20) and you can only lay for inflated odds; therefore don’t lay. Acca insurances (£50 stake) can be laid for (essentially) fair value on individual legs, and it can therefore be beneficial to lay if your bankroll isn’t big enough to absorb the variance.But yes, I get that it’s completely dependent on your risk attitude. The problem I tend to have is when you see people (usually on oddsmonkey) choosing to lay the sky acca but pursue a no-lay acca insurance method. It’s irrational.
3) In general, the exchange is semi-strong efficient at starting prices. There are many inefficiencies which can be exploited.
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Classic Corrigan… always leaves you with a wee cliffhanger, some throw away teaser of a line about the dark arts of exploitation… 😉
And just like that… pppffffff… he was gone
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