ACCA Insurance: To lay or not?
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As matched bettors, I recommend that you should lay unless you fully understand the risk involved. It’s not uncommon to lose several accumulators in a row. If you place a standard acca with 6 legs at 1.25, you only win 26.2% of the time, get a free bet 39.3% of the time and you lose 34.5% of the time – you’re expected to lose more accumulators than you win. Quite seriously, I’ve ran a few Monte-Carlo simulations (varying parameters, expected value etc.), and the risk of ruin is very high if your bankroll is not suitable.
For example, if you place 100 accumulators at £50 per wager, and your bankroll is £500, your risk of ruin is as high as 75-80%.
If, however, your bankroll was £2,500 (yes £2,500!), your risk of ruin is still as high as 20-25%.
Only when your bankroll is in the region of 100x your stakes does your risk of ruin fall below 5%.
+0January 13, 2016 at 2:20 pm
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Sorry, I should point out that the final simulation is based on an indefinite risk of ruin. Essentially, be careful, and try to have 100x your wagering amount in your bankroll (not dissimilar to poker bankroll management) if you don’t want to lay these.
+0Originally I was vocal in favor of not laying these to save on commission, but after looking into it as you rightfully say the variance is so high that its not that unlikely to go broke, and as such losing some of the EV is worthwhile to lock it in.
As an example if you take the 6 top matches on oddsmonkey under 1.5 on hills right now:
Madrid 1.08/1.09
PSG 1.33/1.34
Celtic 1.4/1.42
Olympiacos 1.08/1.11
Barca 1.15/1.18
Torino 1.29/1.32Simply backing this gives an EV of +£16.34, however by choosing our lay stakes based on the result of the previous legs we can lock in as much as £15.20, so we are not losing out on that much value.
I do agree that laying to guarantee profit is the most appropriate approach for 99% of people – but by the looks of it 98% of them cant work out how to do it anyway… Thankfully I am up money following 15 unlaid accas, which is as expected, however I appreciate it was entirely possible I could be several hundred down at this point and as such I am going to progress to laying each accumulator to lock in profit, and suggest others do the same.
+0Thank you both for sharing, I can see how it makes sense to lay these. On my first couple I laid a few legs, but also found the odds had drifted significantly after I had placed the acca.
What’s your experience or recommendations of under and over laying?
+0@JeremyUsbourne
Just to play the devils advocate – by laying you lose more than just the £1 from your example:
– time spent laying/searching/calculating (could be used to find/do other offers)
– to lay them the games need to be at different times so 6 games mean they might have to be over 2-3 days, less acca’s placed = less profitI agree though that variance is an issue and big bankroll is needed and understanding of the maths behind it.
+0Fascinating post. Just this morning I’d been thinking about quantifying the variance. I’ve been running at 1% of bankroll unpaid and doing OK, but I think I will lay for a bit after these results
+0when doing these i have been laying but not every game. e.g in the above example i would not lay madrid, olympiakos or barce. I have only placed 8 accas so far: profited from 4, broke even on 2 (less commission) and have 2 ongoing, one of which i laid but the lay bet won so fingers crossed for the remaining 3 games, the other has had 2/6 winners so far without laying. I put my profit in the £70-£80 (havnt been bothered to subtract comission). Have got to say though i can see good profits ahead in these accas, unfortunately i dont have the bank roll to not lay all the games as couldnt afford to drop £300-£500 in a week without re-depositing.
+0You definitely should lay them. I had 18 accas lose in a row at one point, the last week or 2 has had a far higher number of favourites winning than normal.
+0I think the last 4 ive put on only the last leg has let me down. Ive been letting the first 3 possibly 4 run without laying then laying the last 2 or 3. Only once so far 2 of the first 5 have lost. Im yet to get all 6 right. Thought id cracked it last night but Arsenal let me down right at the end.
+0Just bumping this thread as the topic has become popular again.
+0Good call fog
It’s not all doom and gloom. Knock it back to a 5 team acca and you win 32.7%
My ideal no lay acca is around total odds evens, say 48% chance winning in the lay odds, 38.47% of freebet and 14% chance nothing. Which is still entirely possible to go on a rough streak, and highly important to stay within your means
+1Yes I do the same, try to keep the total odds short as I can. Spread the matches around as well to be not too dependent on one team. I try to deal with variance that way. Twice in four months I have burned through about £300 without any significant wins but its always swung back the right way for me again.
The thing is by laying an acca it cuts out your choices and cuts into your time. Instead of getting £150 on per day, I’m probably only getting £25 done per day. So instead of average £30 per day profit I would be looking at guaranteed £5 profit per day minus commission which I feel eats up about 10% of profits on accas.
So its £900 per month vs £135.
+0That’s why Mark Corrigan is needed back. A true legend of our game and an incredibly helpful bloke.
+0He posted some valuable and insightful stuff, nobody can argue about that.
However, he was also caught out and called out as a liar, and some of his posts were amongst the most condescending I have ever seen on this forum.
I am surprised that you know much about his posts/contributions, given that his participation pre-dates you joining us (or does it?)
Back on topic, I am going to trial the no lay method too FoG (don’t worry, I will not hold you responsible when the first 20 all lose, haha!) as I find your arguments more compelling and I will be well within MC’s bankroll management guidelines in any case 😉
+0Mark Corrigan a liar? E X P L A I N!
+0Okay Tony.
I think I should stop talking about acca’s before I knock anyone else off the wagon!
Just do it in a safe controlled way that if you lose X amount you can build your bank back up with lock in lays. And keep the discipline, don’t get lazy, the temptation is not to check the odds in a calculator, or not to even check the exchange since your not laying. Make sure you are getting value, don’t let bad habits or muggy habits drift in.
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