ACCA Insurance: To lay or not?
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As matched bettors, I recommend that you should lay unless you fully understand the risk involved. It’s not uncommon to lose several accumulators in a row. If you place a standard acca with 6 legs at 1.25, you only win 26.2% of the time, get a free bet 39.3% of the time and you lose 34.5% of the time – you’re expected to lose more accumulators than you win. Quite seriously, I’ve ran a few Monte-Carlo simulations (varying parameters, expected value etc.), and the risk of ruin is very high if your bankroll is not suitable.
For example, if you place 100 accumulators at £50 per wager, and your bankroll is £500, your risk of ruin is as high as 75-80%.
If, however, your bankroll was £2,500 (yes £2,500!), your risk of ruin is still as high as 20-25%.
Only when your bankroll is in the region of 100x your stakes does your risk of ruin fall below 5%.
+0January 13, 2016 at 2:20 pm
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Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
🙂 we’re closer to agreeing now!
I’m massively for ppl thinking for themselves and everyone can learn by discussing stuff. It’s just that a lot blindly follow, especially put so bluntly by someone who clearly knows as much as you (which admittedly isn’t all ur fault!)There do seem a lot of exchange inefficiencies, finding them and time/confidence to take advantage isn’t so easy though
+0Yeah, I am legitimately sorry for being so blunt sometimes!
Like I said, I’ve learned so much from this forum and from researching certain aspects. The one thing almost everyone agrees on is that, over time, their exchange accounts are getting hammered. The question is why? An interesting case is with each way arbing. If you have been each way arbing for a while now, I’m sure your exchange account has a heavily negative P/L. I’ve been backing the place odds for the good EW horses for several months now (effectively taking the other side of the trade from EW arbers). You can frequently get odds that are great value and, more importantly, it’s a scalable strategy that isn’t reliant on keeping your bookie accounts open.
Disclaimer: Your capital is at risk etc. etc. Don’t blindly follow my suggestions without doing your own research ;-).
Edit: With regards to EW arbing, this is nothing new on here. Many users realised that the place odds for these horses would come in on average, and therefore began to wait until closer to the off (this is something I noticed before using this strategy).
+0Some people on here are way too sensitive. Who cares if Mark is a bit blunt sometimes. Like he said – this site should be about making money – simple as that. And as he appears to be very knowledgeable on the subject, I for one would like to continue reading what he has to say on things.
+0You could equally argue that Mark is too sensitive. Some “bad feedback” and we don’t see him for months.
+0Same with win market on the right races I think?
There’s a lot of areas matched bettors effectively share value to the exchange.+0Classic Mark. What a Beta male.
If you’re going to follow anyone’s advice, follow an alpha like The Johnson. I’ve never cried in my life.
+0Johnson’s so tough he would eat the boogers out of a dead mans nose. (Full Metal Jacket).
+0Couple of points from the big dog:
Sounds like Tony C been outed as a dodgy account!
The each way thoughts are really really interesting and I think when my monthly profits start to drop below 2.5 or maybe 2k ill start working on it
“some of his posts were amongst the most condescending I have ever seen on this forum”…what about me you idiot!
+0Matchie, I’ve told you before, you have to take your stake away from your return to get a profit figure.
+0Johnson! THE alpha male returns, welcome back!! 😀
@matchedem Notice the use of the word “amongst” – never forget about you matey 😉What odds an appearance by “Jez” at some point? I’ll offer 6/4 (£1 max!) haha
+0What’s happened to Chris?… gone quiet on the old heat map
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