ACCA Insurance: To lay or not?
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As matched bettors, I recommend that you should lay unless you fully understand the risk involved. It’s not uncommon to lose several accumulators in a row. If you place a standard acca with 6 legs at 1.25, you only win 26.2% of the time, get a free bet 39.3% of the time and you lose 34.5% of the time – you’re expected to lose more accumulators than you win. Quite seriously, I’ve ran a few Monte-Carlo simulations (varying parameters, expected value etc.), and the risk of ruin is very high if your bankroll is not suitable.
For example, if you place 100 accumulators at £50 per wager, and your bankroll is £500, your risk of ruin is as high as 75-80%.
If, however, your bankroll was £2,500 (yes £2,500!), your risk of ruin is still as high as 20-25%.
Only when your bankroll is in the region of 100x your stakes does your risk of ruin fall below 5%.
