Acceptable Risk? Enhanced Odds William Hill
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Hi all,
I’m looking at the enhanced odds on the Man U game.
Odds of 5 for a penalty to be awarded and scored @ Willy Hill
Odds @ Betfair penalty taken (the scored element is missing) Yes Lay = 3.75 or No Back @ 1.37
Is this an acceptable risk for anyone?
+0January 7, 2017 at 11:07 am
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You’re screwed if a penalty is missed! Very little value here, if any.
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Prob better just putting a quid on it if you think it may happen. You want to be avoiding things where you can lose on both sides of the bet or you could end up in the shit.
+0I did actually decide against it and having re-evaluated, agree entirely!
+0I agree mostly. I have match betted, Arbed and traded for long enough to know about losing a bet!
+0Taking odds of 5.0 of a penalty being scored and using the implied probability of 3.75 for a penalty taken, you are getting effective odds of 1.33 to score the penalty. This equates to a 75% chance the penalty will be scored if given. Based on premier league historical data, penalties have been scored 84% of the time.
Therefore you are getting about a positive EV of 12%
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Its not a premier league game though. If Man Utd got a pen id fully expect them to score it. Id be a lot less confident of Reading scoring if they got one.
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