Another bad day’s results……..is it really worth the effort .
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Another poor day trying to find 2nd/3rd to the favourite.
I am thinking is it really worth the bother these days.
Only consolation was the weather was crap so not missed anything else really.
Anyone else of the same opinion.+0May 1, 2016 at 9:58 pm
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I think a lot of it comes down to patience and discipline jdrobbo. You need to ensure you are only taking bets that have either tiny qualifying losses or even better arbs. Check out some of the threads on horse racing posted in the new offers today and you will see some of the posters made a profit today without getting any FBs but just from arbs.
+0I’m kind of with you on this. How people make £1000+ a month is beyond me, what’s their secret? I keep scraping around just for a few hundred a month and end up losing more than I win on horses 2nd places
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Think people were making good money on the previous offers. Most horse offers have gone rubbish in recent weeks. Lads and Will Hills both moving to SP fave offers.
Take yesterday’s flat races, they’re a lottery even with short odds faves. 20+ running a sprint. Sod that
+0Just not the opportunities out there at the minute. I am patient and disciplined but that is not helping at the moment.
Minding won as favorite but it was very difficult to get a decent match in an attempt for 2nd or 3rd place.
I lost £2.50 in trying to get a qualifier and that was best out there.+0Nothing yesterday, slightly better today. Short flat races do seem less reliable.
As Dave suggests, look for minimal/zero qualifying losses which isn’t that difficult near to post if you’re fast.
Don’t expect to consistently be making £1000+/month unless you have multiple accounts.
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Personally I would rather take a £2 qualifying loss on a horse that I felt had a good chance of top 3 finish than wait and wait for minimal loss on an outsider.
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In short, no.
With a bit more explanation…
The offer is 2nd/3rd to SP fav, therefore you are looking for a short price fav (so that gets rid of the majority of races). The ones that do have a short price fav, everybody on the exchanges are banging money on that, so the back/lay odds are way out and not worth the loss (gets rid of almost all races). The only races left are those with 2 short priced front runners with the rest donkeys, these will be better for quali loss. Just make sure you don’t end up backing the fav, easily done when you wait until the last 5 mins and all the match bettirs get on the 2nd fav, pushing it to fav and no chance of a refund.+0
Agree that it’s harder than it was when Paddy and then Hills were spoon feeding us offers like there was no tomorrow, but that wasn’t sustainable. The fact that every bookie and his dog has now moved 2/3 ‘to SP’ hasn’t helped either, but a quick glance at my profit figures tell me it’s definitely (still) worth it.
It’s easy to get dejected, particularly with the horse racing, but stick at it, it’s free money after all!
Multi accounting is definitely the way to go mind! Bring on the summer and the Euros, expect a fair few good offers on that.
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I had my best week since Cheltenham this week although the vast majority came from two slots wins. One was emailed to me the other was one I saw posted on here. I often don’t bother with them but pleased I did this week. Think I’d have made £140 profit if I took them out of the equation.
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I don’t know what people are expecting from MB2 offers. You will often find that the average expected gain for a good match will be £2-4 on a given race (on a genuine MB2 offer, not to SP). It really isn’t a very high return, but will be fairly consistent despite having days where you make nothing.
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100% strike rate yesterday FACT
Its about knowing the horses
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Yes £2-4 per race so on a meeting with 8 or so races that makes up to £32 for minimal effort. Throw in a bit of BOG there too and it’s very profitable per day/week.
There are no decent horse offers out there. I’m banned from most bookies. Forget about the 2nd to sp or 4/1+ offers. Not worth logging on just for the sake of those. Worth having a look if you’re already in MB mode but not worth switching on just for those. They are some fun usually for free or small profit …
Quiet times at the moment.
A good week to get through some sign ups. Or try a new tack. Bet365 seem to have an extra place race every day now as 188 used to or maybe still do. Get working on some acca’s. I’m waiting for someone to come up with a strategy for guaranteeing profit of bog….
Or just take the break and come back in full force when the offers return.
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Hi Fog, interested to know why u rock the 4/1+ offer and say its is no good yet you rate the second place one. In my eyes if you get a similar QL the odds of a horse finishing 1st or 2nd is the same so the profit per race be similar too. Suppose the only thing being u cant back low priced horses, but then again if you back them on the second place offer they will more than likely win anyway
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With the 4/1+ offer the chances of getting a free bet are by the definition not great (i.e. 4/1+ ~= 20%). With money back 2nd you are not restricted in which horse you pick and by carefully picking the horse/race you should be able to get a higher hit rate – just by blindly picking 3/1 and less I’ve noticed you will get 2nd 22% of races and easily improve this by picking races with short odds favs/few runners….
So 4/1+ offer cons.
1. restricted in your selection, if the lowest qualifying loss is on the 2/1 favourite you cant pick him.
2. Probability of free bet < 20% probably between 10 and 15% depending on the horses you are picking and the edge the bookie taking..MB2 offer pros.
1. You can pick any horse.
2. Probability of free bet > 25% if you stick to the fav/2nd fav..Big pro for the 4/1+ offer though is that since you get the free bet if you win then you can overlay to guarantee profit regardless. But the long run profit from MB2 is better in my opinion.
+0At Windsor 13:40 Bet365 have 4/1 offer and BetFred 2nd to SP. Could combine the 2 and atleast have 2 chances on 1 race. Back and lay are a bit off at the moment though.
One thing is for sure…. You’ve got to be in it to win it.
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