Avoiding Gubbing
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Hi,
I’m pretty new to this stuff, but I have understood the basics and I’m currently working my way through welcome offers.
I want to avoid being gubbed in the future when I use the ongoing offers for all customers, so I’m wondering if there is anyone on here who has avoided being gubbed and has been matched betting for 6 months+? If so what are your methods?
The guide says to keep your mug bets to around £20 as that is the average qualifying bet for an offer, but I work out that if you did this over say 6 main bookies 4 times a week you would be -£10-15 even when laying the prices off v closely? Is there another method or is this just the type of hit that you need to take?
+0February 9, 2016 at 11:50 am
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My personal opinion is that your going to end up getting gubbed regardless of mug betting. I did lots of mug betting on paddy power and most of my bets lost with them and I still got gubbed. Also gubbed by ladbrokes literally did the sign up offer then risk free offer on Derby United. Then decided I would use them for a Saturday or horse racing trying to get my horses to finish second. Did a few races at Cheltenham and at Doncaster and got gubbed the next day.
+0Ah that’s lame, I wonder how they clocked you? It’s hardly abnormal behaviour over such a short period of time.
Which exchange were you laying the horses on? If it was betdaq maybe they linked your accounts that way.
Interesting to find out if anyone actually gets away with this for an extended period of time
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Was using smarkets and betfair. Am not sure why they noticed me just unlucky maybe. Am staying away from horses now until Cheltenham only do the odd Sky offer. There’s enough money to be made on football and other things.
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Been doing this for about 3 weeks.
Got my first gubbing today, also from Paddy. Got this from placing 4 bets UK football bets, two lost, two won – lays on Smarkets. Most bets premier league W/L/D but one bet on Hibernian also W/L/D, one free £5 bet in play prem match. Made small profit, under £50.
From reading around seems I’ve just been extremely unlucky, but not much I can do about it.
Guess they can gub at will and a strategy to avoid may have limited impact.
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I always question mug betting. There appears to be very little benefit and usually people who have been gubbed have just been unlucky. Personally, I don’t mug bet.
At the end of the day, if you do this long enough your always going to stand out as a match bettor, you just hope you go Un noticed for as long as possible. Bookies can easily extract data / stats / betting patterns.
One thing I would suggest is to avoid withdrawals from bookies, as much as possible. This is where I will mug bet to transfer money back into exchanges. Obviously you’ll have the odd occasion when you pick 3 10/1 winners in a row and have no choice but to withdraw, but if this happens don’t empty the account, leave a bit in there. Withdrawals definitely seem to be the key thing to being gunned from what I’ve read and experienced.
+0I think withdrawing is a perfectly normal thing to do – most regular punters would!
I’d have thought £100-200 in your account when you’re only placing £20 bets would look weird
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I’ve just noticed I’ve been gubbed on accounts where I’ve made withdrawals, perhaps a coincidence. Also heard the same from friends – different bookies.etc. perhaps its all luck of the draw – who knows. I just think withdrawals brings far more attention to your account whilst mug betting does not really hide your true actions.
Of course withdrawals are normal so I’m not saying don’t do it.. I just think that it’s important to keep them to a minimum, if possible, and to always leave some money in your account.
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When I was a mug if I got a decent win I’d withdraw it straight away.
1. So I didnt gamble it away
2. So I could spend it
3. Because what’s the point in leaving a big float in your bookie account if you’re just a recreational gambler?So I don’t think withdrawal is looked upon badly, as it’s what most regular punters do. I think it’s gar more suspicious of you’re sitting with £500+ in your account and betting week after week never withdrawing but constantly depositing when you get down to zero.
What I do now every Tuesday I withdraw all but £50 from each of my main bookies so that it hits my account in time to redeposit it elsewhere before Saturday. IE I may need to boost my smarkets or betfair balance or swap money between wills and ladbrokes etc.
I also only deposit what I need at the time so I might put £100 in Saturday morning and put a few horses on then if one wins I don’t need to deposit anymore. Because a mug wouldn’t put £300 in to cover every horse if he wasn’t putting all the bets on at the same time.
As for mug betting I bet on “my team” every time they play. I have £50 on them to win or draw or btts etc. It just so happens my team is QPR and they have 0% commission on smarkets. What a coincidence.
+0Some good points, I guess a lot of it is down to luck as some people avoid being gubbed without trying and some who do try and blend in end up getting cut.
From what people have said I think I will avoid withdrawals, especially whilst my accounts are new (systems will likely flag a new account withdrawing as higher risk?) and do most of my bets during peak times. I think for ongoing offers I will overbet the qualifying stake, for the sake of an extra 50p it’s might be worthwhile. With regards to mug betting, I will do this at smaller stakes and have lots of casino activity on whatever has the lowest house edge. I thing longevity is the key to making money matched betting so it’s best to give a little back.
Also I’ve been reading about arbing, other sites state that UK accounts having their odds display as decimals is a dead giveaway for arbing/bonus abuse, so I reccomend sticking to fractional odds and using a converter when required.
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