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Backing on the exchange to cancel out a lay

  • I am in a situation where I am considering cancelling out part or all of a bet laid on the exchange (Betfair) by backing the opposite outcome. I have never done this before and would be grateful for some advice.

    Prior to the beginning of the golf Open Championship I backed Henrik Stenson £20 at the bookie at 31.0 to win outright and laid this at the exchange at 32.0. Stenson is now one shot off the lead and his back price on Betfair has shortened to 4.1.

    So now i think all I need to do is place a back bet on Betfair to match the liability of the lay, effectively cancelling it out? Also, presumably I could play with the figures a bit to either cancel out the £20 bookie bet, giving me a free shot at a big payout if Stenson wins, or working out even profit as things stand?

    Is this strategy legit as I don’t fancy potentially kissing goodbye to over £600?

    Thanks in advance.

    +0
    McGubbin
    2
    July 15, 2016 at 6:48 pm

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    xeno 0 July 15, 2016 at 7:42 pm

    what ehh are you sure, hope you havnt done this unless i misunderstand what your saying.

    +0
    Blue 1 July 15, 2016 at 9:38 pm

    In order to ‘cancel out’ a liability of £600 on the exchange, at 4.1 you would have to place an opposing back bet of circa £200. This would ensure you break-even (on the exchange) if the bet wins, but you would win £600 from the bookmaker – happy days 🙂 But if the bet loses you win your exchange lay bet of £20 but lose your £200 back bet. You also lose the £20 you staked with the bookmaker 🙁

    There are other scenario’s but I can’t be bothered to go through them all. Suffice to say, the idea that you can exploit the price change after the event like this is nonsense. You have already made your decision to lay off the bet on the exchange at 32.0. If you had deferred laying until the price came down to 4ish, then all well and good, you’d be quids in, but you can’t now magic up a guaranteed profit out of nothing. You can’t now ‘cancel out’ the exchange bet without either a guaranteed loss or a potential loss on the exchange side – the odds have moved in the wrong direction. Certainly it’s still possible you could make a profit, but not without risk. Effectively, your original qualifying bet is done and dusted, you should regard any further bets as entirely ‘new’.

    +0
    McGubbin 2 July 15, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    Thanks for your reply Blue. Having actually thought about this, I can see that it’s not a good idea unless i want to gamble on the win (which I don’t).

    +0
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