Bad EW Arbs
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I’m not certain this should be on the newbies forum as I know EW arbing is not for newbies. But albeit not a newbie to matched betting I have stuck to bet x get x and Acca offers so am a total newbie to EW arbing.
I do understand how the process works and which races are ‘bad ew races’ and Deathstars guide was awesome. I do still have a couple of questions though.
So, once a race has been identified with a heavy favourite and a few horses at long odds we are looking to what will become a good place arb. I’m guessing the win arb is not as vital as the money is in the places.
How do you know which horses are going to become good arbs? Can’t the odds potentially drift the other way? Or will the horses at longer odds already potentially be an arb on the place part of the bet as the exchange will have more realistic odds for the place? In which case do you lay the place and wait for the price on the win at the exchange to come down closer to the off or do you wait to lay the win and the place and prey to God that the odds drift in your favour?
I hope I’ve made sense guys!
Any help appreciated. I feel I am nearly there with my understanding, just not quite ready to jump in with both feet yet.
And it seemed today there were little opportunities!
+0December 1, 2017 at 4:29 pm
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New to matched betting?
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Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
well if you looked today you wouldn’t have seen anything, there were no bad races today at all. Actual proper bad E/W races are quite rare, but there is usually something to bet on. not today though. The best thing to do is keep an eye on the “Bad EW Races NO CHAT” forum in the matched betting section, the best races are usually flagged up daily (if there is any) and have a look at the odds throughout the day to see what to look for.
Basically you are right, mostly take a hit on the win part and then wait for the place to come in.
If its a true bad E/W race, the odds on the place drop like a stone in the run up to the off – although you have to be careful that the horse itself doesn’t drift in which case the place odds will still arb (probably) but not enough to cover the loss on the win.
use oddschecker to watch the odds, that’s a handy site that shows horses that are coming in as blue and horses drifting as pink so you can get an idea of whats going on with the betting.
With a true bad race the odds will be (almost) arbing on the place practically whenever you look so they are easy to spot, the knack then is getting an acceptable match on the win odds.
Once you know the mechanics of E/W arbing, its hard to give any further advice. Its very much a hands-on experience so the best way to learn is to actually do it. have a go with £2 each way bets to get a feel for it and see how the markets move. You might be stuck to your monitor for the first few times watching the odds!
And watch out for non-runners!
Good luck.
+0Thank you for the reply Deathstar. Confirms my thoughts which is really helpful, gives me the confidence to jump in and start with small stakes!
I’ve not used oddschecker as yet so I’ll give that a go to!
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trickybet dot com has a sliding scale on their advanced calculator so you can have a look at things like fully underlaying, underlaying to cover your QL on the win part, guarantee profit either way etc.
one thing I should have mentioned, I said do £2 each way because the minimum stake on betfair exchange is £2. I think smarkets is lower.
I usually lay the win off at smarkets because of the 2% comm, and lay the place at betfair because the odds seem to go lower closer to the race and the market seems more stable. I have found smarkets a bit flaky with 4-5 minutes to go. But you may have more luck, again it one of those things you need to physically look into yourself. (and of course, doing that means splitting your float between the two exchanges)
+0Cheers again Deathstar, been busy at work last couple days so not got much chance to play around.
Am off today though and have had an experiment with a couple of horses, see how they go! Only low stakes mind! I’ve put the bet on now and although there is an arb in the place straight away I am watching the markets and hoping they come down further closer to the race before I lay off, is that the right thing to do?
Would you not underlay the place part to? Ok, if it doesn’t place you may break even or even be a few pennies down, but isn’t underlaying the places where the bigger profits are when the place does come in?
Also, a lot of people have been saying they are doing this method on restricted accounts. A few of my restricted accounts are restricted to say £2 ew, isn’t that a lot of work for very little gain?
Sorry to bombard, I am trying to suss stuff out for myself but like to get the input of you more experienced guys.
+0Ahhh underlay for the restricted stake accounts to make it worth while and hope for a big arb, and possibly if you get a good arb on the accounts which arent stake restricted possibly just lay for guaranteed profit?
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Great question Deej, was wondering the same myself!
Deathstar, when should you lay the win part of the bet? Early in the morning or closer to the off?
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Ok, so first ‘bad ew race’ attempted.
Not so good ha.
So I done two horses – Sam and Havisham.
I put £5 ew on Sam@29
I waited until closer to the race and got an arb on the place of 6.6/4.5 which I underlaid giving me a potential profit of £10.12.
The odds on the win part didnt seem to be coming down close to the race so I bottled it and underlaid at 29/48 which lost me £2.18 in total.
Havisham I put £2 ew on @34
Got the place arb at 7.6/6 which gave me a potential profit of £2.95 by underlaying.
Again the lay for the win never come close with him so I ended up underlaying at 55 which gave me a loss of 0.85p in total.
So nothing to stress about as small stakes.
I think my mistake on Sam was certainly being impatient and having no balls as I carried on watching the market and could have laid the win off at 29/30 and the place at 6.6/3.95 which would have actually guaranteed me a small profit.
Though with Havisham, did I just pick the wrong horse? As the odds never seemed to even get close to the odds I took him at this morning?
Any guidance would be appreciated!
I see Chris won £71 on Whats Occuring, I’m guess with quite a big stake?
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sorry for the late reply, didn’t notice it til now. so you’ve had the fun of your first bad E/W race. it was quite a strange one actually, I was expecting flosboy sam to come in but never did. And i lost out big time on whats occuring.
I think the problem there was its Monday at a small race and the market never really got going.
You would normally expect one of those (Flosboy Sam, Havisham, Thames Knight or The Major) to have shortened but as i say, was a bit strange.As for laying off, lay the win as soon as the odds are pretty close. I always assume to take a hit on the win part, so its best not to make the bookie bet til the odds are acceptable (advice I should have followed on whats occuring today! I should have been happy with 7.5/8.2 but noooo, i had to be greedy and try to wait for 7.8! never happened) its personal choice really, but i will say i have taken 29/40 before now.
For the place part, lay that as close to the race as you dare! (unless you see the horse drifting) i usually leave it til the very last minute, but it can be scary, especially when sometimes the odds will bouncing out for a minute or so before settling back down a few minutes before the race. (thats on Betfair, smarket don’t seem to move so much, but are not as good) the odds move VERY quickly then though, so make sure you know how much you want to lay for a variety of odds beforehand so that you can quickly cancel and relay. or just underlay, as that will always be the same amount.
Again, you really need to get the feel of how the exchange moves and how quickly it moves. just remember to be happy with a smaller arb rather than kicking yourself that you didn’t wait longer, because you can regret it if it doesn’t pay off.
+0You’re advise is seriously priceless, so good to see experienced guys giving their time for constructive responses.
So in a nutshell, I guess I went along the right lines, just have to gain a little more experience in regards to the shifting markets before I start throwing bigger stakes about!
I like the idea of the underlay so long as the loss on the win isnt too big! Though if the arb is acceptable I will always just lay for smaller but guaranteed profit!
I will keep an eye out on the main post to look for opportunities and scan the races myself every morning before work and will hopefully be able to practice some more. Having recently hit the ACCA Insurance offers quite heavy of late and having a lot of success I am keen to broaden my MBing horizons!
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yeah you did good for your first go. shame about the race.
One thing you can do is work out how much you are losing on the win and slightly overlay the underlay as it were, so that you break even overall. I was doing this in the summer when its the flat season because the races are less predictable (not that jumps are much more).
so as a extremely simple example, say you’ve got a horse at 16/20 for a tenner E/W (2% comms).
You would lose £2 on the win part, as the place odds are 4, say the lay odds are 3 you can lay £12.24 which gives you £2 on loss (therefore break even) and £5.52 for the win, so £3.52 up if the horse places. the slider at the bottom of the advanced calc at trickybet is extremely useful for this.Hope that make sense.
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A good thing to look out for on true bad ew’s is the place odds on big outsiders. Sometimes there is a massive place arb that is so big that you can leave the win part as a jackpot punt.
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Also if 5/8/16 runners beware of non-runner. You can get screwed, especially if stalls.
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