Best odds guaranteed
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Is anyone else finding this a great source of income, I’ve tried to do a load of the 2 clear races with little success in hitting the free bet but to my surprise I’ve made a load of profit in best odds guarantee, this has been the same for the last few days, I’m considering just betting on tons of horse races at close odds and hoping to nail these?
Today (stake is not included in any of the calculations):
Be perfect, 1625, beverley – I won £160 at willhills, lost -£142.5 at exchange
Rinaria, 1700, beverley – I won £62.50 at wh, lost -£48 at the exchange
Bit of a quirke, 1550, beverley – I won £150 at wh, lost -£101 at the exchange
Don’t touch it, 1615, punchestown – I won £125 at betfred, lost -£113.95 at the exchange
In total I made £91.96!!! That’s with no free bets! I am worried that because I keep winning my accounts will be closed though…is there any profit in trying this long term?
+0April 27, 2017 at 8:43 pm
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Cheltenham last year, I seem to recall a great deal of my profits came from BOG. This was down to pure luck though, as I had no idea this was going to happen. I think there are some strategies on line that make use of BOG to generate profits but I have not looked in detail at them.
In theory the bookies should not gub you for profiting from BOG, but I who knows, its extremely difficult to know what they are looking for when they brandish the gubbing stick.
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Lay half.
You can back the horse and lay half now. And lay the rest at the off. If price goes down then you have an arb when you lay off the second half of the bet. If the price goes up then you get bog on the full stake and hope to still be in profit after you lay the second half at the price available at the off on the exchange which may be slightly higher.
Lay all.
Back and lay for a QL. Hope the price rises AND the horse wins. If both these things happen then you are in profit. You will collect a lot of qualifying losses before you hit a profit especially if you are backing longer odds horses. Also you might find the very process that you use to identify the horses may result in you picking horses that are more likely to shorten in price and hence less likely to get Bog.
Lay later.
So this way back the bookie price now and wait. The price shortens then you have an arb when you lay off. The price lenghtens then you can lay off against the new price to minimise any losses. This is by far the riskiest method. If the price drifts often the exchange price drifts out faster, so when you come to lay off the gap could be big. Also the price can suddenly come back in seconds before the off after you have layed at your assumed bog price and you end up with no bog at all.
I like the “Lay Later” approach in practice. There is not a lot of value in betting/laying in an exchange early on – just look at the liquidity and the gaps in the back and lay prices. They haven’t tightened up. And when I’ve tried the approach where you lay right away then I have found that the price almost always drops.
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Also can help is non runners if you lay straight away. If non runner is bigger than 14/1 then there is no reduction on the bookie side but the exchange will apply a reduction on your liability. Some bookies will also waive the rule 4, I think bet365 ignores the first 10p rule 4 deduction. Then the rest are inconsistent, I had two horses in the same race on betfair who both placed – betfair applied a rule 4 to one but not the other !!!!
There’s a few things that can work in your favour. I don’t know the best way to play them all out.
I think it works well with low value offers like fallers insurance or money back 2nd to sp or by a length or whatever. If you get a small QL on these offers early on in the day then there is always chance of bog or something else in your favour.
+0I don’t think there is long term profit in BOG alone, of there was there would be a long term bookies loss and they wouldn’t do it
I think shown by bog plus not lasting, but more and more jumping on the bog bandwagonIt’s certainly a bonus though, and can help very nicely with other offers/approaches. I’d say it’s the difference between some offers being worthwhile or not, eg how far you push doing the mb2nd to sp favourite
+0i quite like the look of the lay half method, i may give that a go when i’ve got a day off on the race day so that i can be on my pc to lay the other half (i much prefer doing the quick typing and changing between tabs on a pc than my mobile!)
i also tend to try and get as many bets done the day before as possible, i find i can get much lower ql without the stress of trying to lay near the off and this is where i’ve made nearly all my bog.
interestingly i’ve noticed ladbrokes do a bog plus where they don’t just match the sp they actually boost it!? at the minute my float won’t allow me to fully exploit this at the minute i tend to have about £1200 to play with each day (growing every day i make a profit but with all the other offers etc) maybe i’ll give that ladbrokes thing a try
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There is profit in this last time but you’ll just lose BOG and other perks on your bookie account before you become rich.
I MB mainly in shops these days and do a lot of the the above every day. You need to have a good exchange float for it and I lay down a good few hundred over the counter every day in the bookies too.
I like early mornings for it, but you can catch some nice ones before races too.
I’v been using the lay half method too, like it and find it works for me. Obviously I’m not doing this in the same bookies every day, I rotate between 5 different firms and 5/6 shops within most firms too. My “card was marked” with a few things in certain bookies before with horses so it’s a game in itself trying to go unnoticed. But it’s easy when staggering the shops and even the staff.
Defo money in it, needs luck too as with all the other potential offers out there. It’s just another form of diversification in the MB protfoilio though 🙂
+0I still don’t see how there can be profit in this alone. If you’re picking close matches it’s horses less likely to drift- so if you can profit on the horses less likely to drift AFTER commission then that means the bookies would be making huge losses each day of bog.
Dan talks about ‘catching some nice ones’ so doesn’t appear to be pure profit on the match/lay then bog kicking in. So with the half lay approach seems to be bog supplementing horses expected to shorten+0Get regular offer updates, tip and tricks, big offer alerts and more straight to your inbox.
I said I like mornings for mine Betman, but meant you could get on a good one an hour or two before the race.
With the half lay method you’re not losing any morning when trying one. When they come in then you can make a nice little side pot for the day.
I’m in the bookies every day anyone for other bets so this is just done almost as mug punting at the counter for me but it raises the overall income of the day.
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Well over the year or so I’ve made a lot of money accidentally on BOG by just doing various offers. So I see the potential.
But the problem as betman was getting at is, 1. The horses are unlikely to drift if your picking the ones that are already priced quite high, so as to make the back odds close to the lay odds. 2. If the odds do drift then the horse would seem less and less likely to win.
The only way you make money from BOG is if the horse drifts (unlikely as your picking horses already seemingly over priced by bookie) AND then wins the race (double unlikely as while he drifts the chances of winning diminish).
The way to take advantage of it in my opinion is to use the exchange price as a gauge to detect horses that are over priced by the bookie. Back at the generous odds, then when the odds come in, lay off for profit. Where the BOG comes in is to minimise losses if the price does drift.
It’s kind of like trading (back high, lay low) with a safety net.
In practice I see the same. I had backed and layed horses the night before for small QL and I didn’t see much profit because more often than not the horse would go off at a shorter price. So I was just collecting qualifying losses and once in a while a horse would drift, and then even rarer he would win. I found it wasn’t worth it.
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Just for example these guys I identified last night or early this morning for close back lay odds. You can see most shortened. You would have made a big deal on a couple by backing first and laying later.
Physicist I backed at 9.0, sp was 4.5
Vyta du Roc 11.0 sp was 7.0
Zorovan 11.0 sp was 11.0
Third Intention 21.0 sp was 21.0
Traffic Fluide 3.25 sp was 2.875
White Arm 6.0 sp was 6.5
Present Man 13.0 sp was 13.0+0yeah, there is something that inherently worries me about unmatched bets i’ve been stung a few times where i’ve had to have huge ql because nearer the race it didn’t get matched! laying half seems alright though and quite a good strategy. i need to have a free day to practice it, i wouldn’t want to try it out and about on my phone.
most of mine have been happy coincidences, when i’ve been going for other offers etc, or placing mug bets. i can’t see anyway this would work nearer the off, a lot of the times i’ve benefited from it is when horses have dropped out in the morning, i try and do a lot of my betting the night before, i know this potentially makes me an easy target to get gubbed but i don’t have the free time to devote to it on race days, i place a load of mug bets as well, seems to be working ok so far….except my william hill account is hanging by a thread i think!
+0Ladbrokes are doing a best odds guaranteed plus offer, where they boost the odds even further. For example, back a horse at 3/1 and if it wins at an SP of 7/2 we will pay out at 4/1, up to a maximum stake of £/€200.
Could that not be leveraged in some way?
+0Yes I think so, that’s why I mentioned that as 2 out of 3 withdrew it (365 and betway).
You would need to stick to horses where there wouldn’t be huge gaps between bookie and exchange- ie nothing over probably 12-1, not bad each way races etc.
The above approaches mentioned would work, but I’d back then leave laying. Hope price shortens then lay nearer the off for an arb. If price drifts you need to lay just before the off, but as you say the bigger price from bog plus should allow you to lay for an arb still.I posted this when 365 did it as a way to tackle their 4-1 offer. Replies said it was a bad idea, but eventually did it a few times to good affect where I had an arb then any 4-1 winner was a bonus. They withdrew soon after I had the confidence to approach that way
+0Another risk free option is lay all at the time of backing, just before the off check the bookies price-if it’s gone up re-calculate your bet using the new odds and then lay the extra. I use this method on FB’s and make a few quid on it.
+0My personal view is you’re giving up value doing that. You’d need a close match to lay straight away, which is likely to shorten in price but you can’t benefit from the arb that may make
Plus is it any more risk free than laying later with BOG plus? The risk you are eliminating is more around knowing what you are doing or reliable access to an exchange at the needed moment+0
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