Bet 3 times and get free bet (stake not returned)
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Hi all,
Was hoping to find someone a lot smarter than me to work out the profitability of a certain offer.
Rules state you need to place 3 bets at odds of 1.5 or greater (cannot be singles) and you will receive a free bet of the same value of your lowest bet.
So for example lets say we made 3 bets;
Bet 1 – £100 double @ 2.00
Bet 2 – £100 double @ 2.00
Bet 3 – £100 double @ 2.00
Free bet – £100 double @2.00
Since the probability of each of these bets is 50% you’d expect to win say half over the long term. So say after 100 bets you’d have had 75 real bets and gained 25 free bets. Therefore;
Won say 37 bets – £3700
Lost say 38 bets – £3800
So currently £100 down. But then the free bets kick (25 in total) in say say we won just under half of those (12) so have an additional £1200.So overall profit of £1100? Doesn’t seem right? Can anyone advise please.
I understand variance is a huge factor but have tried to keep a simple as possible for this example.
Thanks for reading.
