Bet365 – £125 Grand National Refund E/w Bets!
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Hi All,
The Bet365 offer has landed! Simply you cannot afford to miss this offer!
In preparation, knowing this was likely to drop, I’ve built us an “extra place” calculator that will do all the crazy maths for you to save you having to do it!
It can be found here: https://www.antodev.com/extraplace
Lets hit 5th place again guys!
Cheers
Anto+0April 7, 2016 at 7:17 am
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This is what I have :
£125 (250 total) E/W Goonyella @ 21
Lay to win : £114.07 @ 22.4215 = £2443.63 Liability
Lay to place : £98.93 @ 7.4 = £633.30 Liability
Refunded £87.86 Reduction Factor AppliedThe refund has thrown me off.
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Managed a max stake of £25
At least i make £6 and a chance at £50 for 5th
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Ryan using the Win market as an example. If it won my returns at the bookie is £950. The lay also returned £950. After the reduction the return dropped – The liability went down by £25, but liability + return then equalled £925 not £950.
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Before this reduction if my horse won it was +2000 – £2020.84. Now if my horse wins its +2000 – £1965..I don’t see the problem here? unless im missing something.
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Many Clouds now down to 9.0 so hopefully that means the lay will now be good for me and anyone else who took 10.0
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If it placed I was +500 – £531.89. Now its +500 – £516..once again, better?
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Yes it’s no problem Ryan and griffin. Your liability is reduced. Reduced. It’s a good thing. Do nothing don’t lay any more. Just do a little happy dance.
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It could be me, but yes if it wins youd be quids in, if it didnt you wouldnt get as much back.
Anyway with my little adjustments Im in exactly the same place as I was before with no extra liability.My problem now is that the place markets on smarkets are AWFUL.
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Grinning…my stakes haven’t been reduced just my liability…i’m going to get exactly the same back? you laying more won’t help the overall profit figure.
Thanks for clearing it up FOG! Still probably rather him lose than win an extra £55 if he wins…the pain of my whole smarkets clearing out into bet365 would not be nice.
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Guys, Rule 4 doesnt apply if the withdrawn horse/s is 14/1 or above. Smarkets have their own Rule 4 “rules” it seems as they apply small percentage reductions (2% for example) whereas Rule 4 never goes below a 5% reduction.
So you have it right, if your horse does win your liability is less but also note that your stake is lower too therefore your return also lower. For example, last night i layed Arpege D’alene for the 1.45 race and my stake was £25.05. A horse has been withdrawn this morning and my stake (return minus commission) is now £23.94.
You’ll have to manually calculate whether it has a positive or negative effect on your potential returns.
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Grinning, our lay STAKES havent been reduced only the odds and therefore the liability…. if our horse doesn’t win we still get the same amount back mate. I’m pretty sure anyway and this is what Ryan and FoG seem to be saying too
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Odd….my lay stakes are exactly the same? or maybe the few pence different i.e last night lay £106.36 Shutthefrontdoor now its showing as £106.29 might have just been what I actually put in though…hardly worth worrying about?
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That’s how I read it drogs but I usually bow to Chris with regards rule 4 scenarios or anything on horse odds.
I wouldn’t worry about it at all either way. As Ryan said at the start these things balance out. And I think by bet365 not applying rule 4 then you benefit.
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Thats odd, maybe the odds were so long on the withdrawn horse that they haven’t bothered or have some rule about not applying deductions if the liability is large like on these.
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