Bet365 2up
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Hi, I just wondered how everyone was getting on with the Bet365 2up offer.
I’ve done it a few times now and I’m frequently having my team go two goals ahead. However, when they do, the back odds are then so small that it’s not been worth cashing out then and I’ve left it for the other team to pull back first. I’ve not had this 2nd part happen for me yet after several attempts.
I’m wondering how other people on the forum are doing with this, what their success rate is, how they find the matches, and just the general experience of this offer.
I’ve read elsewhere that this can be a good money maker, and as I mostly do football offers, I’d like to find out how true that is and hopefully get the right method down for starting to make a profit from this.
Any help or feedback would be greatly appreciated 🙂
+0August 27, 2017 at 10:58 am
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unless the inplay markets are fundamentally wrong you won’t gain any advantage long term by laying in play
the problem is variance can be a bitch. 34 matches is nothing even for a low variance event, 2 up is going to be pretty high variance
I’ve said before laying depends on each person’s perspective, most of our laying depletes long term value but I still lay a lot
+0Anyone know if you can back the 2 teams in the same match with this offer? Can’t see anywhere in the T&C’s that say you can`t.
+0You could but it would look pretty suspect….why would a gambler (what they want) bet against themselves…unless they were trying to ‘abuse’ the bonus…
Why not do one with Paddy’s and one with Bet365 if possible for you…
🙂
+0Gubbed at Bet365 the other month.
This offer was raking in the cash for me personally & now I’m scratching around for offers to do as I’m gubbed pretty much everywhere.
+0What do people go for on this? It had a very low hit rate but pays out BIG. Do you pick certain teams big favourites or big outsiders?
Or just any team you can get a close match on? And how close does the match have to be pretty much 100%?+0I almost always went for the outsider. As you say payouts can be big. E.G. Japan in the World Cup or Newcastle vs Man United the other week.
I went with odds >2 and jumped on any close matches.
+0Wafty,
At what point do you cash out? At 2-0 or do you wait for a comeback goal/ Or do you just let it run for the big booms?
+0My “usual” strategy is 50% at 2-0, 25% at 2-1 and 25% at 2-2.
Took 100% on Newcastle vs Man United at 0-2 the other week.
Oops!
+0Hoffenheim Vs Shakhtar tonight had a nice payout, Shakhtar went into an early lead 2-0 with pre-match odds of 4.5, back to 2-2 before half time with Shakhtar at 4.60.
Not the first time a Hoffenheim game has proved lucrative 😉
+0Dan42 (or anyone else), please could you walk me through the process of how you made profit from the Hoffenheim game? I’ve just seen the offer and for some reason I’m struggling to get my head around it.
Back and lay before the game, you get your b365 pay out at 2-0, then how/when do you make your profit?
+0I simply just back the winner again on the exchange, so tonight, I backed Shakhtar at odds of 4.5 and layed them at 5, the odds were pretty far apart because I suspect Paddy and bet 365 expected this kind of game, the last game between them was end to end.
Anyway,
When Shakhtar went 2-0 ahead I got paid out from the 2up, for simplicity let’s say I got £100, so at half time, with the score 2-2, and £100 in the bank, I backed Shakhtar again at odds 4.6, with £20, meaning if they lost, I get £80 because I get the £100 from the original lay bet, minus my £20 bet, and if they go on and win, I win my half time bet and get £92 return, (£72 profit)
So instead or risking the £100 I guaranteed myself a large chunk of it, 70-80%
This works well on the outsiders because even with the score at 2-1, Shakhtar were 2.32 to win, so you could have put £45 or so on them and guaranteed about £50-£55 win or lose.
So it depends how much risk you want to take, some people cash in/trade out their bet on the exchange, I don’t do that, I’ve never tried it actually, I just back the winning team to win when they go 2up, sometimes I’ll use a different bookie for a mug bet.
There’s nothing that looks better to a bookie than whacking £50 on a team randomly in play, gets you some great reload offers 😉
+0Great, thanks so much for the tips! Explained everything really clearly.
So you’re first backing the original team for the second time only if they go 2-0 up and then concede to go 2-1 or even 2-2?
E.g. tonight let’s say we back Inter, 50 on at 5.25, laid at 5.5. They go 2-0 up and we are paid out 262.50.
We wait until Spurs (hopefully) pull one back and we are able to back Inter again at 2.3 – we stick another 50 on Inter. If Inter win the game, we win the extra bet (profit of 65) and if they lose, we win 262.50 (give or take – original bet plus lay).
Am I getting this right?
+0You’re right, but if they lose you’ll win £262.50 minus whatever you put on Inter to win with the score at 2-1 and odds 2.3, so you’d get £65 profit if Inter won the game, and £197.50 profit if they went on to lose it, (£262.50 minus the £65 bet for inter)
In that situation I’d try and split it by putting a bit more on Inter at 2-1 if the odds were 2.3, so try and make it 50/50 regardless of the result.
But yes you get the main idea, it’s about extracting as much value as you can from the offer.
In regards to your first question, it depends on the odds available, if a team goes 2-0 ahead, especially as an outsider then we don’t always need to wait for the score to hit 2-1, as we can get odds of around 1.50-1.75 or so if the 2-0 scoreline happens early enough you can do it at 2-0.
I generally only wait til 2-1 of the odds are under 1.30.
+0For more information on the Bet365 and Paddy Power 2UP offers, please see my brand new early payout offers guide. I’ve added an early payout calculator too!
Guide > https://matchedbettingblog.com/bet365-early-payout-2up-offer/
Calculator > https://matchedbettingblog.com/early-payout-calculator/+1Ive never given the 2up offer much of a look in myself. My gut feeling was that the profits made from the rare occasions of the dream scenerio of a team letting a 2 goal lead slip coming in would to too rare off an occurance to balance the qualifing losses one would incur whilst waiting for ‘the big ones’
As I have some spare time atm! I thought id check into the probilities/potential win’/losses of some basic data- to see if theres more potential to it than I thought. So I had a scan of this years Premier League results so far to see how often a team goes 2 goals ahead and then fails to win the game, thus triggering the double bubble pay out. Decided it was prob wise to avoid short price favourite games and went with every prem game where the the fav was around 10/11 (1.90) or higher. I found 137 games fitting this criteria- in my study I would have backed both teams to win in these reasonably closely matched games. So a total of 274 attempts to scope the 2 up offer. Of these only 6 bets managed to do the buisness of triggering the 2 up bonus- in these games…
Watford v Everton 2-3
West Ham v Brighton 3-3
Soton v Wolves 2-3
Man Utd v Sheff Utd 3-3
Watford v Aresnal 2-2
Aresnal v Spurs 2-2Now im not gonna delve so deep as to have looked for the avaiable odds and lay prices for all those 137 games! would prob need another 3 months of lockdown for that! So im gonna to break all these games down into completely even contests where all 3 outcomes- Win/Lose/Draw had equal 33.3% chances and the dream scenerio of fair odds were available of 2/1 on all outcomes. This would give you 137 games x 3 bets = 411 bets. Where with no special offers coming in one would simply break even. But with this special offer coming in 6 times in this breif study- you would have triggered a 6 double payouts. I’ll use $100 for the stakes on every outcome.
411 X $100 stakes = $41.000 staked
Aside from all the money backs-you would have triggered 6 extra payouts of $300- giving one a tidy enough overall profit of $1800.
$41,000 to win $1800- around a 4.5% profit. Not too bad for zero risk. But then comes the big problem..very few of those ‘bets’ at the bookies would have been at true odds, or even within the required 4.5 % of their true odds. Perhaps a small sample may have been avaiable under the 4.5% range, but not many- on average most of PP and 365 odds would have in fact been more than 4.5% worse than the true odds- often closer to 10% off.In conclusion to this simplistic study I will continue to avoid them in general- as based on these findings, theres is very little scope for profit. Of course if one sees a price bang on the exchange lay price, or within 1/2%- then yeah bash on it. But as I’ve always thought (would like to be proved wrong- perhaps other leauges/seasons produce far better returns?) theres not much in it, and time spent scanning for any close match/zero loss qualifiers are few and far beetween- and the pay offs are too rare. My findings for me would have needed to show a base profit close to 10% to think it was an avenue worth more time/investigation.
The overall equation needs to be what are the likely qualifying losses and how often does the offer come in/for how much and do these factors lead to a worthwhile profit/if any.
Would like to hear from anyone who has a better/more profitable way of exploting this offer than my own one here. Perhaps the prem is a league to avoid and other higher scoring/more random leagues are more worthy?
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