Bet365 2up

  • Hi, I just wondered how everyone was getting on with the Bet365 2up offer.

    I’ve done it a few times now and I’m frequently having my team go two goals ahead. However, when they do, the back odds are then so small that it’s not been worth cashing out then and I’ve left it for the other team to pull back first. I’ve not had this 2nd part happen for me yet after several attempts.

    I’m wondering how other people on the forum are doing with this, what their success rate is, how they find the matches, and just the general experience of this offer.

    I’ve read elsewhere that this can be a good money maker, and as I mostly do football offers, I’d like to find out how true that is and hopefully get the right method down for starting to make a profit from this.

    Any help or feedback would be greatly appreciated 🙂

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    scabbadab 253

    I thought I’d should at least delve a little bit deeper into this offer to see if the discouraging results I saw from my look at this premier league results could be better in another league with better potential results, and more favourable basic creteria for making selections.

    So I thought id look at a higher scoring league- The Bundersleague (known to be the highest for total goals scored amoungst the high profile euro leauges) and a different criteria for selections. I thought backing in games where the away team was the favourite would more likely produce games with more swings and possibly more goals thus increasing chances of hitting the ‘2UP’

    A glance through the odds of this seasons games in the Bundersleaugue on Odds Portal- I spotted 87 games where the away team started as the favourite. Of these 87 games only 2 games managed to hit the offers requirements. Both of those times it was the Home team who let a 2 goal lead slip. Zero returns if betting on the away favourite. I figured it would prob be more likely an unfancied home team would get a flying start before being reeled in by the superior team than visa versa.

    So lets say these were the games/criteria one focused on- High scoring leaugue and Home team outsiders….
    Use $100 for stakes again, and this time will imagine the dream scenerio was the price at bookies was same on the exchanges!!

    87 x $100 = $8700 staked
    85 games broke even- offer didnt come in- lay covered the bookies. $8500 returned
    2 games hit the bonus! which were…

    Union Berlin (2.87) v Wolfsberg 2-2- profit $187 + 100
    Augsberg (5.40) v Dortmund 3-5 – profit $440 + 100

    Total Profit $827

    Would need to factor in all the times you had to pay commisions of 2% ($2 on betfair) for the many games where the home team didnt win. At a fair guess I’d say 50 of those 87 games. So 50 x $2 = $100 in betfair commisions. leaving a final hyperthetical profit of..

    Total Profit from $8700 staked = $727 -around 8% (better than the previous prem example)

    How many of those games would have had less than a 8% margin with B365/PP and the ‘true’ odds on the exchange. Not too many I would say from expeience. Perhaps there would have been some here n there bang on- or within 4-5% . Based on these findings- any time you backed and laid on the exchanges on a price more than 8% in difference you would have actually had a negative expectation ‘bet’ on your hands. So for this small sample of games- with these favourable set of criterias- Your $100 stakes would have had an expectation of beetween $2-$8 profit in the best case scenerios. If one had blindly decided to back all away favourites in this example one would have zero bonuses and considerable losses incurred from lay price discrepencies and the commisions payed out. Suffice to say this offer dosnt seem to come in as often as one might think- so studying data, and only getting on with razor tight lays is critical to getting favourable expectations with your selections.

    A 2/1 Home team shot with 365/PP would need to be 3.1 on the exchange to leave one with a 3% profit expectation based on these findings- So only games with very tight prices/lays must be applied.

    Conclusion

    If you have the time on hands to scan through various avaiable leagues to find ideal odds with good criterias, then perhaps you could chisel some small favourable situations with some small profits that could add up over the course of the season- and also enjoy some cheap buzzes along the way. But if you want to avoid actually putting your money down on something with negative expectations- then be sure to do some historical research of the type of the leagues/match ups your are ‘betting’ on to see if the % likelehood of your ‘bet’ hitting the bonus outweighs the negative price you are laying on the exchange.

    I for one have too many other avenues to focus on for MB profits to pay much atention to this offer, and will put it to bed. If a spot -through a quick 5-10 minute scan on a football day- a few games with simalar criteria to this data ive looked at here, that are laying very close to the 365/PP price- then I will prob have a dabble or two. Would certainly be interested though If anyone wishes to share better anaylisis of this offer, and ways to produce better expectations. I wouldnt be too interested in the inplay laying options- for I believe if your original bet didnt have good expectations- than by adding more laying options to it – would for me simply be adding problems/commisons/negative lay prices to the original low value ‘bet’ .

    +1
    metalmick 5

    do you not find it difficult to get 98% matches unless we drop down to the Turkish 4th Division. i find the chances of getting a decent match in the top divisions is really difficult – Paddy prices are shocking. any tips??

    +0
    waftycranker 5

    @metalmick

    PP prices are bad compared to other bookies.

    If you have the luxury of 0% commission at an Exchange, then dutching may help lower QL’s.

    +0
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