Beware 8 runner races
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Long term, it SHOULD IN THEORY be ok to ew arb in 8 runner races. Overall, non runners are declared early enough to make the risk slight against long term profits…
…HOWEVER…the number of extremely late non runners in 8 runner races is completely out of proportion to an average race when there is a decent ew arb available.
I have observed this for many weeks, there is no way it is coincidence and i would recommend leaving these races out.
Bookmakers have a lot of connections and if there is a big ew arb, they easily have enough influence to get a trainer/jockey to make a horse not run at the last minute, thus reducing the place terms from 3 to 2.
Take it or leave it, but the rate of late non runners in these races is off the charts and it is much better sticking to races where a late non runner would not affect the place terms.
+0March 6, 2017 at 6:30 pm
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Did you get stung in the 1740 at Wolverhampton today?
Lost about 100 as Bosphorus Prince came in 3rd. Thank god Swallow Dancer didn’t place as that would have put me down a fortune.
Will be steering clear of 8 runner races, especially flats where the stalls cause problems.
Not sure I buy the conspiracy theory, I didn’t see what happened but I don’t think you can make a horse plant it’s feet or rear up, but I’m no horseman.
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Same here monkey tennis, £90 down as it came third. Think 8 runner races starting in stalls are risky, others not so much
+0I find the 8 runner races that have stalls are a lot more risky than races off a standing start. In the case of the 5:40 I was out but would have done it. Another couple earlier had 8 runners and were very marginal if an 8 runner race is marginal it’s better not to touch it. If however you get arbs of 2/1.8 on the place and the win is tight then it’s worth taking it on. Your unlucky if you hit a withdrawal and doubly unlucky if your horse comes 3rd.
Another danger for the summer is 16 runner races where there are stalls. Got double the horses and if one doesn’t go you go to 1/4 for 3 from 1/4 to 4. This is worse than a 1/5 for 3 to a 1/4 for 2 as often the rule 4 can work in our favour and the 1/5 to a 1/4.
+0It isn’t a ‘conspiracy theory’, the number of late withdrawals in 16 and 8 runner races is much higher than other races and the reason is obvious.
Makes me laugh when people say conspiracy theory, humanity needs to move beyond that stupid label and open its eyes at the blatant corruption all around us, expressing itself whenever large sums of money is involved.
You could bet 50 races straight half hour before the off and not see a non runner.
If an ew arb is there in an 8 runner race, the non runner comes around 1/5 which is a ridiculously high % of the time.
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I had the 2nd fav so 540 worked out well
+0Using the label for expediency, but in truth that’s what it is, a theory that bookies and trainers are conspiring with each other.
I’m not saying it doesn’t happen, but how do you *make* a horse not want to go in, when there’s a team of loaders etc? As that’s what seemed to happen this evening.
+0I got done over twice in a week near Xmas so went through he stats of how many flat races had a withdrawal and it came out around 9 percent only looked at 60 or so races. I don’t think there is a conspiracy if you look at the stewards reports any horse that doesn’t go in has to go on some sort of training before being able to race again.
+0At what point did any liquidity appear for that?
I looked a bit before 5 and the one that came 3rd was 20/80. Amite waltz looked most likely one to yield an arb but was 8/20.
Probably a good job I left home as it was though having read that+0
Yep got stung on the 5.40 Wolves today too. Had £20 ew on Bosphorus Prince and had no idea there was a late withdrawal so was celebrating what I thought was a £55 win only to see that under my settled bets at William Hill the place terms had changed to 2. Was £70 down but luckily had a great day on High 5 offer so still up a good £60.
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No conspiracy at all but it seems really harsh to have place terms reduced to 2 when a horse is withdrawn so close to the off.
+0http://www.britishhorseracing.com/race-info/stewards-reports/
Race 8 – 5:40pm
THE BETWAY MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5)
The Starter reported that RUNNING SQUAW, trained by Pam Ford, refused to enter the stalls and was withdrawn at 17.42. The trainer’s attention was drawn to the restriction incurred under Rule (B)44 and informed that the mare could not run until the day after passing a stalls test.This is what I meant in my earlier post if anybody is interested.
+0I wasnt actually referring to the 5:40 race, it was just a general observation i was pointing out given i record my bets.
Im not referring to overall non runners, but last minute withdrawals which are very rare.
Yet when an ew arb is available in an 8 runner race, the chances of a late non runner increase dramatically, ive seen it day in day out for weeks.
Coincidence theorist i am not 🙂
As beesty touched on, i will still do them if the odds are short, it can actually work in your favour as the place terms go to 1/4 but i wont be playing any bigger odds in these races given the rate of late non runners.
+0At what point did any liquidity appear for anything outside the top 2 in the 5.40 yday??????
Last minute withdrawals aren’t that rare if a horse refuses to enter the stalls. From the original thread the words ‘any fun at the stalls’ are engraved in my mind for each way arbing as a risk for 1 or even 2 non runners
+0I got 41.0/60.0 on Swallow Dancer about 15 mins before the off. I think the eventual 3rd traded around mid 30s/40s too at a similar time.
+0Thanks mbpunter.
Probably should be in the Q&A post, but u can still make money on odds that far apart? I’ve not even been doing the sums when the numbers are that far out, and some of the text book obvious ‘bad each way’ races didn’t seem to work.
Done a few of the less obvious races when time permits+0
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