Beware 8 runner races

Long term, it SHOULD IN THEORY be ok to ew arb in 8 runner races. Overall, non runners are declared early enough to make the risk slight against long term profits…

…HOWEVER…the number of extremely late non runners in 8 runner races is completely out of proportion to an average race when there is a decent ew arb available.

I have observed this for many weeks, there is no way it is coincidence and i would recommend leaving these races out.

Bookmakers have a lot of connections and if there is a big ew arb, they easily have enough influence to get a trainer/jockey to make a horse not run at the last minute, thus reducing the place terms from 3 to 2.

Take it or leave it, but the rate of late non runners in these races is off the charts and it is much better sticking to races where a late non runner would not affect the place terms.

+0

Johnbo
14

March 6, 2017 at 6:30 pm

New to matched betting?

My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

Learn Matched Betting

Chris 18 March 7, 2017 at 10:06 am

I got 34/36 on Prince at around 5.30 and 7.6/4.2 on the place. The fact I did it so late and still got stung by a non runner made it all the more annoying as I picked it out as a high risk race early on in the day and decided to leave it alone. Close matched odds on outsiders are very rare so close to the off which is why temptation got the better of me.

Anyway, harsh lesson learned. Don’t bother with 8 runner races on the flat, the risk of a late withdrawal is even higher because of horses needing to enter stalls before the off. I should have known that, amateur hour there.

+0

MbPunter 17 March 7, 2017 at 10:23 am

Yeah Betman, if the place arb is good enough the win loss isn’t much of an issue. The place was 9.0/3.5 in this example.
Roughly the same return as 41.0/40.0, 9.0/4.0 for example which people would be falling over themselves to get on.

In the end despite not hitting the 3rd i reduced my place liability after the non runner so made pennies.

+0

betman 40 March 7, 2017 at 7:33 pm

Thanks both
That’s crazy on the place mbpunter, can pay for the win loss itself regardless of if u lay it!

I got the principle and did some low level stakes ages ago. Starting to push into it a little more now. Like most things in this game it seems there’s more value than u first think when u scratch below the surface in the right areas

+0

Johnbo 14 March 8, 2017 at 4:49 pm

Big ew arbs in the last at catterick, 8 runners with just over 30 minutes to the off..im on 3 horses…

Late non runner should be rare, let’s see…;)

+0

MonkeyTennis 1 March 22, 2017 at 5:52 pm

Done over again at wawrick in the 2.50. Non runner at 2.14. Backed the horse thst came third, laid on the each way tab, so difficult to back out of as the odds had tumbled from 18 to 9.

Perhaps johnbo’s right after all….

+0