Bwin €100,000 Champions League Challenge

• Bwin are currently running a very special offer at the minute – “Predict the exact minute and second of the first goal and win £100,000”

  If we were to consider every possible minute and second as a ‘chance’, then the total amount of chances would be 1/8280 given that there is a maximum of 120 minutes standard play including 30 minutes extra time and also given an upper bound of 6 minutes injury time between each half. Predicting 8280 is very time consuming and ineffective.

  Bwin allow 100 choices per day and given the final is Saturday, this gives us 400 chances per person. A £10 stake earns 1 chance, we can use matched betting to reduce this to 5%, £0.50 per choice and therefore £50 for 100 chances. So 400 chances would be 4 x £50 = £200

  If we had 8 people, we could earn 3200 choices for the price of £1600. There are approximately 3000 choices in the first half so this covers this.

  This means that we could cover the first half of a goal being scored for £1600 with the potential for winnings of £100,000.

  We would then have two options on the exchange –

  1) We can use a dutching method for the time of the first goal on Betfair Exchange (although this doesn’t cover extra time… but does include no goal presumably covering only the first 90 minutes). Your stake would be (approximately) doubled if the exchange dutch bet won and would obviously have to return higher than the cost of covering a goal in the first half.

  2) If we had £50,000 laying around, back no goal first half at around 2/1, therefore also doubling our stake.

  This is much more a theoretical idea than a practical one, but maybe in the future something similar will present itself.

  Lewis

  +1

  

  ilewis136

  3

  May 30, 2017 at 10:04 pm