Cheltenham Non runner Insurance
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Any value in this?
Thistlecrack out of Gold Cup today, bound to be others in the lead up.
I was thiknking about backing a few doubtfull runnners hoping to lay at shorter odds if they make it to the race.
+0February 21, 2017 at 1:24 pm
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Not when ya get refunded from bookie and exchange?… break even
+0The idea I am thinking about is to bet at the bookie and wait till the day of the race to lay.
Cue Card was available at 9-1 yesterday today it is 4-1.
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Ah right, I just wasn’t sure where the Non runner insurance comes in?… basically you’re just hoping to get a decent arb on the price coming in if there’s a non runner declared?… Obviously avoiding the rule 4 due to antepost… there’s scope but not something at go in heavy with
+0Nearly all horses will be longer Antepost than on the day of the race.
Some races still have 40-50 declared runners.
+0And the overround will be huge as they know not all will run. It’s not really the antipost value as such at this stage. Especially your ‘doubtful runners’, they’ll be priced as if they run.
Yes some will shorten, but others will drift.
Your cue card example is a result of thistlecrack, so if you somehow pick a horse where a short priced rival unexpectedly pulls out you’ll benefit from no rule 4.I’m not 100% the exchange is no runner no bet so there if you find any liquidity there may be value there if a horse doesn’t run
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There was a thread on this last year.
It’s ante post. You won’t get your stake back from the exchange. If he doesn’t run you get refund from bookie and win the exchange bet so it is win win.
The approach advised I think I remember right when I say was to find close back and lay and hope the horse doesn’t run.
Last year I don’t think there was anything really close enough to make it worth while.
+0If there was no value in this offer no one would ever bet Ante Post.
The element of risk of a horse not running is normally in the price (which is why the further from a race the longer the price is).
I’ll pick a few and let you know how I get on.
+0Not really sure why u posted a question if weren’t intending to listen to the answers!
+0I would have listened to answers if I thought the people replying understood an ante-post market.
+0You mean understood it the way you want to understand it?
Crack on and back all the horses for your refunds/trading gains+0Why are all bookies not giving Non-Runner insurance?
+0This isn’t another question you’ll ignore the answer is it?!
Because they don’t have to, it’s not industry standard
But if you’re comparing look at the odds and overround, the bookies not offering it offer generally offer better odds on the horses that are a bit further out price wise.+0It was a rhetorical question.
First race I look at is Champion Hurdle, Yanworth is top price with Skybet at 5.0/ 5.1. Effectively giving 25-1 on a 90p QL on Yanworth running in the Chapmpion Hurdle.
If you were correct, Sky and Hills (and others who are offering NRNB) would not be top price on any horse, which they are for a number of horses.
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one thing to be careful with if you are doing this is make sure that your bet doesn’t count as the first bet and therefore exclude you from any MBS, or by the same token, the bet that you do place DOES qualify as many offers are only after final declarations or at a specified time on the day of the race.
if you’re interested in that kind of thing of course… 🙂+0So Yanworth, everyone knows it’s aimed at the champion hurdle and it’s going to run in that barring a freak injury. U need to drop to 5.3 to get any lay money on and 5/5.3 on a injury at this stage is not value
Yanworth is also a good example of your ‘everything shortens close to the race’ as it drifted after a less than convincing win satDrop down to horses with multiple entries such as vroom vroom mag (11/21) and limini (11/20) and the exchanges realise the risk of them not running
Drop down to the horses I said to look at rather than your convenient ‘first I look at’ match and u get u gaps where horses probably won’t run such as tombstone 21 with a standard bookie or 9 non runner no bet, or moon racer 34 with a standard or 17 with the nrnb.
It does give u the chance to get on certain horses that may shorten with the insurance of if they don’t run, so is value in that respect. But to talk of blindly backing horses as they’ll all come in or be refunded doesn’t seem to have much substance. And asking a question then dismissing answers as u r just sounds a bit like a dick
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