Could We Emulate Extra Place Races with Betfairs Extra Place Options

• I’ve had recent success with extra place races.

  I’ve been wondering could be emulate them with the extra place options on Betfair. For example:

  There was a race tonight where the:
  -bet odds of a horse finishing top 3 was 1.63
  -lay odds of the same horse finishing top 2 was 2.22

  For the race to be profitable the horse must finish in position 3, any other position is a loss pretty much.

  If betting £10 the ideal bets and lays would be:
  -bet £10 on 1.63
  -lay £7.41 on 2.22

  From this arrangement:
  -position 3 would get me £13.56
  -any position other than 3 would get me -£2.74

  These two numbers divide into each other 4.95 times. That means the arrangement would have to win at least once every five races to break even.

  Lets see what the odds of a successful outcome are according to the official odds:
  -for the bet its simple, 1.63 is the odds of a favourable outcome
  -for the lay I think its the reciprical of the lay odds of 2.22 (which is 1.45 approx.)

  The odds of both outcomes is them multiplied so:
  1.63*1.45=2.36

  So I should expect to have a favourable result every 2.36 races.

  I’m pretty sure this whole theory is incorrect. Though I cant figure out how and its been bugging me. Anyone know where I’ve done my math wrong?

  +0

  

  hydro

  0

  August 17, 2016 at 10:53 pm