Darts offers – annoyingly not in sync with Betfair!

  • I was just looking for something to have a go on in the upcoming Van Gerwen match and noticed the following:

    Sky Bet – boosted odds on MVG to whitewash the other fella (i.e. 9 – 0 in legs)
    Betfair’s total legs market is set at under/over 10.5, meaning that a 9 – 1 leg outcome would lose you both bets 🙁

    Likewise, William Hill are offering boosted odds of 4.0 that MVG’s 3 dart average will be over 104.5, whereas the corresponding Betfair market sets the line at 103.5, again leaving us with a (slim) chance of losing both bets (not that is seems to be stopping several folk who are ploughing in regardless judging by the spike in lay odds just now!)

    Obviously it would be pure gambling, but does anyone take the chance on situations like this?

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    Shaun46 1

    If it’s a gamble do it with a free bet or just leave it the hell alone why risk the profit you have made as think of all the work it took you to get it. I hate losing the money I have made on a punt it starts me off on the day on a negative vibe and I hate days like that hence I don’t gamble all that much.

    MarkCorrigan 9

    The aim should be to achieve value. If you’re flipping a coin and getting odds of 2.5, then you should bet (regardless of whether you can do this risk free).

    As an example, everyone is so concerned with laying the acca bonuses. If you choose 5 selections all at odds of 1.25 – assume these are the true probabilities – each leg wins with probability 0.80 or 80%. The probability that your acca wins is 0.8^5 = 0.32768 or 32.768%. The probability that exactly one leg wins and you get your money back as a free bet is 5 x 0.8^4 x (0.2) = 0.4096 or 40.96%. As such, your acca only loses 26.272% of the time! Why would you be so concerned about laying off, as long as you find bets that are truly 1.25 (or close to exchange odds)? You need to get your head around risk management, yes, but you’re losing out on great value by refusing to take any risk at all.

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