Enhanced NBA Treble – Risk-Free Potential Profit
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Cavaliers, Spurs, OKC all to win was 19/20 now 6/4. Max £40
If you fancy a disturbed night you could make around £17 from this, lay prices 1.38, 1.07, 1.38 respectively, they’re playing at 00:05, 01:35, 02:30 too therefore you can lay off each leg individually.
You have to factor in your lay liability from each leg on top of your initial stake when laying the second and third legs, but even when doing so, you should be able to leave £17/£18 profit if the treble lands and £0 risk.
+0January 6, 2016 at 8:44 pm
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I can see the argument Jez, but I also like the fact that match betting allows me to make variance my bitch, rather than the other way round when not laying 😉
+0Yes, Jez, it would have been cracking. It’s certainly something I’m going to consider more. For now I have a £500 target each month, and I’ll more willingly take these risks once I hit my £500 target each month, or perhaps when my float is made of pure profit. I only started matched betting a couple of months ago, so am still early stages.
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Its a good idea to wait until your float is fully funded from mb – don’t rush into not laying just because it has been hugely profitable on this occasion: as tony correctly says you have to deal with significant variance by not laying – you could lose a lot of bets in a row before some wins come so you need need a good bank roll.
One way to reduce variance is to only not lay on low odds bets: for me if bettfair odds are <EVS and an enhanced price is >2 it’s a no brainier to max bet as more than half of these will win and I don’t have to give 5% to bf for the privalage.
+0Put the full 40 on and watched the games on 365 live streams, laid the cavs at 1.08, let spurs ride and laid the thunder at 1.1 before popping off to bed safe in the knowledge I’d be waking up to £35ish profit either way. Wish I’d just let it run now!
Thanks ks for the heads up guys! Will be looking out for these in the future.
Also of note I checked the odds for all the games before hand and put another acca on with marathon bet as they had unusually high odds on some matches, took the value with a £50 treble and did the same there for £25 profit, I laid at more conservative times with this bet as the odds weren’t quite so high but a successful experiment with in play laying. I realise I was pretty much just gambling here as the switch gd could have gone either way with the spurs match overlapping but being such favorites I was happy with the risk.
Finally it was at certain points in the cavs match it was better value to back the other team than to lay the cavs on smarkets but I couldn’t work out the maths before the price change so something to bear in mind.
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In a 2 outcome market, backing one side at X is the same as laying the other at:
(((1-(1/X))^-1)
Hope this helps. Smarkets is pretty bad for NBA in play most of the time, often bf is better even with the 5% commission.
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I can see the value in just betting the max and letting them run but i just dont have the funds to do so yet. Im more than happy with my £15 profit though.
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For those not ready / willing to let these ride, you could partially lay them off.
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Calling all NBA fans!
Is tonight’s enhanced acca (Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls and Housten Rockets) at 2.5 any good?
I see that none of them are as short a price individually as the teams from last night, so just wondering whether those in the know feel there is any value?
Both Hills and Sky are offering the treble at 2.5
+0Personally I think that it’s a decent treble, Boston I think should be beaten, 76ers were very poor, now improving, but Hawks should prove too good. Rockets have won 5/5 of last home matches vs Jazz and by decent margins. Both in pretty poor form, Rockets broke their losing streak against this Jazz team a couple of days ago, only winning by 2 points, they’re the weakest leg here imo but are also playing later.
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Sky now reduced to 2.3 🙁
+0Betfair has these individually at 1.24, 1.42 and 1.33. Giving combined odds of 2.34.
Therefore this is + eV but not a lot.+0
Ive stuck £25 on with WH. Not laying. No doubt I wont have the luck but would be a nice £37.50 profit if it comes in
+0Thanks for that formula Jez, I’ll stick it in a spreadsheet tonight for on the fly working out, in the heat of the moment last night I didn’t have time to work it out.
My US sports geek friend has advised me that the Bulls match will be the only dodgy one tonight so I’m going to have a go at this and monitor that one.
+0This is the nicest sleepless night I’ve had for a while!
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I could get used to this! Another £37.50 profit in the kitty! Cheers to those that replied last night 😀
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