Force Cash to Flow from Bookie to Exchange
I started matched betting just over a month ago and I am significantly down on my exchange accounts and up with the bookie which is obviously a problem.
I think this is mathematically inevitable because the free bets/money back specials always originate from the bookie – hence the expected value of these bets are positive and the money will end up in the bookie account in the long run.
E.g. taking the odds as the probability, if you consistently placed your free bets at odds of n, on average 1/n free bets will win and the bookies will have made a loss.
Does anyone have a consistent system where you can force the money to flow from the bookie to the exchange in the long run?+00December 3, 2015 at 8:59 pm
Cyber Hustler 0 December 3, 2015 at 9:10 pm
Keel I suspect that you have been backing short odds favourites, if that’s the case then it’s likely that in the long run you are going to have a profitable bookie account. Try backing long odds outsiders which obviously requires a larger bankroll to cover liabilities at the exchange but will increase the likelihood of you ‘losing’ at the bookies.+0dekoder 1 December 3, 2015 at 9:27 pm
I think the above is incorrect. From mathematical point of view the outcome is the same when betting with shorter and longer odds. With short odds you win more often but smaller amount and with longer odds you win less often but bigger amount.+1Cyber Hustler 0 December 3, 2015 at 9:32 pm
Thats a fair point dekoder. But do you have any suggested solutions for the original query+0Keel 0 December 3, 2015 at 9:47 pm
That’s what I though originally but I’ve found that not to be the case – yesterday, a bunch of my free bets came in at odds of 15+. Statistically, the longer the odds, the more the bookie will lose in the long run because you maximise your winnings relative to the stake not returned.
For example, take the placement of 100 free bets of £10 and assume that the odds represent the probability.
For odds at 5.00:
Probability that the bookie bet wins = 20%
Number of free bets won = 20
Payout at bookies (stake not returned) = (£10 x 20 x 5) – (£10 x 20) = 800
For odds at 100.00:
Probability that the bookie bet wins = 1%
Number of free bets won = 1
Payout at bookies (stake not returned) = (£10 x 1 x 100) – (£10 x 1) = 990
For anyone intending to do MB for a while, this inevitable accumulation in bookie balance is definitely a problem.+0Keel 0 December 3, 2015 at 10:02 pm
What do you guys think about using the Martingale system to temporarily force money out? I say ‘temporarily’ because I still believe in the long run you will have to withdraw from the bookie account at some point following a string of bookie bet wins.
1. Place a bet of £ X @ 2.00 at bookie, lay @ 2.00 (assuming no commission)
2. If the bookie bet loses, you’ve successfully transferred money to exchange
3. If the bookie bet wins, double the stake.
4. Repeat until bookie bet loses.
I’m going to give this system a try, hopefully it’ll delay the day I have to withdraw from the bookie.+0Nicolo Mac 4 December 4, 2015 at 12:13 am
Perhaps I’ve just been lucky but the majority of the time it goes to my exchange and when it does not, I just withdraw it and redeposit it elsewhere.+0betty 0 December 4, 2015 at 1:50 am
Real newby to matched betting so this might sound stupid but why is it bad if the money goes to the bookie instead of the exchange? Is that because on some offers you have to roll over you winnings in the bookie account?+0Longy 0 December 4, 2015 at 3:52 am
Your 2nd point of having to rollover some bonuses is valid. The main reason winning at the bookies is bad, is that makes it more likely they will restict/ban you from bonuses/close your account.
Bookmakers do not like winning punters especially ones they fail are offering them no action apart from the bonuses. Having live accounts with some bookies who are constantly offering bonuses is really worth it.+078naD 2 December 4, 2015 at 8:28 am
Keel the martingale idea works for me a lot. As long as you allow for around 5,6 or 7 (if odds of 2.0) bets in the cycle you’ll transfer the money out that way.+0Keel 0 December 4, 2015 at 2:54 pm
Nice, I’ll give it a try. So the stake you place at the bookies is around 1/150th of your available balance at the exchange then?+0beh 7 December 4, 2015 at 4:18 pm
~7/10 of my bets win at the exchange. Probably closer to 9/10 if you exclude qualifying bets as it’s obviously beneficial to look for higher odds on these.
Can only suggest you look beyond WDW markets. If you have sufficient cash to lay then there’s often some good odds to be had. Doing a lot more in play bets recently – first goalscorer, correct score, and under/over goals have a lot of options with decent liquidity.+0
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