Help with acca offer (get €10 if lost)
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Hi!
ComeOn is offering a €10 risk free acca bet min 3.0 odds on CL games.– Min 2-acca
– Min total odds of 3.0
– Only CL gamesI found these games:
3.45/3.7 Man City vs. Paris St-Germain
3.45/3.6 Atletico Madrid vs. BarcelonaI lay leg 1 at €9.38 (liability €25.31).
If leg 1 loses (bookie, exchange, cashback, total)
-€10.00 + €9.38 + €10.00 = €9.38
If leg 1 wins
€24.50 – €25.31 = -€0.81I underlay leg 2 at €30.45 (liability €79.31).
If leg 2 wins
€109.03 – €79.18 = €29.84
If leg 2 lose
-€10.00 + €29.84 + €10.00 = €29.84Is this right? Or am I doing anything wrong?
+0April 12, 2016 at 4:30 pm
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You need to reduce the 9.38 and the 29.84 values by a couple of percent to account for exchange commission when you lose at the bookies, other than that the figures look good to me.
I think there is a way to achieve the same financial outcome no matter what happens but I don’t know how to do that.
+0Nah this isn’t right.
You aren’t taking into account your losses from laying the first leg.
+0@Dave_Jones I’ve done that already.
@MbPunter How would I do that?I’ve done a spreadsheet for this offer, please tell me where I’m wrong:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ej9ib_jPPdtk4yMuKn6mcMMsHsCYhoR_CXiWNYM0jdQ/edit?usp=sharing
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@Dave_Jones I’ve done that already.I don’t think you have, you wrote:-
I lay leg 1 at €9.38 (liability €25.31).
If leg 1 loses (bookie, exchange, cashback, total)
-€10.00 + €9.38 + €10.00 = €9.38You don’t get 9.38 back from the exchange, they will take 2% comm off this value.
+0You have down £29.84 after leg 2. But you’ve already lost £25.31 laying leg 1. So your profit is only £4.53.
+0You wrote
If leg 2 wins
€109.03 – €79.18 = €29.84As MbPunter explained above you need to take account of your loss from laying leg 1.
So it should look like this
If leg 2 wins
€109.03 – €79.18 – £25.31 = €4.54Take a look at this post from MarkC where he explains how to do the math on sequential lays.
OK… here’s an example (using the simple lay strategy).
4 legs. All odds 1.5. Let’s say £25 bet.Leg 1: Lay £25. If it wins proceed to leg 2. If it loses, you have your £25 stake back and a 29.6% chance of getting the free bet.
Leg 2: Lay £37.50. If it wins proceed to leg 3. If it loses, you have your £25 stake back (37.50 = 25 + 12.50) and a 44.4% chance of getting the free bet.
Leg 3: Lay £56.25. If it wins proceed to final leg. If it loses, you have your £25 stake back (56.25 = 25 + 12.50 + 18.75) and a 66.7% chance of getting the free bet.
Leg 4: You’re now in a situation whereby if the leg loses you get the £25 free bet and if it wins you win £126.56 (25*1.5^4). Up to this point, you’ve invested 25 + 12.50 + 18.75 + 28.13 = £84.48. Let’s suppose you extract 80% of the free bet. Lay £71.04. This secures you £91.04 (£6.57 profit) in both cases: if it wins and if it loses.
Here is the thread it came from:-
https://matchedbettingblog.com/topic/wh-acca-insurance-example/page/4/#.Vw33fKT2bIV+0@Dave_Jones Sorry, you’re right. I did it on leg 2, but not leg 1. Thanks!
@MbPunter Damn, you’re right. It seemed too good to be true! I’ve fixed the problems now (I hope):So the strategy seems to be to either find odds at 1.0/1.0 for the first leg and ∞/∞ for the second leg to guarantee the €10 or punt the first leg with a risk free second leg?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ej9ib_jPPdtk4yMuKn6mcMMsHsCYhoR_CXiWNYM0jdQ/edit?usp=sharing
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You can lay bayern+barcelona at betfair. Using higher odds might be worse because of the bigger difference between back&lay odds.
If you lose your tip, you lose 10-refund. Cover this by laying (10-refund)/(1-betfair_commission).Alternatively solve the outcome equation to get equal profit regardless of win/loss.
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To simplify (and reduce EV I’m sure) could you not back the double then lay the acca at Betfair and treat as SNR in your matched betting calculator?
Just starting to get in to accas so take the above with pinch of salt.
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