WH Acca Insurance: Example

Hi all, there’s been plenty of discussion and scepticism of the ACCA insurance offers being profitable. I have decided to share an ACCA with Will Hill that I am placing today. If you’re not familiar with the T&Cs, please read them, but we are looking for 6 football legs and there is no odds requirement. If one leg loses, we get our stake back as a free bet. Finally, this month they are offering a 10% bonus on odds for 6 leg ACCAs… The first odds are from WH, and the second odds are on the exchange.

1. New Saints (Welsh) at 1.25 / 1.25
2. Arsenal at 1.30 / 1.30
3. Dunfermline at 1.22 / 1.23
4. Juventus at 1.17 / 1.18
5. Barcelona at 1.22 / 1.23
6. Atletico Madrid at 1.20 / 1.21

Using the exchange odds to calculate implied probabilities, we see that the probability that our ACCA wins is:
Pr(Wins) = 0.2849

The probability that exactly one leg loses and we get our stake back:
Pr(One loses) = 0.3988

And, of course, the probability that more than one leg loses:
Pr(Loses) = 0.3163

The maximum stake is £50 for the insurance. Our value of staking £50 is therefore (the 1.10 factor accounts for a 10% bonus; the 0.90 factor accounts for extraction rate which could be decreased if you like):

Value of £50 bet = 0.2849*3.396*1.10*50 + 0.3988*0.90*50 + 0.3163*0 = £71.16

In other words, we are paying £50 for £71.16 in expected value! Our expected profit is therefore £21.16. My approach is to never lay these as we lose out to commission in the long-run and I place frequently enough to even out (law of large numbers etc. etc.).

If you want to lay off an accumulator, like the one given above, you will need to ensure that none of the legs overlap – this allows you to treat each leg as an individual qualifying bet which you can continually lay off until one legs loses and you then have a free shot at a free bet.

I hope this helps!

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MarkCorrigan
15

January 1, 2016 at 1:01 pm

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78naD 4 January 5, 2016 at 10:58 pm

I thought I understand it from Mike then Mark’s example lost me again haha

Do we have any kind genius in here that could knock up a calculator for this? Or spreadsheet that would do the sums for us?

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stick 0 January 5, 2016 at 11:17 pm

Thanks Mark,
I have indeed made an error in my calcs. The return would be £90 less stake and lay costs would be about £20. I have deducted the stake and then added into the lay costs!! ….learning curve….. I Will not pretend to understand everything in your calc but I will task my 16 year old (just doing further maths now) !! to find a way to explain it to the ‘old man’ !!!
Many Thanks

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Andy 3 January 5, 2016 at 11:17 pm

Laying of each leg to make it risk free is actually easy maths and someone could probably make a calculator for it. You then play around with the stakes to guarantee a profit.

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Shaun46 1 January 5, 2016 at 11:34 pm

I wish I could get my head around it all I would like to see to get it is not so muchthe algebra that is being bandid around with P and L and Pr and probability maths never was much good at that just simple maths would do so I understand it better.

So in a 4 fold accumulator the maths side of it should look like this then
Bet £25 Win Bonus = ??% Free Bet = £??
1st Leg Back odds / Lay Odds = lay stake would be in simple maths using + – x or divide)
2nd leg same simple maths
3rd leg same simple maths
4th leg same simple maths

Total back odds = total of back odds added together
Total Lay odds = Total of Lay odds added together

Implied probability etc doesnt really matter because as match betters we don’t really care as long as we know what the maths is

Profit (most important part =£??

I have looked at all the calcs done sa far and not one of them just lays it out in simple expressional format, it doesn’t really need to be this complicated surely?

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Andy 3 January 6, 2016 at 12:19 am

Are you looking to lay of each leg.

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Shaun46 1 January 6, 2016 at 12:23 am

I have no idea Andy like I said until I see the maths on how it should be done so I can follow it, I don’t even know if I should do that. There is a lot of talk in this thread about it being simple maths but it is frying my brain lol

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 6, 2016 at 12:25 am

OK… here’s an example (using the simple lay strategy).
4 legs. All odds 1.5. Let’s say £25 bet.

Leg 1: Lay £25. If it wins proceed to leg 2. If it loses, you have your £25 stake back and a 29.6% chance of getting the free bet.

Leg 2: Lay £37.50. If it wins proceed to leg 3. If it loses, you have your £25 stake back (37.50 = 25 + 12.50) and a 44.4% chance of getting the free bet.

Leg 3: Lay £56.25. If it wins proceed to final leg. If it loses, you have your £25 stake back (56.25 = 25 + 12.50 + 18.75) and a 66.7% chance of getting the free bet.

Leg 4: You’re now in a situation whereby if the leg loses you get the £25 free bet and if it wins you win £126.56 (25*1.5^4). Up to this point, you’ve invested 25 + 12.50 + 18.75 + 28.13 = £84.48. Let’s suppose you extract 80% of the free bet. Lay £71.04. This secures you £91.04 (£6.57 profit) in both cases: if it wins and if it loses.

Of course, you can also choose to overlay/underlay/not lay as you go along… There’s various strategies. You also need to account for commission and for laying at worse odds.

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smothy17 0 January 6, 2016 at 1:07 am

I’ve done a bit of a risky way (you’s probably won’t like):
Picked 6 teams, 5 odds on, and then 1 slightly higher but still odds on to win… £25 returns £94.32
1. Odds 1.17
2. Odds 1.10
3. Odds 1.10
4. Odds 1.20
5. Odds 1.17
6. Odds 1.91

My plan is to let the first 3 ride, then lay the 4th, 5th and then the last one. Bit risky, but guarantee’s a higher profit if the first 3 win, which they should.. and if one loses, you’re still likely to get money back.

Lay 4. @ 1.25. £25. liability £6.25. total bet to date £31.25. if loses 75p loss (and all others win +£20 (80% of £25 free bet)) if win proceed…

Lay 5. @ 1.20. £32. liability £6.40. total bet to date £37.65. if loses break even (and all others win +£20(80% of £25 free bet)) if win proceed…

Lay 6. @ 2.00 £40. liability £40. total bet to date £77.65. if loses £78.40 + £20(80% of £25 free bet) = £98.40 = £21 profit

if win £94.32 = £17 profit

If any of 1-3 loses… do not lay 4-6

Does this seem a bit silly or? This is my first time doing it haha, so only doing £25, of course everything would double doing £50.

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betty 0 January 6, 2016 at 2:23 am

Money back as a free bet if 1 leg of a 4 leg acca lets you down on basketball and NBA on Coral.

Might be worth a look!

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78naD 4 January 6, 2016 at 10:20 am

smothy17 you’re basically gambling there so? So many times I’ve seen odds under 1.2 lose.

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78naD 4 January 6, 2016 at 1:06 pm

I’ve been searching for an online calculator for this because I cannot understand the math.

THERE is a way to lock in 20% profit from these regardless, as someone on here pointed out before.

I stumbled uponacca. generator a few minutes ago ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kzra-uFGTEo) but it’s £150 and It’s too much for me to pay right now.

Does anyone know of a free calculator anywhere for these?

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 6, 2016 at 1:09 pm

Do NOT pay for anything like this. You can create an excel sheet in less than an hour to do this for you…

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78naD 4 January 6, 2016 at 1:20 pm

haha but I can’t Mark I can’t grasp the math to work out how to ensure a profit for every acca.
I know the math might seem easy for you, but I can’t get my head around it.

I could just lay each section off individually and hope for the refund every one and then (which is actually 1 of the 4 methods on that website)

But the number 3 method of guaranteeing 20% profit, or £10 from a £50 acca everytime sounds like the holy grail.

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 6, 2016 at 1:28 pm

OK. The original acca example posted in this thread has an EV of +£21 on a £50 bet. That’s over a 40% return. You can take that expected gain and lay it off, guaranteeing close to a 40% return (net of commission). The easiest way to do this is through backward induction.

If we reach the final leg, what is the value? Knowing this value, we can lay off accordingly in the previous leg to guarantee a value. Knowing this value, we can lay off accordingly in the leg before that one… It goes on until the first leg.

Btw, if you plan on doing one £50 accumulator per day, you’re expected to pay around £2.50 in commission (at 5%) if you choose to fully guarantee a profit. That’s over £900 per year. Imagine doing several accumulators per day with various sites… This is why I choose not to lay.

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Andy 3 January 6, 2016 at 1:28 pm

Dan if you look at my acca example in a different thread i have shown the core method for guaranteeing a profit. From there all I do is underlay/overlay on certain bets to get the profit whatever the outcome.

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