WH Acca Insurance: Example

Hi all, there’s been plenty of discussion and scepticism of the ACCA insurance offers being profitable. I have decided to share an ACCA with Will Hill that I am placing today. If you’re not familiar with the T&Cs, please read them, but we are looking for 6 football legs and there is no odds requirement. If one leg loses, we get our stake back as a free bet. Finally, this month they are offering a 10% bonus on odds for 6 leg ACCAs… The first odds are from WH, and the second odds are on the exchange.

1. New Saints (Welsh) at 1.25 / 1.25
2. Arsenal at 1.30 / 1.30
3. Dunfermline at 1.22 / 1.23
4. Juventus at 1.17 / 1.18
5. Barcelona at 1.22 / 1.23
6. Atletico Madrid at 1.20 / 1.21

Using the exchange odds to calculate implied probabilities, we see that the probability that our ACCA wins is:
Pr(Wins) = 0.2849

The probability that exactly one leg loses and we get our stake back:
Pr(One loses) = 0.3988

And, of course, the probability that more than one leg loses:
Pr(Loses) = 0.3163

The maximum stake is £50 for the insurance. Our value of staking £50 is therefore (the 1.10 factor accounts for a 10% bonus; the 0.90 factor accounts for extraction rate which could be decreased if you like):

Value of £50 bet = 0.2849*3.396*1.10*50 + 0.3988*0.90*50 + 0.3163*0 = £71.16

In other words, we are paying £50 for £71.16 in expected value! Our expected profit is therefore £21.16. My approach is to never lay these as we lose out to commission in the long-run and I place frequently enough to even out (law of large numbers etc. etc.).

If you want to lay off an accumulator, like the one given above, you will need to ensure that none of the legs overlap – this allows you to treat each leg as an individual qualifying bet which you can continually lay off until one legs loses and you then have a free shot at a free bet.

I hope this helps!

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MarkCorrigan
15

January 1, 2016 at 1:01 pm

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vibez 0 January 15, 2016 at 10:54 pm

Mark, how do you calculate the odds of just one leg losing?

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mincing_lad 0 January 16, 2016 at 2:27 am

Work out the odds that bet 1 loses and the others win. Then work out the odds that bet 2 loses and the others win. And so on. Then add them all together.

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sypunterguy 0 January 16, 2016 at 6:25 am

Hi guys and thanks for the help already given, I’m in Australia so bookies etc will vary. After finally wrapping my head around these I’ve done a spreadsheet to calculated EV. I don’t think I can attach it so I’ll summarise here.

There are four bookies out here doing money back on a 4 leg accumulator. One allowed each weekend, at $50. (about 25pounds). Some have min odds of 1.10 (only affected Real Madrid at 1.07), some on one league only some on any mix.

My odds varied from 1.17 to 1.61 across the four bets. I’m not laying so have gone for heavy favourites only.

The four accumulators pay from 2.6 to 4.3 All four winners vary from 23% to 38%, bizarrely 3 wins probability only varies from 41.9% to 42.8% across the four bets. Obviously then less than 3 wins is 19% to 35% or the remainder.

According to my calculations all four accumulators give an expected value of from $68.28 to $69.24; or a profit of $18-19 or 37%.

Is it usual to see this much consistency? It appears to be an easy addition of $75 a week, or am i missing something?

If anyone wants the spreadsheet happy to email it.

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vibez 0 January 16, 2016 at 9:18 am

Yes please!

sickbot@mailinator.com

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mike j 13 January 16, 2016 at 12:59 pm

Just to let you guys know, rather than laying each bet i have been betting on double chance result at another bookie. Currently on leg 3/6 and have saved £11 doing it this way thus increasing profit if i make it to the final game

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 16, 2016 at 1:15 pm

How is betting double chance not the same as laying?

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mike j 13 January 16, 2016 at 1:38 pm

Normally you would lay each game off at an exchange.Each lay bet would cover the original acca stake plus the liability you lost on previous lay bets.

I have been finding better odds on the double chance market as opposed to the lay market. E.g

Leg 3: lay 58.31 @ 1.40 = 23.32 liability

Or bet 20 @ 3.0 double chance

If the lay bet looses you would lose 20 instead of 23.32. If the lay bet would have won then you would make 60 instead of 57.14 (2% comission)

So whatever the outcome you are better off.

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78naD 4 January 16, 2016 at 1:38 pm

It is the same as laying but if you have 30-40 accounts you’ll often find much better odds than laying on an exchange

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Andy 3 January 16, 2016 at 1:42 pm

mike – betting 20 @ 3.0 is £40 profit not £60.

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 16, 2016 at 1:54 pm

I understand what you’re saying, but conceptually laying and double chance are equivalent. Of course, it’s always possible to look for the best possible odds.

In your example, btw, laying at 1.4 is far superior to backing the opposite at 3.0. In a competitive market, 1.5 is the opposite to 3.0.

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mincing_lad 0 January 17, 2016 at 2:20 am

Spypunter, can you mail me the EXCEL. Which bookies are you using in Aus?

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mincing_lad 0 January 17, 2016 at 2:22 am

Mark C – Do you have a strategy for withdrawing money? I am assuming you must end up in profit at the the likes of William Hill. Do you just withdraw this or are you then doing bets transfer money to the exchanges to withdraw?

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sypunterguy 0 January 17, 2016 at 9:45 pm

mincing_lad email me pulpdvd at gmail dot com

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JoeBloggs 0 January 18, 2016 at 10:50 am

Hi Guys,

Some great tips here, I wanted to see if I have this worked out properly? Are these both mathematically correct to make the Accumulator profitable (both the figures given and the results if I have one loss or no losses:

Example 1, Laying off each low adds leg until 1 loses the bet, with a £25 free bet:

Team, Odd, Lay Odds, Lay Stake
Leg 1, 1.65 1.66, £23.82
Leg 2, 1.35, 1.36, £39.86
Leg 3, 1.45, 1.46, £54.50
Leg 4, 1.60, 1.61, £80.09
Leg 5, 1.07, 1.08, £129.94
Leg 6, 1.22, 1.23, £140.54

Possible Outcomes:

1) Should I not have a losing leg to the bet I have lost -£1.18
2) Should I have 1 losing leg to the bet, I get the £25 free bet and that is where I make the profit (around 80% of the £25)

Example 2, Engineering the Accumulator where Leg 1 being high odds (Laid off) and the others left to run (Not laid off):

Team, Odd, Lay Odds, Lay Stake
Leg 1, 5.00, 5.60, £41.21 (The lay stake is what I would normally lay, plus 80% of the expected £25 free bet)
Leg 2, 1.35, 1.36, £120.79
Leg 3, 1.45, 1.46, £165.16
Leg 4, 1.60, 1.61, £242.69
Leg 5, 1.07, 1.08, £393.74
Leg 6, 1.22, 1.23, £425.89

Possible Outcomes:
1) Should the first leg win at the bookies and not the exchange, I have lost -£3.89
2) Should the bet go to plan, I have my Leg 1 lose and the rest win, I can extract around 80% for my £25 free bet and get £20 profit
Any advice welcome please… and thanks in advance.

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topire 1 January 18, 2016 at 6:52 pm

Is this offer available in store as well or is it just online, I was thinking of doubling up my bets in store because the offer is so good

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