WH Acca Insurance: Example

• Hi all, there’s been plenty of discussion and scepticism of the ACCA insurance offers being profitable. I have decided to share an ACCA with Will Hill that I am placing today. If you’re not familiar with the T&Cs, please read them, but we are looking for 6 football legs and there is no odds requirement. If one leg loses, we get our stake back as a free bet. Finally, this month they are offering a 10% bonus on odds for 6 leg ACCAs… The first odds are from WH, and the second odds are on the exchange.

  1. New Saints (Welsh) at 1.25 / 1.25
  2. Arsenal at 1.30 / 1.30
  3. Dunfermline at 1.22 / 1.23
  4. Juventus at 1.17 / 1.18
  5. Barcelona at 1.22 / 1.23
  6. Atletico Madrid at 1.20 / 1.21

  Using the exchange odds to calculate implied probabilities, we see that the probability that our ACCA wins is:
  Pr(Wins) = 0.2849

  The probability that exactly one leg loses and we get our stake back:
  Pr(One loses) = 0.3988

  And, of course, the probability that more than one leg loses:
  Pr(Loses) = 0.3163

  The maximum stake is £50 for the insurance. Our value of staking £50 is therefore (the 1.10 factor accounts for a 10% bonus; the 0.90 factor accounts for extraction rate which could be decreased if you like):

  Value of £50 bet = 0.2849*3.396*1.10*50 + 0.3988*0.90*50 + 0.3163*0 = £71.16

  In other words, we are paying £50 for £71.16 in expected value! Our expected profit is therefore £21.16. My approach is to never lay these as we lose out to commission in the long-run and I place frequently enough to even out (law of large numbers etc. etc.).

  If you want to lay off an accumulator, like the one given above, you will need to ensure that none of the legs overlap – this allows you to treat each leg as an individual qualifying bet which you can continually lay off until one legs loses and you then have a free shot at a free bet.

  I hope this helps!

  +0

  

  MarkCorrigan

  15

  January 1, 2016 at 1:01 pm