WH Acca Insurance: Example

Hi all, there’s been plenty of discussion and scepticism of the ACCA insurance offers being profitable. I have decided to share an ACCA with Will Hill that I am placing today. If you’re not familiar with the T&Cs, please read them, but we are looking for 6 football legs and there is no odds requirement. If one leg loses, we get our stake back as a free bet. Finally, this month they are offering a 10% bonus on odds for 6 leg ACCAs… The first odds are from WH, and the second odds are on the exchange.

1. New Saints (Welsh) at 1.25 / 1.25
2. Arsenal at 1.30 / 1.30
3. Dunfermline at 1.22 / 1.23
4. Juventus at 1.17 / 1.18
5. Barcelona at 1.22 / 1.23
6. Atletico Madrid at 1.20 / 1.21

Using the exchange odds to calculate implied probabilities, we see that the probability that our ACCA wins is:
Pr(Wins) = 0.2849

The probability that exactly one leg loses and we get our stake back:
Pr(One loses) = 0.3988

And, of course, the probability that more than one leg loses:
Pr(Loses) = 0.3163

The maximum stake is £50 for the insurance. Our value of staking £50 is therefore (the 1.10 factor accounts for a 10% bonus; the 0.90 factor accounts for extraction rate which could be decreased if you like):

Value of £50 bet = 0.2849*3.396*1.10*50 + 0.3988*0.90*50 + 0.3163*0 = £71.16

In other words, we are paying £50 for £71.16 in expected value! Our expected profit is therefore £21.16. My approach is to never lay these as we lose out to commission in the long-run and I place frequently enough to even out (law of large numbers etc. etc.).

If you want to lay off an accumulator, like the one given above, you will need to ensure that none of the legs overlap – this allows you to treat each leg as an individual qualifying bet which you can continually lay off until one legs loses and you then have a free shot at a free bet.

I hope this helps!

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MarkCorrigan
15

January 1, 2016 at 1:01 pm

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Mark 1 January 3, 2016 at 3:50 pm

Thanks Mark, all I can say is St Etienne! Grr! Hopefully my higher stakes selection comes off later for the £50 free!

Can see this being a new tool in the matched betting (ish) toolbox.

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MatchBetter55 1 January 3, 2016 at 4:57 pm

No I meant underlay. I’ve been doing this method for ages with William Hill with an acca finishing every day. I do a mix of 25/50 accas with average profit of £8/£16 when I don’t have a loser. Higher when I have one loser.

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patrick
Blocked
12 January 3, 2016 at 5:45 pm

MatchBetter25, what do you mean by 25/50 accas.
If you underlay surely you lose if you have a loser.
A worked example would be very useful.

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Pickle 60 January 3, 2016 at 5:54 pm

Tried this short price 6 teamer today. First 5 won but then APOEL Nicosia have lost @1.1. Was that confident i was waiting for them to score to lay them at stupid odds and it never happened. Then tried to lay them when they got back to 1-1 and couldnt even find the game on betfair.

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 3, 2016 at 6:11 pm

Ah, tough lines. A tip for the future; try to do first 5 legs at low odds and the final leg at high odds (5+). If your first 5 legs win, you have a free bet (identical to that of bet365 £50 in-play offer)… You would not want to bet this at odds of 1.1!

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MatchBetter55 1 January 3, 2016 at 6:14 pm

£25 or £50.

For William Hill, I find 6 favourites where generally they will be below 1.25 each. For a £25 acca, I look for a loss when laying ideal stake of less than £5, which is pretty easy to find.

On the first game I underlay for the loss to reach £10 if the team loses/draws. This will generally reduce the loss to £2ish if my team wins. I do the same for the next 2/3 games. The loss on the acca should be minimal by now. On the 4th and 5th game, I generally lay the ideal amount to ensure I make a few pence loss. This does depend on who the teams are however – if it’s Bayern, Barca, PSG or a team less than 1.1, I’ll generally underlay.

By the final leg, I should have either a small loss or a small profit. I then underlay this selection so the profit if it wins plus the loss if it loses equals £20. This will mean an equal profit if the last leg wins or losses.

I pick a £10 loss as this will mean a £10 profit if only one leg loses.

It’s hard to explain – I do it by hand and takes time to work it out. However, it’s worth it for me – £8-10 profit per day from WH alone. I also do this for other bookies – Betbright, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Betfred, Totesport and Coral.

I wouldn’t recommend doing the underlay method unless you are comfortable laying off accas normally. You also need to ensure you have the time to lay each bet – if you don’t Kay and the leg loses, you will make a potentially large loss.

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Pickle 60 January 3, 2016 at 6:42 pm

Thanks Mark i read earlier you said that but it was after i put the bet on. Never mind at least ill get my tenner back.

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patrick
Blocked
12 January 3, 2016 at 8:41 pm

Where do I find the Acca’s coupon on William Hill ?

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tennispunter 2 January 3, 2016 at 8:59 pm

Hi Sam

Thank you for taking the time and trouble to go to print re ACCA’s and in particular the relatively complex nature of the maths that lies behind this, at least complex to me.

Whilst I get how to work the probability of a win or loss at odds of 1.25 – Win = 0.80 and loss = 0.20… I don’t understand your reference to P(1st leg loss, rest win)+P(2nd leg loss, rest win)+…

Would you mind spelling this bit out by way of an example for a dumbo like me – really struggling with what the ‘,’ in the brackets means you need to do mathematically

Many thanks in advance for your help

Rgds

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 3, 2016 at 9:43 pm

When he writes P(1st leg loss, rest win) he means P(1st leg loses and the others win) … i.e. P(1st loses)*P(2nd wins)*…*(6th wins)

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Coco Popo 0 January 4, 2016 at 12:00 am

Fantastic post Mark, thank you.

I’ve not done any Accas yet other than the StanJames £5 back ones, so really pleased to have an example.

On your example you have 6 low odds, in your experience is it best to have 6 low odds as at least one often lets you down? Or do you recommend the 5 + 1 higher odds, with the +1 day/time after?

Which are the best bookies offers for acca beginners?

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dekoder 1 January 4, 2016 at 4:20 pm

Thanks for the explanation and examples, it’s pushed me to have a try and learn about it.
Using the info and the example I’ve made a quick spreadsheet that calculates probabilities, E/V etc and all the numbers add up.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ddRl4Aioco8QEVvK_p6KuPvtth2x5XB4fpLOVPHhBOU/edit?usp=sharing

The 90% extraction rate for SNR free bet is a bit optimistic isn’t it?

@MatchBetter55:
In the example above with combined back/lay odds of 3.396/3.510 the loss on £50 is £2.30. What would your lay stake be for the first leg? And how you calculate it exactly – do you use just the first game back/lay odds or the combined odds? Or you would just roughly underlay, say £46 or £47 lay stake?

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 4, 2016 at 4:27 pm

Ultimately, it’s up to your own preferences and the odds available. If you have 5 legs at odds of 1.25, then it is optimal for the next leg to also be 1.25 (anything higher decreases the EV). If you can find 5 legs at <1.1 then EV is highest by choosing the 6th leg with high odds, which you can then lay off. In theory, you maximise your return by maximising the probability of achieving the free bet (exactly one leg losing) – as long as the odds are competitive/accurate.

The best two sites imo are PP and WH. WH has no minimum odds requirement, but 6 legs (max 1 bet per day). PP has a minimum odds requirement of 1.20 per leg, but only 5 legs (max 4 bets per day and they provide same offer on NFL/NBA which you can do every night).

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 4, 2016 at 4:30 pm

The extraction rate really just depends on the individual and the site. For me personally, I have never gone for less then 90% on WH – there’s always several 90%+ options on oddsmonkey with odds between 10 and 20 at the start of every horse racing day. Some sites offer awful odds though, which should be factored in, like you say.

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dekoder 1 January 4, 2016 at 4:51 pm

I’m reading WH Acca insurance T&C and it says: “Free bet can be redeemed on any football market or selection.” But they work on horses too?

I can’t find anything about the 10% bonus on WH, any tips where to look?

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