WH Acca Insurance: Example

Hi all, there’s been plenty of discussion and scepticism of the ACCA insurance offers being profitable. I have decided to share an ACCA with Will Hill that I am placing today. If you’re not familiar with the T&Cs, please read them, but we are looking for 6 football legs and there is no odds requirement. If one leg loses, we get our stake back as a free bet. Finally, this month they are offering a 10% bonus on odds for 6 leg ACCAs… The first odds are from WH, and the second odds are on the exchange.

1. New Saints (Welsh) at 1.25 / 1.25
2. Arsenal at 1.30 / 1.30
3. Dunfermline at 1.22 / 1.23
4. Juventus at 1.17 / 1.18
5. Barcelona at 1.22 / 1.23
6. Atletico Madrid at 1.20 / 1.21

Using the exchange odds to calculate implied probabilities, we see that the probability that our ACCA wins is:
Pr(Wins) = 0.2849

The probability that exactly one leg loses and we get our stake back:
Pr(One loses) = 0.3988

And, of course, the probability that more than one leg loses:
Pr(Loses) = 0.3163

The maximum stake is £50 for the insurance. Our value of staking £50 is therefore (the 1.10 factor accounts for a 10% bonus; the 0.90 factor accounts for extraction rate which could be decreased if you like):

Value of £50 bet = 0.2849*3.396*1.10*50 + 0.3988*0.90*50 + 0.3163*0 = £71.16

In other words, we are paying £50 for £71.16 in expected value! Our expected profit is therefore £21.16. My approach is to never lay these as we lose out to commission in the long-run and I place frequently enough to even out (law of large numbers etc. etc.).

If you want to lay off an accumulator, like the one given above, you will need to ensure that none of the legs overlap – this allows you to treat each leg as an individual qualifying bet which you can continually lay off until one legs loses and you then have a free shot at a free bet.

I hope this helps!

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MarkCorrigan
9

January 1, 2016 at 1:01 pm

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patrick
Blocked
6 January 1, 2016 at 1:45 pm

Thanks for that Mark.
Could you explain the maths that all 5 wins and also for exactly 1 loser.

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MatchBetter55 1 January 1, 2016 at 3:43 pm

The ACCA insurance offers are pretty much the best offer available IMO for consistant day to day profit.

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MarkCorrigan 9 January 2, 2016 at 9:33 pm

Heads up… There’s several 6 leg selections available on Will Hill at the moment which give +£35 in EV from a £50 bet.

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78naD 2 January 2, 2016 at 11:40 pm

Thanks for that Mark, very helpful.

Do you know a way to worth out the stakes handy if looking to hit a bonus/refund from these?

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Mark 1 January 3, 2016 at 2:11 am

Excellent example Mark, quite different to what I have done in the past and a he’ll of a lot simpler.

Two questions.

1. In your experience would it be worth putting in 5 extremely low odds teams and one higher odds team with the potential for loss and laying that team (engineering the acca so you would know in advance the previous results)? I’m not talking like such high odds as a newcastle win at arsenal today would have been but maybe an Everton win tomorrow (2.8)?

If the acca won great and if it went down by 1, hopefully the one you laid, you’d win on the exchange and also get the free bet.

2. Do you think that continually placing low odds accas and using this promotion singles you out for restriction? How long have you been doing it. I ask this because after 1 crack at the Boyle acca I got restricted. I know know from this forum you get restricted at Boylesports for faring but don’t want to jeopardise my Hills account.

Thanks again.

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sypunterguy 0 January 3, 2016 at 3:16 am

Thanks Mark, Ive always avoided them as ‘too hard’ will have to revisit it now.

Could you explain the ” Value of £50 bet = 0.2849*3.396*1.10*50″ calc, specifically the 3.396 figure? follow the rest of it.

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Nacho 0 January 3, 2016 at 7:59 am

Thanks, Mark. Fascinating stuff. I have followed Google to several statistics websites trying to get my head around the probability of “5 out of 6”. Ended up reading about “binominal distribution” but most of the material was based on events of equal chance. For events of unequal probability (such as this) I am not sure how you put it together to get 0.3988. I suppose there is a calculator for the purpose but I’d like to perfectly understand the maths before giving this a go.

I’m surprised that more people aren’t interested in this since – if the maths is solid – this equates to +£500 a year on a simple weekly £50 acca. There are a ton of bookies doing “acca insurance” and with the extra 10% at WH right now it makes real sense to investigate. Like other Mark says, one obvious question would be; what’s the chances of getting gubbed for this?

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sam 0 January 3, 2016 at 8:36 am

Win 5 out of 6: you have to go through all 6 possibility of winning 5 and losing 1 and then take the sum.

Implied probability of win = 1/odds, Implied probability of loss = 1 – 1/odds

P(1st leg loss, rest win)+P(2nd leg loss, rest win)+…+P(6th leg loss, rest win) = 0.3988 (haven’t checked the result, and there might be a faster way)

Win all 6: P(1st win)*P(2nd win)*…*P(6th win)
Lose 2 or more: 1 – P(win 5, lose 1) – P(win 6, lose 0)

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sam 0 January 3, 2016 at 8:48 am

Also @syp 3.396 are the odds wh gives you for that specific acca. Look up “expected value” first definition on wikipedia. (can’t edit above post)

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MatchBetter55 1 January 3, 2016 at 10:00 am

The easiest thing to do is lay each leg. If you underlay, you will make profits pretty much every time if you pick 6 hot favourites. I’d say the only way you wouldn’t make money would be 3 losses or more, which I’ve never had.

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patrick
Blocked
6 January 3, 2016 at 10:14 am

Why would you underlay ?
If the lecg lost you would not recover your original stake.

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78naD 2 January 3, 2016 at 10:19 am

Think he meant over lay?

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MarkCorrigan 9 January 3, 2016 at 11:30 am

1. You’re spot on. This is exactly what I try to do. Place 5 legs with low odds (1.10 or lower) and then a final leg with higher odds (often 5+). If you choose the final leg to be after the others, you can effectively treat this as a risk free bet and lay off to secure a profit – in other words, if the first 5 legs win, we have a free bet identical to the Bet365 offer. Hint: Take a look at the french cup games today… there’s a few with insanely low odds that allow us to achieve this.

2. I haven’t had any problems with the larger bookmakers with the insurance so far. I think consistently placing £25/50 accumulators with WH, PP etc. is only a good thing from their perspective.

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MarkCorrigan 9 January 3, 2016 at 11:31 am

The 3.396 figure, in this example, was the odds which WH were offering for the 6 leg accumulator (i.e. 1.25*1.30*1.22*1.17*1.20*1.22 = 3.396).

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MarkCorrigan 9 January 3, 2016 at 11:51 am

Hi Nacho, the easiest way to calculate the probabilities is to create a spreadsheet and follow the methodology that Sam gives, below.

Also, by creating the spreadsheet, not only will it save you time in the future, but it will help you to understand the probabilities and strategy better. Good luck!

Oh, in terms of being restricted, I’ve had no problems at all… I personally think consistently placing £25/50 accumulators with bookies will help you to avoid future restrictions.

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