WH Acca Insurance: Example

Hi all, there’s been plenty of discussion and scepticism of the ACCA insurance offers being profitable. I have decided to share an ACCA with Will Hill that I am placing today. If you’re not familiar with the T&Cs, please read them, but we are looking for 6 football legs and there is no odds requirement. If one leg loses, we get our stake back as a free bet. Finally, this month they are offering a 10% bonus on odds for 6 leg ACCAs… The first odds are from WH, and the second odds are on the exchange.

1. New Saints (Welsh) at 1.25 / 1.25
2. Arsenal at 1.30 / 1.30
3. Dunfermline at 1.22 / 1.23
4. Juventus at 1.17 / 1.18
5. Barcelona at 1.22 / 1.23
6. Atletico Madrid at 1.20 / 1.21

Using the exchange odds to calculate implied probabilities, we see that the probability that our ACCA wins is:
Pr(Wins) = 0.2849

The probability that exactly one leg loses and we get our stake back:
Pr(One loses) = 0.3988

And, of course, the probability that more than one leg loses:
Pr(Loses) = 0.3163

The maximum stake is £50 for the insurance. Our value of staking £50 is therefore (the 1.10 factor accounts for a 10% bonus; the 0.90 factor accounts for extraction rate which could be decreased if you like):

Value of £50 bet = 0.2849*3.396*1.10*50 + 0.3988*0.90*50 + 0.3163*0 = £71.16

In other words, we are paying £50 for £71.16 in expected value! Our expected profit is therefore £21.16. My approach is to never lay these as we lose out to commission in the long-run and I place frequently enough to even out (law of large numbers etc. etc.).

If you want to lay off an accumulator, like the one given above, you will need to ensure that none of the legs overlap – this allows you to treat each leg as an individual qualifying bet which you can continually lay off until one legs loses and you then have a free shot at a free bet.

I hope this helps!

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MarkCorrigan
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January 1, 2016 at 1:01 pm

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nabby68 0 January 9, 2016 at 1:29 pm

Still trying to get my head round the accas and the dominator spread sheet.

@swindonraf are you laying each one separately before the next one kicks off?

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JDUBU 8 January 9, 2016 at 2:03 pm

yeah +1 i would like to know the answer to that question too

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mike j 13 January 9, 2016 at 2:07 pm

i personally found that spreadsheet too complicated for me so i made my own. Any way i can upload an excel file???

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nabby68 0 January 9, 2016 at 2:30 pm

@mikej I think the only way to upload it is to put it on google docs and then provide the link here?

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mike j 13 January 9, 2016 at 2:40 pm

all done jordan

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dekoder 1 January 11, 2016 at 11:00 am

I’m having a difficult time finding suitable matches. In the next 2-4 days PL is running, championship and some cup games in spain, france and italy. But its hard to find 6 games that don’t overlap, with odds below 1.3 and that’s before checking if the lay odds are close. Anything I’m missing here?

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swindonraf 0 January 11, 2016 at 11:38 am

no, there arent any easy games for the next few days so a lot higher probability of more than one defeat

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Ice Magic 5 January 11, 2016 at 8:35 pm

What is the best bookie to try these with?
Bet bright give 100% stake free bet for 1 loss or 50% for 2 losses. Seems like a good deal but are their odds pants?
Really want to try this.
Surely the maths work no matter what games you pick? You just have higher qualifying losses and less chance of only having the one loss?

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stick 0 January 12, 2016 at 10:45 am

Have done the following calculation to get lay stake required to green up last leg of an Acca. I think I’ve got it but as usual I am just not confident in my schoolboy maths to be sure. Could someone take a look and see if I’m right or wrong please.
Details:
Stake 50
80% refund
Costs after 5th leg 105.76
Last leg lay odds 1.2
Returns 183.96 (inc stake)..so far I have…
Refund80% + x =return -stake/ 0.2
So.. 40 + x = 133.96 / 0.2
So.. 93.96 / 1.2x
X = 78.30

I hope this is right as I can then put away my algebra for dummies book ! Thanks

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 12, 2016 at 11:22 am

@stick

I don’t really get what you’ve done. Are you saying x is the amount you’re staking? If you stake £78.30 then you would have £118.30 (40 + 78.30) if the final leg loses and £168.30 (183.96 – 15.66) if the final leg wins. You want these to be equal if you’re guaranteeing a return from this final leg – i.e. if the final leg loses, you would end up with an overall loss of 40 + 78.30 – 105.76 – 50 = -£37.46.

I think the amount you should be laying is around £120. This would give you a £160 return, regardless of the outcome (or a £4.24 profit).

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stick 0 January 12, 2016 at 12:04 pm

Mark,
X should be the lay amount to green up after the 5th leg of a six leg acca. Obviously my calcs were wrong.So how do I arrive at the 120 figure .?
Thanks

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JeremyUsbourne 0 January 12, 2016 at 12:24 pm

Just so everyone knows the 10% bonus on 6 leg accumulators from hills is NOT the same as timesing the odds by 1.1 – it’s 10% bonus on profit from the acca only. This will make a subtle difference to the required calculation to maximize guarenteed profit, as well as slightly reducing EV regardless if you lay or not.

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mincing_lad 0 January 13, 2016 at 5:29 am

Where is everyone placing these? I’ve done a couple of WH and Ladbrokes only had 1 money back from 4 at the moment and no wins. (i’m not laying them off as Mark suggested). But think I need to get some volume going to get a law of averages over high numbers going.

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vibez 0 January 15, 2016 at 9:44 pm

You can’t multiple the backodds by 1.10 as the 10% applies to the profit only and not the stake. The correct formula to add on the 10% is

(backodds-1)*1.1+1

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vibez 0 January 15, 2016 at 10:52 pm

mark, how do you work out the odds of just one leg losing?

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