WH Acca Insurance: Example

Hi all, there’s been plenty of discussion and scepticism of the ACCA insurance offers being profitable. I have decided to share an ACCA with Will Hill that I am placing today. If you’re not familiar with the T&Cs, please read them, but we are looking for 6 football legs and there is no odds requirement. If one leg loses, we get our stake back as a free bet. Finally, this month they are offering a 10% bonus on odds for 6 leg ACCAs… The first odds are from WH, and the second odds are on the exchange.

1. New Saints (Welsh) at 1.25 / 1.25
2. Arsenal at 1.30 / 1.30
3. Dunfermline at 1.22 / 1.23
4. Juventus at 1.17 / 1.18
5. Barcelona at 1.22 / 1.23
6. Atletico Madrid at 1.20 / 1.21

Using the exchange odds to calculate implied probabilities, we see that the probability that our ACCA wins is:
Pr(Wins) = 0.2849

The probability that exactly one leg loses and we get our stake back:
Pr(One loses) = 0.3988

And, of course, the probability that more than one leg loses:
Pr(Loses) = 0.3163

The maximum stake is £50 for the insurance. Our value of staking £50 is therefore (the 1.10 factor accounts for a 10% bonus; the 0.90 factor accounts for extraction rate which could be decreased if you like):

Value of £50 bet = 0.2849*3.396*1.10*50 + 0.3988*0.90*50 + 0.3163*0 = £71.16

In other words, we are paying £50 for £71.16 in expected value! Our expected profit is therefore £21.16. My approach is to never lay these as we lose out to commission in the long-run and I place frequently enough to even out (law of large numbers etc. etc.).

If you want to lay off an accumulator, like the one given above, you will need to ensure that none of the legs overlap – this allows you to treat each leg as an individual qualifying bet which you can continually lay off until one legs loses and you then have a free shot at a free bet.

I hope this helps!

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MarkCorrigan
15

January 1, 2016 at 1:01 pm

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 6, 2016 at 1:33 pm

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 6, 2016 at 1:33 pm

Your method is slightly different to that which Dan is talking about. In your example, if the first 2 legs lose you breakeven. Dan is referring to guaranteeing an identical profit regardless of the outcome of any legs.

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78naD 4 January 6, 2016 at 1:41 pm

Andy is your method usually locking in 30-40% profit of the stake everytime?

Provided that the first 2 legs don’t lose as Mark pointed out?

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dekoder 1 January 6, 2016 at 1:52 pm

@MarkCorrigan
In your example above how do you calculate subsequent lay stakes?
Is it acca stake + liabilty lost(so far)?

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 6, 2016 at 1:58 pm

It depends on what you want to achieve. Laying acca stake + liability lost would be the same as Andy’s example in the other thread I guess. If you literally want to guarantee a profit which is identical for every possible outcome, you would need to use backward induction as described above. It would probably be pointless posting an example for it as there’s too many permutations in a 5-leg accumulator… It’s easier to construct an excel sheet and use solver.

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JeremyUsbourne 0 January 6, 2016 at 2:01 pm

Trying to guarantee every single acca will be in profit is not necessary. Think of it like the money back horse offers which are posted on this blog, when laying these accas leg by leg you pay a qualifying loss and get paid when only only leg loses, which is profitable in the long run as the qualifying loss is less that the payout times its frequency.

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Andy 3 January 6, 2016 at 2:03 pm

Dan 30-40% is too high, you would very good back/lay odds to achieve that. From my last 4 accas that the 1st leg won I have averaged about 25%.

I do not aim to break even when they do lose as that method, I alter some of the lay stakes to guarantee a profit. Laying more once a leg loses, and overlaying sometimes on the 1st leg depending on the odds.

Also underlaying if odds are higher than 1.6 and not the 1st or last leg.

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Andy 3 January 6, 2016 at 2:09 pm

You can guarantee a profit even when 2 or more lose, my last william hill acca made £8 profit from a £20 stake after the last 2 legs lost. It depends what method you use and whether you want to accept any loss.

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dekoder 1 January 6, 2016 at 2:16 pm

All I want to achieve for now is to not lose (much) money in the first few I do. All I’d like to do is to get to the later legs with small loss.

I think your tactic of not laying and saving on commission is the right way after getting some experience with it. I don’t care for identical profit for each scenario, I understand that with big enough number of bets it evens out.

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MarkCorrigan 15 January 6, 2016 at 2:29 pm

I would recommend the strategy you alluded to then. Just lay your initial stake + any previous liability (discounted for commission) as you go along and you won’t lose anything.

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78naD 4 January 6, 2016 at 2:29 pm

What were you laying for there Andy? laying for your stake + 30-40% profit?

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Andy 3 January 6, 2016 at 2:38 pm

What do you mean, are talking about my example in the other thread?

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78naD 4 January 6, 2016 at 2:47 pm

You can guarantee a profit even when 2 or more lose, my last william hill acca made £8 profit from a £20 stake after the last 2 legs lost. It depends what method you use and whether you want to accept any loss.

this one

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Andy 3 January 6, 2016 at 2:58 pm

I was basically following the method i wrote in the other thread but overlay after one leg lost because i knew i could get 80% of the free bet if only one lost. So if the last leg won I would have also made £8 profit .

I also will have overlayed the whole way through because of the 10% win bonus which added extra profit.

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mike j 13 January 6, 2016 at 4:40 pm

Ive been experimenting in excel and came to this situation:

£40 acca @ 9.15 odds = £366
First 5 games won, currently lost £62.45 by laying every game (+40 original bet)

Last game bet is for draw @6.8 lay odds team A vs team B

Options: lay £105.54 @6.8 = £34 if lay bet wins (refund) or -£302.76 if acca wins

What if we did the last lay bet in play:- possibilities
1) draw seems likely, lay odds drop to 3.0. Laying £105.54 would return £34 if lay bet wins or £92 if acca wins

2) Draw seems unlikely. Team A is 2-0 at 75mins in. We can lay £105.54 @ any odds to return £34. Could we then bet a further £x on the draw to cover ourselves just in case team B came back to 2-2 draw.

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