Laying Horses
-
I know this is the matched betting section, but didn’t think it belongs in Chit-Chat
Anyone else lay horses?
Now that my matched betting income has dwindled, I thought I would give it a go for small money.
I know its obviously gambling but it’s obviously a lot easy to pick a horse that doesn’t win.So far I’m £180 up. I’ve laid 26 horses, 22 have lost and only 4 won.
Seems to me with a good knowledge of horse racing this could be a good way to boost income……….
At the moment I’m sticking to lower odds horses and only £10-20 stakes. Average odds are 4.0
Just wondered what extra things can I look out for?
Was thinking about the weather and so on making things less predicable etc
At the moment I’m just guessing after reading the racing post app, but I’d love to improve my chances.+2June 15, 2016 at 1:18 pm
-
-
New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Playing with fire today…………..
Beacon Rock in the 15.05 Ascot – Laid £20 at 5.1
A rather scary £82 liability+0Topire,an exchange is also a bookie by definition.And there is commission to pay on any winnings.
If we are talking about outsiders the spread between the back and lay odds increase as the price increases.
What Ice Magic is trying to do is doomed to failure over the longterm.+0I agree that commission can diminish some of your edge but the comparison to roulette at a casino is wrong, you can’t have an edge over a roulette wheel but you can have an edge laying on an exchange.
+1How can you have an edge on laying on the exchange.
The only edge you can have is inside information .
Please explain what you mean.+0What I’m saying is that you have an edge if you can accurately price a race. For example if horse A has a 20% chance of winning its odds should be 4/1 or 5.0 on the exchange. If it’s odds are shorter than 5.0, for example 2.0 and you lay the horse you will win in the long run. If it’s odds are great than 5.0, for example 8.0, you back the horse and you will win in the long run. That’s what I mean by an edge.
+0
I dont think that gives you a edge at all. I tend to believe the lay market is fairly accurate rather than rely on my instinct of what price something should be. Id say thousands of people are likely to be more accurate than me.
+0Pickle you’re wrong what I just explained is literally the definition of what an edge is. If thousands of people are better at pricing the market than you are then you shouldn’t be laying horses. You say that the market is fairly accurate this is true when the race starts but the fact that price can steam from 8.0 to 3.0 in the 15 minutes before the start of the race show that the market is not always accurate and that opportunities arise if you know what you’re doing.
+0Get regular offer updates, tip and tricks, big offer alerts and more straight to your inbox.
The true chance is not set in stone.
Its just someone’s opinion.+0The probability of a horse winning a race is set in stone and professional gamblers and bookies have ways of estimating it very accurately that’s how they make their money. Dismissing it as just an opinion is silly
+0if the probability of a horse winning is set in stone, why do bookies constantly update their prices (almost always to reflect the exchange from what I’ve seen)?
+0Because the people who set the odds for bookies are terrible they don’t get paid much more than 20,000 per year. Any trader worth their salt works for themselves rather than bookies because it is much more lucrative for them. Lots of bookies keep an eye on the exchange and set their odds in relation to that because they can’t accurately price the market themselves.
+0Pickle you’re missing the point, the reason the price moves on the exchanges is largely due to sharp gamblers. If the the price is higher than it should be sharps back it and the price steams, when the price is lower than it should be sharps lay and the price drifts. Eventually the price comes to an equilibrium where there is no value in backing or laying and that price represents the true odds of the horse
+0
I agree on that. I wouldnt just lay a horse anyway. Far too risky for my liking. Im still managing to get away with backing horses higher than the lay price close to the off time risk free. Not sure how long ill last but ive been making a few quid doing it.
+0
Well I’m just gonna a have to stick with my instincts for a laugh and see how it goes. Much better day today. 4 horses laid which all lost. £50 profit less commission.
I know you guys are right that I’ll get caught out in the end, but I find this so more attractive than matched betting. Sometimes it’s a load of effort looking out for offers and making £3 here and there.
+1
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.
